Preview, Picks and Storylines for Big East, Big 12 and ACC Semifinals; Bonus: ATS Picks for Every Game Tonight
Well, that’s one way to lead into the major conference semifinals. Michigan beats the No. 1 seed for the second straight year in dramatic fashion as Jack Gibbs showed the world he has some gigantic stones. Tonight though we get four of the major conferences playing their semifinals (I’ll have something on Arizona/UCLA in a separate blog since it’s such a late tip). We’ll get right into it again and at the end of the blog make some picks for the other games as well. Absolutely love this week.
Big East Semifinals – Madison Square Garden
Semifinals
No. 5 Seton Hall vs No. 1 Villanova – 6:30pm
No. 7 Xavier vs No. 6 Creighton – 9:00 pm
– If you asked people before the season started to guess the semifinals of the Big East, you’d end have about 90% of people saying this four. The one difference being the seeds are No. 1, 5, 6 and 7. Just shows how equal the middle of this conference is. Villanova is obviously the class of the conference and DePaul is, well, they are a school. Seeds No. 2-7 are all fairly equal.
– The biggest question of the night is the health of Mikal Bridges. As we found out yesterday he’s battling the flu and barely played in that blowout against St. John’s. At the time, I haven’t seen anything about him for tonight. So let’s assume he’ll be out there. The real story though was Daniel Ochefu with one of the funniest tweets in some time
– Angel Delgado has been good against Villanova this season (though, he has against everyone) putting up 19/12 and 22/6 in the two losses this season. He needs someone like Desi Rodriguez or Khadeen Carrington to step up and help him out. Villanova will give you looks from the 3-point line, they are in fact one of the worst in the country at allowing 3PA/FGA. Problem is Seton Hall isn’t a good 3-point shooting team, shooting it at just 33.7% as a team.
– Xavier/Creighton split the regular season and were expected to be pretty similar this season. They were led by an ultra-quick point guard in Sumner and Watson, who both tore their ACL, and surrounded with two guys on the wing that can score in Macura/Bluiett for Xavier and Thomas/Foster for Creighton. The one difference though has been the rise of Justin Patton for Creighton and the depth for the Blue Jays compared to the bench for Xavier.
– Xavier needs RaShid Gaston to be effective tonight. He’ll see a variety of players in Patton, Hegner and Hanson. He can’t get in foul trouble and needs to give Xavier some sort of scoring option on the interior to help open up the outside for Bluiett and Macura.
Picks: Villanova will win this game, but I think Seton Hall stays inside that +11. The one way it will turn into a blowout is if Seton Hall is cold from the outside. Villanova can open it up quickly with their shooting, but with the question of Mikal Bridges, I’ll take Seton Hall staying inside the number. In the late game I think Creighton is able to use its quick tempo combined with Xavier having to play its third game in three days with a shorter bench to cover the -4.
Big 12 Semifinals – Kansas City
No. 8 TCU vs No. 4 Iowa State – 7:00 pm
No. 6 Kansas State vs No. 2 West Virginia – 9:30 pm
– This is the one tournament that has gotten pretty loose in terms of upsets. TCU and Kansas State are the two teams that are possible bid stealers depending what side of the bubble you had Kansas State on. TCU likely still needs on more win to feel on the right side, but to not have Kansas or Baylor in the semifinals is pretty surprising.
– I said from the get go the winner of the Iowa State/Oklahoma State was going to win this thing and I still believe that. I was more than impressed with how Iowa State took control of Oklahoma State. They responded every time Oklahoma State made a run and got contributions from everyone, but Monte Morris nearly getting a triple-double is obviously the story. The fact he wasn’t on the Cousy Award finalists is a joke (same with Evans). He’s easily one of the five best point guards in college basketball this season. Steve Prohm agrees:
– Iowa State, while not known for its defense, can turn you over. They rank 71st in the country in forcing turnovers. This is where Iowa State can make up if TCU tries to slow the game down. The Horned Frogs turn the ball over a ton – 19.2% of possessions to be exact. Part of that is having a freshman point guard, but also because they can panic late in the clock. They run offensive possessions on average for over 17 seconds, which can lead to some forces. Iowa State needs to force a couple turnovers early.
– The late game has a similar game point. Kansas State turns the ball over a ton, West Virginia leads the nation in forcing turnovers. It’s pretty simple. You need to be able to attack West Virginia off their pressure. Don’t get sucked towards the baselines and make sure you know when you’re guy goes to trap. You beat them up the middle in the backcourt then funnel the wings once you break it. Stay spread so one guy can’t guard two. If Kansas State gets away from that, the pressure will lead to way too many free points.
– The other major advantage for West Virginia? The offensive glass. Because of how West Virginia presses, they crash the glass and don’t worry about getting back on defense. They are 7th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Kansas State on the other hand? They are sub-300 in defensive rebounding. Between that and the turnovers, it’s going to lead to extra possessions and free points.
Picks: I’m taking the two favorites here. Iowa State -4.5 and West Virginia -6.5 for all the reasons I listed above.
ACC Semifinals – Brooklyn
No. 5 Duke vs No. 1 UNC – 7:00 pm
No. 3 Notre Dame vs No. 2 Florida State – 9:30 pm
– It’s somewhat hard to believe, but UNC and Duke will finally play each other in the postseason. It’s only fitting with how the two games went earlier this year with each winning at home. It’s going to come down to how the three wing players play for Duke. They need Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard and Jayson Tatum to all hit a couple outside shots and look to attack. Duke has been at their best in these games when they bring up Amile Jefferson in the high pick-and-roll, making Kennedy Meeks hedge on a guard. Look for a lot of that tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see most of those high screens involving Kennard (an underrated passer) or Frank Jackson, who has really come on as of late.
– For UNC, it’s pretty similar. Whenever Harry Giles is in the game, bringing him in the pick-and-roll and for Justin Jackson to create. Jackson needs to be aggressive in driving into the paint and challenging Duke to block his floater. They will obviously play through the paint and use some hi-lo action, but really it’s getting Jackson going. He can be a mistmatch with his length and ability to finish at 6’8″ with the floater.
– The late game couldn’t be two more different teams in terms of looks. Florida State is the biggest team in America. Notre Dame has a 6’5″ center, who is awesome. Florida State trots out a lottery pick in Jonathan Isaac and another NBA talent in Dwayne Bacon. Notre Dame has some dudes who are going to be awesome accountants one day. I mean that in the biggest compliment ever. What Mike Brey has done this year is one of his best coaching jobs and he’s one hell of a coach.
– Notre Dame needs to keep Florida State off the glass. The Noles 39th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. With that massive lineup, the one thing Notre Dame can do is look to run off a defensive rebound then settle into secondary transition if nothing is there at first. Matt Farrell is quick with the first step and if he has a move takes it, but it’s his ability to not force and look for the pass off the dribble in these situations that go a long way.
– Free throw shooting will be important in this game. We see it all the time in March. Teams leave the door open (especially for covers) because of poor shooting the last 90 seconds. Notre Dame is the best free throw shooting team in the country. Florida State is 212th and more than 10 percentage points worse than Notre Dame.
Picks: These Duke/UNC games are always incredibly close. It doesn’t matter the talent level. I’ll take Duke +4.5 for that reason and Mike Brey seems to love the ACC Tournament. Notre Dame +2.5, though I don’t love it.
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Everything else:
It’s Friday so I’ll pick ATS for every other game for shits and giggles:
Southland Conference:
Sam Houston State +3 over New Orleans -6pm
Stephen F. Austin PK over Texas A&M CC -8:30pm
B1G
Wisconsin -4 over Indiana 6:30 pm
Maryland -1 over Northwestern 9:00 pm
Sun Belt Conference:
UL Lafayette +3 over Georgia State -6pm
Troy -1 over Georgia Southern – 8:30 pm
American Athletic Conference:
Tulsa +15 over Cincinnati – 7pm
UConn +4.5 over Houston – 9:30pm
SEC:
Vanderbilt +7 over Florida – 7:00 pm
Arkansas -4.5 over Ole Miss – 9:30 pm
MAC:
Kent State +3.5 over Ohio – 8:00 pm
A-10:
Richmond -2.5 over George Washington – 8:00 pm
MEAC:
Howard +4.5 over Norfolk State – 8:00pm
Big Sky:
North Dakota -3.5 over Idaho – 8:30 pm
Weber State -1 over Eastern Washington – 11:00 pm
WAC:
Cal State-Bakersfield -4.5 over Utah Valley – 9:00 pm
UMKC +8.5 over new Mexico State – 11:30 pm
Big West:
Long Beach State +5.5 over UC-Irvine – 9:30 pm
UC Davis -2 over Cal State-Fullerton: Midnight
SWAC:
Alcorn State -3 over Southern – 9:30pm
Mountain West:
Nevada -5 over Fresno State – 10:00 pm
Colorado State +2.5 over San Diego State – Midnight