Previewing the America East Title Game Between Vermont and Albany

I’ve always loved the America East championship game. It’s a perfect start to the Saturday of Championship Week. There’s something awesome about the 11am start and it always seems to be a great game. Last year Stony Brook used a massive run late in the game to come from behind against Vermont. Before that we had Albany’s Peter Hooley hit a game-winner over Stony Brook just weeks after his mother died. It’s always a competitive mid major, so get ready for some early hoops.

Personally, I love when this game is Vermont and Albany. I have ties coaching staffs and while they are awesome, these two teams are the best programs in the America East. But, more importantly, John Becker – the head coach of Vermont – is one of the easiest dudes to cheer for. He got his career started at Gallaudet College before making his way up from Vermont assistant coach to head coach. It wasn’t even an assistant coach if we’re being honest – as he started at Vermont as a part-time ‘director of basketball operations’ at Vermont. If that’s not enough – read the story about him and his family barely surviving a fire at their house a couple years ago as they slept due to smoke alarms not going off. Read about his dedication to Josh Speidel.

But, to focus on the game, and while I talked about Becker, let it be known Will Brown is one of the best midmajor coaches in the country, Vermont is the absolute favorite for a reason. They finished undefeated in conference play with a 12 and 11 point win over Albany. Both teams play a slower pace, ranking sub-300 for average offensive possessions length. You can see her average offensive possessions per game with efficiency:

Albany actually plays a slower pace (19 seconds per possession) but they average more offensive possessions per game due to their ability of rebounding the basketball. That’s where Albany needs to take advantage today. They rank 46th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 4th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Vermont does also clean up the defensive glass pretty well (70th in the country), so that’s going to be the key to this game. If Vermont limits the offensive rebounds, they win easily. If Albany can get some extra possessions, in what’s expected to be a close game, they’ll have the edge.

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The other thing to watch is if Albany does get lazy on the defensive side of the ball. They do give up a ton of easy shots as teams shoot 51.5% from inside the arc against them. Don’t be surprised to see Vermont go to the post and try to play through there to start.

Pick: The line is currently at Vermont -9, which feels like the perfect one. I’m going to take Vermont, thinking they get a late run to win by 10. This game being played in Burlington is such an advantage and Vermont is quite simply the better team. I think you see them keep Albany off the offensive glass.