Rangers, Habs On Crash Course For A 2014 Eastern Conference Final Rematch
Regardless of the Rangers recent 6-week struggles & the fact that they’ve morphed into last year’s disappointing version of themselves after a promising 50 games or so, they’re in the dance. That was never really a question though. NY has coasted throughout a majority of the year stuck in that WC1 spot – not good enough to bang with the heavy hitters but just skilled enough to stay above the non-powerhouses. Among infinite question marks about Lundqvist, their D corps & a disappearing act from a slew of forwards they now face the “easy” draw in the East. Realistically though, this first round sure as shit doesn’t look as easy as it did a month ago.
A trip to Montreal will most likely kick off the Rangers’ postseason & if you’re a fancy stat nerd, this is a nightmare matchup. The Habs excel across the Corsi board. It’s extremely difficult to generate chances against the Canadiens & if you do, there’s Carey Price waiting patiently to turn the puck away. It hasn’t been another Vezina/Hart-type campaign for him, but Price is still in his prime & unquestionably among the league’s elite. The Habs go as he goes. He was dominant to start the season, ran cold for the middle but has found his A+ form after Claude Julien took the reigns from Therrien in mid-February. It’s no coincidence the team’s record has followed suit – and with the Rangers offense a shell of their earlier selves, a white-hot Price is the last thing they wanna see. Goals will come at a premium for NY – unless, you know…
The overall special teams numbers look pretty similar, but lately it’s been night & day – specifically on the penalty kill. Julien’s got his Canadiens doing everything right. They’ve ceded just 5 PPG against in 19 contests since his hiring & he’s turned a reckless team under Therrien’s watch into the league’s most disciplined. That’s especially impressive when you’ve got Shaw & Ott on your roster. The Habs simply haven’t given opponents many man-advantage opportunities, which doesn’t bode well for a Blueshirts power play that’s the one thing finally hitting stride for them.
On the flipside, I’m not sure the Rangers PK can stop anyone – let alone a PP unit led by Weber & Pacioretty. Both squads are right around even in terms of 5×5 goal diff of late, so if you want to find the one defining reason that explains NY’s struggles it’s clearly shorthanded play. Allowing 15 PPG in 17 games ramps up the pressure on a young, struggling offense when you’re basically down 1 every night before the puck even drops. In a series that projects to be low-scoring (unless the Rangers D implodes which is certainly possible), special teams can make all the difference. Advantage, Habs.
The Blueshirts have been the league’s best road squad all year while being exceptionally bad at MSG lately, so skating as the lower seed is actually a benefit. Still, Montreal isn’t the ideal spot to travel. Habs fans will be rabid enough as it is after America’s Hat watched last year’s postseason go on without a single team from Canada. Add to that the “revenge” factor against a Rangers team that, in their eyes, cheaply derailed their deepest run since Price became a stud & you got yourselves the epitome of a hostile environment. Since their 2014 ECF meeting, NY has dropped 7 of 9 to the Canadiens including all 3 tilts this season. Confidence for those across the northern boarder has gotta be through the roof & rightfully so.
So why am I predicting Rangers in 6? Well for starters, I’ll have my fingers crossed & say a lot of prayers. I also know what I saw throughout the first 2/3 of the year. It seems like forever ago, but it was only 6 weeks when no team outside of Washington had more wins than these Blueshirts. Only the Caps & Pens scored at the same pace. Lundqvist’s best month of the season was just last month. I’ve seen nothing recently that tells me NY can put it all back together in time, but I simply can’t write them off. Their core is unflappable – so even-keeled it’s actually a detriment at times – but they won’t be rattled. With memories of last year’s playoff embarrassment soon to be rekindled there’s no way they can allow another one-and-done.
Are they good enough to represent the East in June? Of course I’ll be pulling for it, but it’s doubtful. So the way I see it anything past this series is icing on the cake. While I’d like the Rangers second-round chances against any of Ottawa, Toronto or Boston, the result of that subsequent matchup carries much less weight in terms of proving this team’s core is anywhere near legit contender status. It’ll be a long, long summer in Rangerstown if NY avoids a first-round Metro buzzsaw & still don’t skate more than 7 games. Knock out a division winner though who closed their season on a hot streak & has had your number – now we’re seeing some promise. If the Rangers play anywhere near their best, they’re a better team than Montreal. They’ve got just 5 games left on the regular season docket to figure out how to get there – but they will. They HAVE TO. If not, keep your fingers away from the window sill.
Check out my debut on Spittin’ Chiclets released this morning for some more Rangers playoff talk.