Previewing the Mid-Major Title Games Tonight
Today is the day where most of the automatic qualifiers fill out the bracket. The NCAA Tournament adds 14 teams on Saturday. We already know Vermont and NC Central will be in the NCAA Tournament and tonight we have the Big East, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 (all in separate, individual blogs), WAC, MAC, Big Sky, MWC, Conference-USA, SWAC, Southland and Big West playing their championship games. I’d be beyond surprised to see any of these conferences get a second NCAA Tournament in, especially with the MWC down this year.
Mountain West Conference Championship – Las Vegas
No. 2 Colorado State vs No. 1 Nevada – 6pm
Line: Nevada -5
– These two teams played a week ago with the regular season title on the line. Nevada won and Eric Musselman went shirtless on the court. It was a beautiful celebration from a blog standpoint. Tonight, they’ll play at the Thomas & Mack Center where the 3-point line will be a major storyline. Nevada wants to get up a bunch of threes as they are 86th in the country in 3PA/FGA. Colorado State wants you to beat them shooting threes. They rank 287th in giving up the most 3PA/FGA in the country. They do defend those shots well though. That will be the difference in this game. Nevada shoots 38.9% (26th in the country) as a team while Colorado State allows 31% (20th in the country). Something has to give there. In that first game Nevada shot 38.7% and won. I think that magic number is going to be 35%. If it’s under 35%, Colorado State wins.
– The individual matchup I want to see is Cam Oliver vs Emmanuel Omogbo. They both are 6’8″ and lead their respective teams as ‘major contributors’ per KenPom. Oliver dominated that first game putting up 29 points and 17 rebounds while Omogbo had 10 and 4. Oliver needs to look attack again. For Colorado State, they need more from Omogbo to go with Gian Clavell, a 6’4″ guard, who had 33 in that first game. He’s shooting 38% from the 3-point line and will get up about eight threes each game.
– This will be a very clean game as both teams rank in the top-20 in not turning the ball over. What does that mean? Who can hit shots. Without some free points off of turnovers, you’re going to have to hit buckets.
SWAC Championship – Houston
No. 2 Alcorn State vs No. 1 Texas Southern
Line: Texas Southern -6
Advertisement
– I don’t want to spend too much time on this game because Texas Southern has already clinched the SWAC. Alcorn State is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to academic violations stemming from 2011-2015. So, congrats to Texas Southern as this game is meaningless unless you’re putting some money on the SWAC title game.
MAC Championship – Cleveland
No. 6 Kent State vs No.1 Akron – 7:30mpm
Akron -4
– Another conference championship game where the two teams played a week ago. These two teams played twice this year, each getting a win on the road, with Kent State snapping Akron’s home winning streak. The key to beat Akron is simple. You have to slow down Isaiah Johnson, which is way easier said than done. The 6’10” senior won MAC PoY and is putting up 16.5/7.4/2.9 each night. The assists obviously stick out as he’s a strong passer out of the post, but he’s completely changed his game. Watching him from last year to this year, he’s more patient on offense. He’s avoiding cheap offensive fouls and lazy turnovers.
– Kent State needs to crash the offensive glass. They are fourth in the country by grabbing offensive rebounds on 38.5% of chances. They are a bad shooting team, 47.9 effective field goal percentage, so they need these offensive rebounds and easy putbacks to keep them in the game. There’s a chance they can pick up a couple of cheap fouls on Johnson with this too, getting him either reaching or a possible over the back.
– The one thing to keep an eye on with Akron is they get up the 6th most 3’s per field goal attempt in the country despite having Johnson.
Big Sky Championship – Reno
No. 3 Weber State vs No. 1 North Dakota – 8:30 pm
Line: North Dakota -2
– North Dakota won both games earlier this year and they want to beat you by running. It’s a little surprising how fast they play without getting up a bunch of threes and really not being that efficient offensively. What they want to do though is just beat you by getting more possessions and letting Quinton Hooker work. Hooker went for 22 against Weber State in both games. He looks to attack more than spot up, but will get up about five threes a game.
– Weber State plays at a much slower pace, but is deliberate with its offense. They rank in the top-40 in 3-point percentage, 2-point percentage and effective field goal percentage. On top of that, they rank in the top-15 in both 3-point and effective field goal percentage. They have nine guys who play at least 10 minutes per game, but the offense runs through Jeremy Senglin. He averages over 20 a game while only one other person averages over 10 ppg.
C-USA Championship – New Orleans
No. 6 Marshall vs No. 1 Middle Tennessee State - 8:30pm
Line: Middle Tennessee State -10
– This is one of the games that a lot of bubble teams will be watching. If Marshall wins this game, there is still a chance MTSU could steal an at-large bid.
– I’ve talked about Marshall being one of the more fun teams in the country and that’s because it’s a D’Antoni coaching them. They jack up threes and play at a quick pace. It at least makes the game entertaining.
– Middle Tennessee thrives on defense and limiting teams to one shot. They rank 13th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage and 50th in AdjD per KenPom. They sit down and make you work for a shot, with the average defensive possession being over 18 seconds. They don’t do anything necessarily great, they are just good at everything. It’s what makes them so consistent.
Picks: Nevada, Alcorn State, North Dakota, Middle Tennessee State, Akron, New Orleans (-1.5), Cal State Bakersfield +2.5 and Cal Irvine -5