Terps' Hoops Opens Its Season Tonight Against American - A 2016-2017 Season Preview
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The Terps begin the 2016-17 season with tempered expectations. Gone are the great talents that brought national championship hopes to College Park last season. Diamond Stone, Jake Layman, Rasheed Sulaimon, and Robert Carter Jr. have all moved on to greener pastures (well most of em. Looking at you RCJ). That leaves us with one Melo Trimble, who really has his work cut out for him with a young roster and thin frontcourt.
Was last season a disappointment? Given expectations, definitely. The goal was to win it all. But it should be acknowledged that making a Sweet 16 for the first time since winning it all in 2002 is still progress for this program. The goal for Maryland this season is to try to keep that momentum from slowing too much. Mark Turgeon has a pair of solid recruits set up to come in next year and has his eyes set on an extremely talented local crop of recruits in the Class of 2018. The Terps desperately need to avoid a stinker of a season that would turn those recruits away. I’d say making the NCAA Tournament and winning a game there would do the trick. Anything beyond that would be gravy. It’s tough to say how realistic any of that is though because this team has so many question marks. Let’s take a look at the 4 biggest questions:
1. Which Melo Trimble will show up for the Terps?
We all know what Melo is capable of. When he’s at 100% and playing with confidence, he’s one of the best players in the country. But too often last season, he was hampered by hamstring injuries and seemed to have lost his shooting touch. He also didn’t get anywhere near the amount of foul calls from Big Ten referees that he got in his freshman year. His ability to get to the line is a major part of his game. Plus his role within the offense may have not been best suited for him. With the roster last year, he was forced to play the point pretty much every time he was on the floor. His skillset is probably better served for him to play off the ball.
This year he’s got a talented true point guard coming in with freshman Anthony Cowan, and Jaylen Brantley has a year of D-1 basketball under his belt now. These two should be able to take a little bit of the pressure of him in terms of ball-handling. This team will go as Melo goes and if he can regain his form, the Terps will have a successful year. If not, it could be a disaster.
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2. Who will step up as a secondary scorer behind Melo?
With all the departures after last year, the Terps leading returning scorer behind Melo is Jared Nickens at 5.4 PPG, and then Damonte Dodd at 2.9. That’s terrifying. We know that Nickens can stroke it from deep, but his game beyond that is extremely limited. The offense will find ways to get him open shots, but he’s not going to create much. Dodd’s scoring will increase just by virtue of increased minutes, but there’s gotta be scoring elsewhere.
My hope is that Dion Wiley can live up to his top 50 recruit status from a couple years back. Some recruiting services actually had him evaluated higher than Melo, so we know there’s talent there. He’s coming off a torn meniscus that kept him on the shelf for the entire year. Him and Nickens duked it out for minutes their freshman year, but Nickens ultimately won out because his shooting stroke was a bit better and that’s the role the Terps needed filled that year. This year they need a guy who can create his own shot, slash, and defend. Wiley can be that guy. Otherwise it’s gonna be up to the freshman….
3. What can the Terps get out of their freshmen?
The Terps have a talented threesome of freshmen named Anthony Cowan, Kevin Huerter, and Justin Jackson. They’re the future of Terps hoops. Like I mentioned before, Cowan is a guy who likes to push the pace and distribute the rock. He’s a TRUE point guard that we haven’t had since…. I dunno? Greivis was so versatile that I hesitate to call him a true PG… Maybe Steve Blake? He’s supposed to get a fair share of minutes this year and he’s going to have some growing pains, but maybe he can surprise some folks.
Kevin Huerter is going to draw a lot of comparisons to Jake Layman. He’s not quite as tall as Jake, but he can shoot it just as well if not better. He’s highly regarded for his basketball acumen and can distribute as well. The most important thing here is that he’s extremely polished and should be able to contribute immediately. We’ll see to what extent.
Justin Jackson was a late addition to the class, and he’s a bit more of a raw talent. He’s a forward who has ridiculously long arms that will prove to be a major advantage on the defensive end, which is something they’ll certainly need right away…
2 years ago, the Terps came into the season with mild expectations and a class of talented freshmen. Melo Trimble emerged and the Terps turned out to be a borderline top 10 team and finished in 2nd in the Big Ten. If one of these guys can make that kind of contribution, who knows what this team is capable of?
4. Will the Terps get dominated in the paint?
This is a MAJOR concern of mine. Basketball as a whole is moving towards smaller lineups, but the Terps’ lack of a frontcourt is a major liability. We know what Damonte Dodd can do defensively, especially when it comes to blocking shots. But we also know that he’s extremely prone to getting into foul trouble. When he’s off the floor, we’re likely to see Michal Cekovsky. Cekovsky has had a couple of good games (namely against Frank Kaminsky a couple years back), but otherwise has been mostly ineffective. Both of these guys bring little to nothing on the offensive end, and Ceko just might be the worst free throw shooter on the planet (seriously he’s a 43% career shooter). It’s a disaster.
That’s where a guy like Duquesne transfer LG Gill will really need to pull his weight. He averaged 10 and 6.5 in the A-10, so it’s not like he’s going to light the world on fire, but he should be able to provide some much needed minutes. There are going to be games in Big Ten play where they just get outmuscled in the paint. They’ll lose their fair share of games because of their play inside the paint. But the Terps gotta mitigate that weakness and push the pace.
All in all, the Terps are probably right where they should be in the polls. They’re #25 in the AP Poll and #21 in the Coaches Poll, and they’ll probably bounce in and out of the top 25 all year. They’ve got a moderate nonconference schedule and the Big Ten should again be one of the best conferences in the nation. It’s a deep conference where 10 wins will likely be a ticket to the dance. That’s what I’m hoping for this season. Just make the dance, avoid taking two steps back, and keep them croots coming to College Park. Better things are coming down the road.