Barstool’s Preview of USMNT vs Panama

Sam's Army3/28/2017 6:25 PM

Sam’s Soccer Safe Space for Stoolies

Hi haters,

SUCK IT HONDURAS! COMIN FOR THAT ASS GERMANY! GIMME ARGENTINA! YOU NEXT BRAZIL!

Yep, nope, let’s pump the brakes a little bit there, pod’ner. Beating up on one of our Central American neighbors is always nice, and in this instance can perhaps even be a “great” result considering the pressure, but as discussed in last week’s preview we should always beat up on teams like Honduras at home. A 6-0 result is nothing to sneeze at, and not only helps our goal differential but also should instill some much-needed confidence in the USA’s attacking prowess that could leak back into our defensive unit (where it would be particularly useful – and possibly needed).

Anyway, as it stands, here is the Hexagonal table:

Quick reminder: top three nations qualify for World Cup 2018 in Mother Russia automatically, and fourth place will play the fifth place finisher in AFCON qualifying in a home-and-home to slip in the backdoor. [Note: to clear up some confusion, CONCACAF used to play Oceania in the playoff but the format was changed such that regional organizations are drawn against one another randomly… this time around we got AFCON.]

One win from three games is a helluva lot better than zero wins from two games, and let’s not even discuss how it compares what we would have been facing if we had zero wins from three games. But advancing to the 2018 World Cup in Pootyville is still far from secure. But before we take a look at what’s what for the game tonight, let’s get ourselves in the right frame of mind:

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USMNT

PANAMA vs USA
Time: 9:00 pm CT
TV: beIN Sports
Location: Panama City, Panama

“So what exactly is at stake with tonight’s game?” you might be asking. If so you’re in luck because here are some fancy little statistics the nerds over at FiveThirtyEight cooked up:

I’ve made fun of these “odds” ever since they put the first one out after we lost to Mexico since the only right answer is “100%” and anything else is inconceivable, but let’s at least accept the figures as being indicative of how hard/easy the road will be going forward depending on how we fare against the Panamanians.

PANAMA

Your boy Sun Tzu once spoke about the importance of knowing thyne enemy, so let’s take a quick look at Panama.

When you think of the country only two things come to mind (if you have a brain): the canal and Manuel Noriega. One is a 48-mile waterway that is vital to international shipping and trade, the other was one of the OG bad hombres who made a name for himself smuggling drugs, killing people and ruling Panama through undemocratic means between 1983 and 1989 – right up until the moment he was no longer considered useful to be a useful operative by the CIA, at which point Uncle Sam swooped in and invaded his country, put his ass in jail and “restored” “rightful” “ownership” of the country to the Panamanian people.

Fun fact: Noriega is still alive – albeit only barely – and in the intensive care unit of a Panama City hospital after being discharged from prison in January and undergoing a less than successful surgery to remove a benign tumor. Tough break.

Now that we’ve all had our daily dose of learning, here’s what to watch for from Panama in tonight’s game:

The team has been a bit schizophrenic to begin the hex, winning on the road at Honduras, holding Mexico to a draw, then finding a way to lose to Trinidad & Tobago on Friday night. Whoops. Without boring you with too much detail, the team will be without their big, physical, old-balled striker Blas Perez up top, which is nice I guess, but it should be a different game in the midfield. Whereas Honduras essentially conceded the middle of the field and hoped to nick something on flash counter attacks, Panama will try to clog things up a bit. That will mean a much sterner test for guys like Michael Bradley and whoever else Arena decides to play alongside him (more on that in a second).

Player to watch: San Jose Earthquakes midfielder Anibal Dogoy, who has been in good form in MLS and has the speed to cause some problems for USA’s CB pairing.

USTMNT

H/t Daniel

Quick reminder of the list of absentees for tonight’s game:

Fabian Johnson (injured)
Bobby Wood (injured)
DeAndre Yedlin (injured)
John Brooks (injured)*
Sebastian Lletget (injured)*
Jordan Morris (injured)*
Michael Orozco (injured)*
Gyasi Zardes (injured)
Eric Lichaj (injured)
~~Jermaine Jones (suspended)~~
~~Timmy Chandler (suspended)~~
Brad Guzan (new babydaddy)

That is a depressingly long list if we’re being honest, and three things stand out about the new additions(*): Lletget scored and was playing well so tough time to go down but at least we have ready replacements available; Morris’ departure increases the odds my boy Wondo sees action tonight, and god help us if he does; the departure of Brooks who suffered a broken bone (just kidding he has a sinus infection) creates the biggest problems.

STARTING XI

DEFENSE

Don’t let the shutout fool you, the USMNT defense experienced a number of extremely shaky moments on Friday, and only crap finishing from Honduras kept them from tallying at least a goal or two.

As for how we lineup tonight, this is the part where I would normally start off by making a prediction about how Bruce Arena is likely going to move some guys around to deal with the absence of Brooks. However, somebody got himself some well-placed SAUCES

who confirm that Tim Ream is going to step in as a like-for-like insertion for John Brooks’ at CB next to Omar Gonzalez, thus leaving Geoff Cameron to roam the wing at RB. The last question on defense is whether Bruce sticks with Jorge Villafaña, who did a competent job against Honduras, or if he decides to go with someone who has been there and done that by sticking either DMOBB (DM old balls Beasley) or San Zusi (the killer of Panamanian hopes and dreams in 2013) in there instead. I’ll guess he opts for cohesiveness and speed over wisdom and experience, giving Villafaña another start.

(Note: I’m not a huge fan of this backline. Cameron had an unusually poor game on Friday and Gonzo was NOT GOOD AT ALL, suggesting that moving GC to CB and inserting someone like Zusi at LB might not be an awful idea. Another alternative – albeit a longshot given Arena’s conservative nature – could be to replace Gonzo with Walker Zimmerman, who has looked great in MLS thus far. My SAUCES indicate these aren’t his radar though, so it is what it is.)

MIDFIELD

Overall, it was a solid performance from the midfield last week. Perhaps the highlight was Michael Bradley dropping his balls directly on my forehead in response to something I tweeted in the 25th minute:

To which he immediately responded by scoring a goal in the 27th minute.

But here’s the damn thing about Bradley: yes, he scored and no, he didn’t have a bad game. But aside from scoring he certainly didn’t have a very good game. He did a lot of the same stuff – eg, insisting on playing a negative style (always looking first to pass sideways or backwards) and committing needless giveaways – that people have been complaining about for years. So we’ll give him a pass since he was not “bad” and getting on a scoresheet is a big bonus… but if anybody is pointing to that game as “vindication” of Bradley, they are an idjit.

Meanwhile, in other news related to our midfield, the votes are in and the judges have issued an official ruling: Pulisic will be the best American player in history. Hype Train is dead. All aboard the Legit AF Train… chugga chugga, chugga chugga, chugga chugga

Which is to say that Bradley and Pulisic are locked into the starting XI for tonight, though who joins them is less clear. Darlington Nagbe didn’t fill up the stat sheet on Friday but quietly played a very good game (albeit without having to worry about playing much defense) and likely deserves another start.

The fourth midfield slot is more of a crapshoot. The candidates include:

– Alejandro Bedoya – safe, played well vs Honduras but limited upside
– Kellyn Acosta – talented but inexperienced
– Jermaine Jones – talented and experienced but aging and can be a loose canon
– Sacha Kljeistan or Dax McCarty – experienced but not in greatest form

Tijuana’s Paul Arriola is another option but can’t imagine Arena passing him up on the original roster but then bringing him in as an injury sub and inserting him directly into starting XI.

I’m honestly not sure what Arena is going to do here. The biggest question mark is Jones. If Klinsmann was still at the helm I’d put all my money on JJ starting. I’m not sure that Arena has the same “come hell or high water” faith in Jones though. In fact, the coach could go in a totally different direction with a 5-MF set (perhaps holding Dempsey out and inserting him as a “super sub” for the last 30 minutes of the game or so), but I’m going to take a wild stab at it and say that he sticks with the same four that played most of the Honduras game, meaning Bedoya gets the nod.

(Note: unlike on defense I’d be more or less fine with whoever Arena decides to go with as the fourth midfielder, and though I’d be a bit disappointed if he sits back into a 4-5-1 that could be okay provided guys like Pulisic are given a long leash to support and make runs off Altidore. I do think Nagbe deserves another start though, and think it’d be a mistake to relegate him to the bench.)

FORWARDS

The options – Jozy, Deuce and Wondo – are extremely limited. Jozy played well as the setup guy against Honduras and is locked into the lineup for tonight. My guess is that Arena will also start Dempsey coming off his hat trick on Friday. As always, if Wondo is in the XI we burn the fucking place down.

PREDICTION:

I woke up in a cold sweat early this morning as I had a nightmare the US was locked in a 1-1 game in the 81st minute and Wondo started warming up… I woke up and didn’t get to see how it ended, thankfully.

Panama [+240]
USA [+105]
Draw [+220]

Even without half our first choice roster, the US is a better team. There are not free lunches on the road in WC qualifying though, not even in CONCACAF. Plenty of smart money will be on the draw tonight. But fuck that noise. USMNT to win 2-1, sucking any remaining will to live out of Manuel Noriega.

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There you have it. EPL is back next weekend with an important Merseyside Dærby, assuming the teams have enough healthy and non-jet-lagged bodies to give it a go: