Barstool’s Champions League Preview – The “Knockouts Are Here & Yep We’re Doing Boners” Edition

Sam's Army2/16/2016 7:00 PM

Sam’s Champions League Knockouts Day 1 Preview & Pick’Em

Hi haters,

Hold on, hold on, hold on. Imma let you finish but…

If that didn’t send a small rush of blood to your dangly bits then perhaps this isn’t the blog for you. As for the rest of you, as many of you know we have now reached the first knockout stage where 16 of the best (minus Leicester and Spurs) clubs in European/world soccer face off in a head-to-head and home-and-home format, meaning the away-goals tiebreaker will be in full effect.

One thing to keep in mind while watching these Champions League (and Europa League for that matter) games is that the EPL is getting dangerously close to losing its fourth slot in the UCL, which would be an absolute disaster for a million and a half reasons. I’ve mentioned the UEFA coefficient before – here’s a little more detail – so won’t belabor you with the all nitty gritty again, but it comes down to this: the EPL and Italy’s Serie A are competing against one another for the right to send four clubs to the Champions League. That means fans of City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton, Chelsea and any other team with a chance of finishing fourth and expecting a trip to the UCL is in the uncomfortable position of having to root for their English rivals in European competitions. This may be uncomfortable for some of you, but it is what it is.

The one and ONLY situation where this is even “half” acceptable

It also makes the looming Europa League matchup pitting Tottenham against Fiorentina critically important.

**************************

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

As a reminder, this is the schedule for when and where the eight different matchups that will be played over the coming month:

Also, here’s a real quick and real dirty look at the odds to win the whole damn thing for each of the remaining 16 clubs:

Among the various thoughts swirling around in your mind at the moment, here are a few responses…

“Should I take a flier on a relative minnow?”

If history has taught us anything it is that longshots never ever win this puppy. But then again, history also taught us that Leicester should be in a relegation battle right now, so wtf does history know? The answer is apparently not much, but I think it is still fair to say that clubs like Gent, Dynamo and PSV are essentially dead-men-walking (even if they manage to somehow scrape through the first KO round).

Unfortunately two of my favorite longshots – Benfica and Zenit – ended up facing one another in this round, which on the one hand ensures that one will move on to the quarterfinals while also necessitating that one will be sent home.

“Holy shit the EPL is going to die!”

It very well might with Arsenal (per usual) having to play Barcelona – which only happens to be playing about as well as any club in the history of forever at the moment – and Chelsea matching up against a lean, mean, well-rested, Zlatan-led machine in PSG. However, City SHOULD [gulp] have a straight forward path to the next round and Italy has an arguably even tougher road forward against Real Madrid (Roma) and Bayern Munich (Juventus).

“When will Rhiannon Jones grace my television screen?”

TOMORROW!

“Can anybody beat Barcelona?”

Um, did you see them in the second half against Celta de Vigo on Sunday? Jesus H. W. Christ. Their offense is unstoppable, aside from perhaps the Tax Man. So will somebody beat them? Probably not, but if they have a possible weakness it is in the back, though the issue is getting and keeping the ball for long enough to actually try and exploit that. (Don’t look now but if Walcott and Welbeck are both fit and in form, Arsenal just might have the type of speed and counter attacking ability to cause Barça a few problems… as in only lose by single-digits across the two legs.)

“Which sleeper is likely D.O.A.?”

I wasn’t very high on Roma but they have turned it on a bit so I’ll say they are on life support. As far as fully dead, my vote would be Wolfy because as ideal as their first round KO matchup is in Gent, the Green Machine has not shown the upside potential needed to put together a serious run in this competition. For example, guess how many of their last six Bundesliga games Wolfsburg has won? How about… one. Yikes. Suffice to say that is not the form of a Champions League contender.

Sads

“So who are your dark horses?”

PSG is definitely one of them. Not only is the club in fine form, they have been able to rest plenty of players in preparation for the UCL resumption thanks to having wrapped up the Ligue 1 title in October or so. Chelsea could actually be a tough task for them, if only because history can be a real motherfucker sometimes and the Blues owe the Parisians some serious payback after last year.

As mentioned previously, I loved how Zenit was playing at the end of last year. The fly in the ointment is the fact that the Russian league plays on the same schedule as MLS, meaning the last competitive game the club played was against Gent in the UCL group stage IN EARLY DECEMBER. That means Zenit is both a dark horse and a massive wild card. Will they come in better rested than everybody else or have lost their rhythm? There really is no telling, but given the tasty odds and the talent they have I’d be willing to take a bit of a flier on them.

Finally, in the category of not-a-dark-horse-a-few-months-ago-but-now-very-much-a-dark-horse, I like City – if they can (a) get healthy and (b) stay healthy. That is obviously a pretty massive “if” considering how many games players like Kompany, Silva and Aguero have been missing. In their favor though, they have (what SHOULD [gulp] be) an easy matchup in the Round of 16, and it seems like the Sky Blues’ recent dip in form – much of it injury-related – has caused people to forget how formidable they can be if/when healthy.

Good to go!

***

PICKS OF THE DAY

UEFA has embraced the fact that spreading games out is a useful means for boosting television revenue, which is all the better for fans as we don’t have to try to follow a million games all going on at once and can instead focus on just two at a time.

PSG (-160)
Chelsea (+500)
Draw (+275)

There are four fears for PSG coming into this game:

1) The club has been feasting on French league competition for so long now that they may have lost their edge

2) Chelsea has found a bit of form on both ends of the field, conceding no more than one goal in every game over the past month and even putting a few away themselves (including the 5-1 whupping of Newcastle on Saturday)

3) PSG defender Serge Aurier lost his damn mind on Periscope a couple days ago and called coach Laurent Blanc a non-heterosexual who eats Zlatan’s balls. Shockingly, he is now suspended. Whether it caused problems internally is anybody’s guess.

4) Lastly, but perhaps most importantly, the tables were completely reversed when PSG came in as massive underdogs in last season’s UCL Round of 16 and pulled off one of the more improbable results of the season, managing a 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge after going down to 10-men – without The Zlatan! — and after going down in extra time no less, to advance on away goals. Unfortunately for the Frenchies, the soccer gods love nothing more than an unlikely retribution story. (Though for those keeping score at home it would actually be a retribution-for-retribution story since Chelsea knocked PSG out in the quarterfinal of the 2013-14 Champions League.)

“So can Chelsea pull out a ridiculously miraculous win?”

Abbbbbbbbbbbbbsolutely fucking not.

“Well how about a plain old miraculous draw?”

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe… just kidding, probably not. The main problems are that they (a) aren’t great at soccer and (b) will be missing their entire defensive spine outside of Thibault Courtois in goal. Zouma and Terry are injured and Matic is suspended, begging serious questions about who exactly is going to be thrown to the wolves and asked to help shut down The Zlatan… in Paris… in Champions League.

Trial by fire x 1,000,000? Possibly

In the end the French side has too much class going forward for Chelsea’s irregulars to successfully park the bus. PSG to win 3-1, which you could argue would actually be a relatively favorable result for the Blues considering how many important pieces they are missing at the back. I will say this, it could be a lot worse for Chelsea to head home only facing a two-goal deficit after this one.

***

Benfica (+105)
Zenit (+280)
Draw (+235)

In the midst of some other ridiculous unbeaten runs by Barcelona (29 in all competitions) and PSG (34 in Ligue 1), Benfica’s 13-game streak was understandably overlooked before coming to an end against Porto. Zenit, on the other hand, hasn’t played in two months so who the hell knows what kind of form they will be in. If this game was being played in December I likely would’ve taken them to pull off the upset. My guess though is the Russians will have a very conservative game plan, hoping that Hulk can pull off a moment of magic such that they can head back to the motherland with a draw or at least a manageable one-goal deficit. Given Zenit’s inevitable rustiness, I’m going with the latter. Benfica to win 2-1.