Kmarko's NFL DraftKings Picks - Week 15

Welcome back to the daily DraftKings picks where we try to get super rich playing daily fantasy football. As usual I’ll do a brief recap of my lineups from the week before then throw out some picks that I’m brainstorming for this weekend, and hopefully get some good feedback/tips/picks from you guys either in the comment section or on Twitter @kmarkobarstool.

I’ll be honest, I put like 50 lineups into the Millionaire Maker this past weekend. It was a special edition $3 entry instead of $20 so I was planning on putting in a few extra regardless, but then the imminent NY State shutdown news came out and I went on full tilt – blacked out and started wildly filling out lineups and hitting enter, enter, enter. And in the end I cashed in about 90% of them…but they were all so similar they all were in the same score range. Had an entire bar full of lineups on the app hanging in the green, but the final cash out was like 50 bucks total. Hey, it’ll get me a couple drinks this weekend at least.

Optimal lineup breakdown:

My optimal was my 3rd best scoring out of my whole collection, which is always a boost to the confidence. Had a couple with crazy contrarian plays score higher, but good to know my thought-out one with all my analysis and blog picks was one of my strongest.

QB: Russ was my featured blog play, and he had another great one. 13.2% ownership is a little high, but not too bad – certainly could have been worse. I’ll take 33 from my QB any week.

RBs: Shady was the featured play and, as expected, was in the mid 30%s for ownership. I thought he’d put up enough points to make it worth it, but 15 ain’t gonna get it done. Bad tournament play. That revenge game narrative didn’t come through this time. Meanwhile I rolled with Forte after mentioning I liked him as a contrarian play – got him low owned, but 12 points isn’t really enough to justify it. A late TD salvaged what would have been a dud.

WRs: B Marsh was the featured play and he put up a monster. That long touchdown they just flat out decided not to cover him on helped. Targeting WRs against the Titans is $$$ right now. Doug Baldwin was an absolute no-brainer pairing with Russ, and another 3 touchdowns made it even sweeter. I had Lockett in a bunch of lineups too but wussed out not putting him in my optimal. Antonio Brown underperformed for his salary, but Hartline made up for it – 22 points at 0.70% ownership is tournament magic.

TE: Went cheap with Will Tye, and he paid off with his first TD of the season. As someone who watches every Giants game, gotta like the way he’s trending – getting a lot of looks from Eli, and should do even better with all the attention OBJ gets as the season winds down.

Let’s take a peek at this week’s top plays….

QB: Carson Palmer $7K

I love Russell Wilson once again this week, but he’ll most likely be the chalkiest play on the board, especially with the A++ matchup with the Browns. That leaves me with two other great options as my top GPP play: Brady and Palmer. I’ll roll with Palmer due to the price, the Sunday Night hammer matchup, and the stats – Philly is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs over the past 3 weeks. They’re also playing way better and looking like a legitimate threat, which means it should be a close game with a lot of points going up on both sides. At least that’s what I’m hoping for. David Johnson is probably a great choice for this one, but I’ll opt for the air attack and pair Carson up with 1 or 2 of his 3 receivers and hope for those tourney points to rack up.

Other QB options: Like I said, Russ might be the #1 play of the week. Brady is once again a good tournament option at his high price, and there’s really no reason to think Cam can’t keep it rolling against the Giants. 3 of my favorite plays though: Drew Brees, Blake Bortles, Aaron Rodgers. Probably in that order. And if you want to go cheap at QB, I don’t feel confident about it, but it could be a big running game for Tyrod.

RB: Adrian Peterson $7.1K

I didn’t want to go so chalky here but honestly Peterson is the best RB play of the weekend and it isn’t even really close. We’ll get into some more GPP-based potential plays below, but if I’m featuring the guy I think you need to have in your lineup to have a shot this weekend it’s gotta be AP. Great matchup with the Bears and he’s been bottled up the past few weeks – AP has historically been a guy who is extra motivated to bust out of slumps (don’t have any stats to back this up but going off the $$ I’ve made over the past few years using this strategy I stand by it). The Vikings need to get back on track with a win and they (hopefully) know where their bread is buttered – not little Teddy Bridgewater’s midget hands chucking it around, but handing it to the workhorse.

Ok, more tournament style plays – I honestly think Devonta Freeman will be lower owned than usual because of the dumpster fire that is the Falcons offense, and his high price. Could be worth it to pay up. I think Shady is a great play again this week, and David Johnson is definitely a solid option. Risky/reward guys – Eddie Lacy and Jeremy Hill…I’ll be giving a longgg look at. The obvious value play of the weekend is Tim Hightower – I don’t think I can fade him at 3.9K.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins $8.5K

I obviously don’t like featuring a 8.5K guy who has been one of the best receivers in the NFL all year long, but I actually think he makes an awesome tournament play this week. He’s had some duds lately that have REALLY burned people, his ownership was way down last week, and he just lost his quarterback. But if you remember, he actually put up a big stat line last time Yates started, and there’s also my personal favorite strategy – taking #1 receivers with young and/or inexperienced QBs expecting them to just feed them the entire game. Same thing applies to AJ Green this week if you want to go that way. But I’ll go Hopkins – his targets are down, his production is down, his team sucks…what a perfect time to pounce!

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Other WR options: Alshon Jeffrey was my top play until he popped up on the injury report again. Mr.Glass… If you’re going Bortles I like pairing him up with both A-Rob and A-Hurns, and Calvin Johnson could be a big MNF Hammer play. Obviously Doug Baldwin is in play again, or Tyler Lockett if you want to go cheaper…finally, I like Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks as having a sneaky good shot at monster games.

TE:

There’s Gronk, and then there’s everybody else. If you think he gets enough snaps to justify his price, play him. Greg Olsen seems a little banged up but if he’s good to go, he’s good to go…personally Jordan Reed is my #2 guy though, the production has been through the roof. There’s finally a week I don’t like Delanie Walker – I think the Pats gameplan will be to eliminate him since he’s the only real receiving threat. Ben Watson and Heath Miller could be a couple cheaper, sneakier plays…and once again, Will Tye is on my radar.

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Good luck on Sunday. Got any sweet sleeper picks I should consider? Tweet them at me. Also if you enjoy the blogs and want to deposit on DK for the weekend use my referral code and we’ll both get hooked up.