Thank God. I’m still yet to win a bet since the 2nd day of the Tourney but by golly has it been a journey. The closest I’ve come to a win was on that UNC/Oregon over at 153. That was a rarity, have never seen something like that. FOUR missed free throws in a row to stay at a push. FOUR.
It feels motherfucking wonderful to be a free man after that. No more Basketball=No obligations to adhere to. All we have now is some baseball whenever our spidey senses go off. It’s the good life. I love me some Baseball parlays.
Matt’s a big baseball guy. Let’s see what he’s working with.
And that wraps up college basketball season. Clearly not my best work. To be completely honest basketball has always been my least favorite thing to play. But baseball, there is nothing better than watching a baseball game with vested interested. I also find it the most interesting in terms of how lines are set and move in the money-line focused environment.
Lotta people always say the ground rules are never lay any juice above -130, bet daily, and fade the public. Personally I lay juice up to -170, sometimes higher later in the season, because I think I will end up taking enough underdogs over the course of the year to end up at -110 anyway. Betting daily I’m all for though. The early goings of the season it has seemed like the books have been moving with early bettors instead of trying to stay ahead of them in most cases.
Today poses two contradictory examples:
- 1:05PM: Braves, Foltynewicz +125 @ Pirates, Nova -145
- Here we saw the Pirates open up at -145, see 60+% of the action, and hold strong right at -145. Basically, the betting market saw an error and the books didn’t give a shit. I am bullish on Folynewicz, he’s got a live arm and is looking to prove himself. I also think the Braves could see a little positive mean regression over the course of the season. Pick: Braves +125
- 4:10PM: Dodgers, Ryu -145 @ Rockies, Freeland +125
- This line opened at Dodgers -110, saw 60% of action, and steamed up to -145. Here, the market saw a an error, and the books quickly adjusted to it. This move, coupled with the total of 12 has me thinking that Freeland won’t look too hot today against an improved Dodger line up. Pick: Dodgers -145
- 6:40PM Giants, Cain -115 @ Padres, Perdomo -105
- Little more simplistic here, I had the Giants last night, watched the game, ripped up my ticket, and think that they can get it back for me here. No sizable pitching edge in starters, but the bullpen and line-up discrepancy is wide. Pick: Giants -115
- 7:05PM Yankees, Severino -110 @ Orioles, Jimenez -110
- I’m a Yankee fan and don’t fade my teams but that doesn’t mean I can’t tell you to. If Severino isn’t ahead of Pineda in the rotation it is fairly safe to say he hasn’t been looking great. Ubaldo can still string a couple innings together with experience and the O’s can flat out mash. Fuck man. Not writing pick.
Leans, Leans, Leans: Nationals -185, Cubs -180, Royals +155 (what the fuck happened to the Royals?) and White Sox -120
Time for Balls’ Baseball takes
- Yankees/Orioles Over 9
- Camden is a bandbox and a half. Give me Ubaldo Jimenez against Luis Severino please. Homeplate may be run around more than Jenny in Forrest Gump.
- Nationals -1.5 -110
- -110 are the typical spread odds so I’ll take that with Mad Max on the mound. How can the Phillies possibly hit Scherzer? My only doubt here is that Velasquez mows down the Nationals, but I’ll take Max anyday. Big fan of baseball runlines so that’s my first ever.
- Reds/Cardinals Over 8
- Amir Garrett on the bump. Wild. I remember when he played basketball for my hometown team of St. John’s. I don’t think any former member of the Red Storm can be a good player in the MLB (sans John Franco). Loving this over.
We’re done for this week. Today is the 3 week anniversary of the last bet I’ve won. Here’s to changing that this week. Good luck everyone, win some cash for me. As always you can find me and Matt on Twitter for questions, comments, or concerns @glenny_balls and @mbrowner55