Big 12 Play Starts Today, Storylines and Predictions for the Conference
The Big 12 was supposed to be down this year. That’s typically what happens when you lose the likes of Georges Niang and Buddy Hield. However, the Big 12 is currently rated as the best conference on KenPom and is perceived nationally as a top-3 conference. All that said, it still belong to Kansas and will take a miracle for them to not win another Big-12 title.
This league is deep though. Right now the worst team in the conference in Texas per KenPom and many thought they’d be a top-25 team all season. After that, TCU has vastly improved and has wins over Washington (twice), Illinois State and Arkansas State. Oklahoma has struggled but still has a win over Clemson. While the ACC is definitely a better conference, the best thing about the Big 12 is the fact they play each team twice, so we’ll see how the middle of the conference plays out.
NCAA Tournament Teams (as of 12/30)
Locks: Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
Bubble: Texas Tech, Kansas State, TCU
Storylines to Watch:
- Can Kansas Win the Big 12 for the 13th Year?
Look, it’s an absurd stat. There’s no way about it. What Bill Self has done at Kansas is nothing short of remarkable. I know there are jokes about him losing in the NCAA Tournament, but the Tournament can be fluky. One game shouldn’t necessarily determine if you had a good season or not and for the most part a lot is based on matchups. What’s not fluky is this. What’s even more ridiculous is Bill Self hasn’t finished below second in a conference since 1998.
- Just How Good is Baylor?
Baylor has been the darling of the college basketball world. They are undefeated with wins over Oregon, Louisville, Xavier, VCU and Michigan State. Now to play devil’s advocate, they haven’t gone on the road yet as all these wins have been at home or at the Battle 4 Atlantis. Everyone does like to attack Scott Drew, but he has had the best turnaround of a program ever in college basketball. When you look at where Baylor was when he arrived with the Dave Bliss/Carlton Dotson scandal, the program was quite literally the definition of a disaster. Now for this year? This is a Sweet 16-calibar team. The 1-1-3 defense has been wildly effective and Johnathan Motley looks like he cares this year.
- Will Jawun Evans Become a Household Name?
If you’re a college basketball fan, you know the name Jawun Evans. But for everyone who is still in football season, this is a guy who is easily one of the 10 best point guards in the country right now. He’s the best player I’ve seen this season in the pick-and-roll thanks to an improvement in shooting the ball. In the 89 possessions he’s run a pick-and-roll, he’s scoring 1.045 points per possession (91st percentile in the country) with an adjusted Field Goal percentage of 56%. Those numbers are insane.
- Can West Virginia’s Press Stay Dominant?
They’ve adapted the name Press Virginia and rightfully so over the last couple of years. Bob Huggins has completely transformed the program and made it this new identity. It’s been a great thing too, but nothing has compared to how dominant they’ve been with the press this year. They are turning teams over 35% of the time, which is obviously tops in the country. Now granted 9 nonconference games came against sub-150 teams, that number is still outrageous. This is what will make West Virginia challenge Kansas for the title though. They struggle in the halfcourt and if you can slow them down and/or not turn the ball over, you have a chance to beat them. But in a league with great point guards (Mason, Morris, Evans, Lecomte, etc) can they continue to force turnovers?
- Can Texas Save Its Season?
Texas has been the second biggest disappointment this season and possibly even more than Syracuse. The Longhorns are coming off a season in which they were a No. 6 seed and had two All-Americans coming into the program. Everyone felt like this was the team to run Havoc. They aren’t doing that though. They are hardly pressing and the lack of a point guard is showing. They have lost at home to UT-Arlington and Kent State. Sitting at just 6-6 heading into conference play, Texas needs a miracle to get to the NCAA Tournament. Personally, I don’t see it happening because of the lack of point guard and shooting, but can they at least start playing to their strengths?
All-Big 12 Team: Frank Mason (Kansas), Josh Jackson (Kansas), Johnthan Motley (Baylor), Jawun Evans (Oklahoma State), Monte Morris (Iowa State)
Big 12 Player of the Year: Frank Mason (Kansas)
Big 12 Coach of the Year: Scott Drew (Baylor)
Big 12 Regular Season Champions: Kansas