Previewing the SEC Title Game Between Kentucky and Arkansas
SEC Tournament Championship – Nashville
No. 3 Arkansas vs No. 1 Kentucky – 1:00 pm
Line: Kentucky -8
The SEC Tournament has been underwhelming – no surprise as it normally is. That said the SEC title game the last few years have been wildly entertaining. We had an overtime game last year and this year there’s the chance that either Arkansas keeps it close or Malik Monk goes for 40. That’s going to be the game within the game here as monk is from Arkansas and chose Kentucky over the Razorbacks. That’s always something to watch with big name guys like this, especially with the personality of Monk. He struggled in the first game, granted it was a blowout win for Kentucky, going for just 12 points and 0-for-5 from the 3-point line.
Despite it being the third game in three days for both teams, I expect this to still be an up and down game. Kentucky will absolutely run as they are simply better in transition than in the halfcourt. The other side of it being Calipari wants Monk and Fox to be playing their best heading into the NCAA Tournament and that’s getting them out in transition.
Arkansas will play fast simply because of its defense. They want to press, trap and turn it into easy points. On top of that they average just under 16 seconds per possession on the offensive side while both rank in the top-31 in terms of quickest possessions. Here’s a look at the tempo between the two:
The two major keys for Arkansas. They need to keep Kentucky off the offensive glass and limit fouling. Those are the two biggest advantages in the game on either side. Arkansas ranks 325th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. On the flip side Kentucky 43rd in the country in getting offensive rebounds on 33.8% of chances. It’s usually Bam getting those offensive rebounds, leading to a quick put back dunk, but Arkansas needs to keep a guy like Briscoe off the glass.
In terms of the foul situation, Kentucky draws a ton of fouls. That’s mostly due to the way De’Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe drive to the rim, Fox especially. They are 31st in the country at FTA/FGA while Arkansas fouls quite a bit. The Razorbacks foul more than 254 other teams in the country. Part of that is due to their trapping defense and getting reach fouls. They have to limit that in order to keep Kentucky off the free throw line.
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Pick: After a close game against Alabama, it feels like Malik Monk will get going. I think you see Kentucky come out determined to not fall behind early and although Arkansas will keep it close for most of the game, Kentucky will go on one of their typical runs to push it over the line. The other thing is teams that press Kentucky can be exposed if Fox breaks the press. I’ll take Kentucky -8 in this one with that late run sealing the win.