Barstool's Breeders Cup Gambling Tips
My horse guy @BlackSixMark is back with Breeders Cup selections for the next two days. Biggest weekend in horse racing, let’s get some cash.
The best two days in horse racing are this weekend and with large fields and the best horses in the world we have a chance to make some money. Racing commences this Friday at Keeneland race course and offers some exciting wagering opportunities. I’ll break down the late pick four for both Friday and Saturday below. I prefer to bet horizontally across several races but will include some other bets and a couple superfectas to hit something big. I normally like local horses and horses that seem to be taking to the Kneeland surface and have run there before. Front end speed/pressors on the dirt races and closers on the turf races. If the turf course is yielding or good look out for the European runners. Last year Karakonite, a Japanese horse trained by Jonathan Pease who has won the Breeders Cup Mile a couple times in the last few years, beat Anioden and crushed my pick four that payed $18k (3 out of 4 story of my life), with Bayern beating California Chrome, Shared Belief and Toast of New York in the the Breeders Cup Classic.
Beholder winning the TVG Classic 2015
Friday Grade 1 Pick Four (Races 6-9) & Late Pick Four (Races 7-10)
Race #6 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – Really hard race to get a read on, first stakes race on the turf and we will see how the European imports fair and how the track is playing. ALL button isn’t a bad idea.
#7 Ray’s the Bar – Won his maiden at Ascot and was a solid third in the Pilgrim G3 and had some traffic issues in that race.
#13 Cymric – Has ran some solid 7 furlong races in Europe and just missed a G1 win in France. Gosden has won this race more than a couple times.
#6 Birchwood – Solid European class and Fahey only ships the ones that can win.
#8 Airoforce & #10 Conquest Daddyo – Both Mark Casse entrants look in good shape to possibly get to the winners circle. Although Casse has never won a Breeders’ Cup race.
Bets -
$1 Exacta Box – 6, 7, 8, 10, 13
$2 Double – ALL / 3
$1 Pick Three – ALL / 3 / ALL
Race #7 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – This race is Liam’s Map to lose, he wired the G1 Woodard at 1 ? and was a neck behind Honor Code in the Whitney (both at Saratoga). He cuts back in distance and has been training well at Keeneland since early October. This is only his 4th race this year and is well prepped by Todd Pletcher to win the race.
Win -
#3 – Liam’s Map
2nd Tier – Exacta, Tri’s, Supers
#2 – Bradester – 3 Solid works at Keeneland, Cutting back in distance
#5 – Lea – Mott trainee with solid class and back on dirt surface
#1 – Red Vine – Can have a good shot if there is a speed battle up front
After those three – Tapiture, Valid (tough outside post for him), Wicked Strong (Good class, but don’t like his last few races) and Street Strategy. If you like the way War Envoy looks put him underneath. He shipped in after some good turf races in Europe and rides for a solid trainer/jockey combo. He hasn’t raced since June and has never ran on dirt.
Bets -
$5 Exacta box – 1, 2, 5
$10 Exacta – 3 with 1, 2, 5
$1 Tri – 3 with 1, 2, 5 with 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
$0.20 Superfecta – 3 with 1, 2, 5 with 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 with 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
$0.20 Superfecta – 1, 2, 5 with 3 with 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 with 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Race #8 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Cup Fillies Turf – A bunch of European imports in here and it will be tough to tell which horse improves of their last race or takes to the Keeneland turf to win this. I wouldn’t be afraid to use the ALL button in this race.
Win -
#9 Nemoralia – Had a nice G1 prep race at Belmont on a sloppy track and looks to be just behind the speed to make his move in the stretch.
#7 Sapphire Kitten – Got nosed out at the G3 Jessamn at a 1 1/16 and can improve off that race. Great breeding.
#5 Ruby Notion – Wesley Ward is a great turf trainer and if Hernandz can keep out of a speed duel with Catch a Glimpse and stay the mile distance she might be able to steal the race. Watch out for any horse that has raced at Ascot.
2nd Tier – #4 Catch a Glimpse, #8 Harmonize, #10 Illuminate
and #11 Pricedtoperfection
Bets -
$1 Pick 3 – All / 1 9 / 1 13
$5 Pick 3 – 7 9 / 1 9 / 1 13
Race #9 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff – Lots of horses in here wanting the lead or on front. Looking to find a price and go against Wedding Toast and Sheer Drama. #11 Untapable is scratched.
Win -
#9 Stellar Wind – Sadler trained horse that should be able to stay behind all the speed and make out a good trip with Victor Espinoza aboard.
#1 I’m a Chatterbox – Horse is 5 for 10 in career with a couple G1 wins, inside post and the extra 1/16 of a mile should help.
#12 Got Lucky – Beat three of these horses in the G1 Spinster at Keeneland and looks to be spotted well here.
#4 Stopchargingmaria – Has been training well at Keeneland and is 5 for 7 at this distance.
2nd Tier – #2 Frivolous, #7 Wedding Toast, #8 Curalina, #10 Yahilwa, #14 Sheer Drama
Bets -
$2 Exacta – 1, 9 with 1, 4, 8, 9, 12, 14
$2 Exacta – 1, 4, 8, 9, 12, 14 with 1, 9
$0.10 Superfecta – 1, 4, 9, 12 with 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14 with 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14 with All (no 5, 6, 13)
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Race #10 – Marathon S.- Quite a few tosses from the race that lets us narrow down the last leg of the late pick four and three of the horses come out of the 1 ½ mile grade three Grand Cup at Parx.
Win -
#1 For Greater Glory – Ran third behind Majestic Harbor and Neck n’ Neck, inside post and he will like the added distance.
# 13 Bailoutbobby – The second Doug O’Neill trained horse that has been training well at Keeneland and gets Joel Rosario. #14 Zambian Dream – He is 20/1 on the morning line and has ran well in three long races in Chile on turf. Trained by Todd Pletcher and poised off of a 1 1/16 mile dirt prep race he can make a strong run. Outside post hurts.
#9 Majestic Harbor – Ran 2nd behind Neck ‘n Neck and should be close to the lead throughout.
#4 Neck ‘n Neck – Won the G3 Grand Cup at Parx, will try and repeat.
Bets -
$1 Tri Box – 1, 4, 9, 13, 14
$2 Exacta – 1, 13, 14 with 1, 4, 9, 13, 14
$0.10 Superfecta – 1, 13, 14 with 1, 4, 9, 13, 14 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14
$0.10 Superfecta – 1, 4, 9, 13, 14 with 1, 13, 14 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14
G1 Pick Four (Starting Race 6) -
6 7 8 10 13 / 3 / 5 7 9 / 1 4 9 12 – $37.50
or 6 7 8 10 13 / 1 2 3 5 / 7 9 / 1 9 – $40
Late Pick Four (Starting Race 7) -
3 / 5 7 9 / 1 4 9 12 / 1 4 9 13 14 – $30
or 3 / ALL / 1 9 / 1 4 9 13 14 – $70
or 3 / ALL / ALL / 1 13 – $225
Saturday G1 Pick Four Races 8 – 11
Race #8 – Breeders’ Cup Mile – Lots of contenders in this race and will go with a bunch of horses to try and make it through this race.
Win -
#9 Esoterique – Monster European turf horse with tons of class and has won his last two G1 in Europe.
#7 Tepin – Made a huge move to win a G1 at Keeneland on a soft course and 3 for 4 at this distance.
#12 Time Test – Won a G3 at Ascot and was 2 lengths behind Golden Horn in a G1 in Europe.
#1 Grand Arch – He won a G1 in early October on a yielding course and has trained well at Keeneland since.
#3 Make Believe – Won two G1 in Europe and ran behind Gleneagles at Ascot.
#5 Impassable – French import first time lasik for a solid trainer.
#11 Karakontie – Won this race last year and has only raced twice since. I have to put him on this year. He probably won’t even hit the board.
Race #9 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – A very wide open race with a bunch of maturing two year olds. There are a couple of horses that I really like and I think Nyquist and Brody’s Cause will be over bet.
Win -
#9 Exaggerator – Trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Kent Desormeaux (Teamed up on Texas Red last year) with a clean ride and fast surface this horse has a great chance to win.
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#10 Rails – He had a very tough race in the G1 Champagn, was jostled back and bumped a couple times, and will look to make amends. I am excited to see what this horse can do on a fast track and with the added distance.
#3 Greenpointcrusader – He won the G1 Champagn on a muddy track by 4.5 lengths and will look to get his third win.
#4 Unbridled Outlaw – He was checked twice in the G3 Iroquois and I like Dale Romans and Mike Smith together.
#13 Nyquist – Doug O’Neill trained horse that has won his last three out west including two G1.
#5 Cocked and Loaded - Won the G3 Iroquois by two lengths and gets a huge rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr.
Race #10 – Breeders’ Cup Turf – Golden Horn ships in from Europe with 7 for 8 record and will be the favorite. The Europeans generally dominate this race but we can get a horse at a good price if we can beat them.
#10 The Pizza Man – Big Cat’s Arlington Million winner and 2nd place by a head to Grand Arch in a G1 at Keeneland this month looks to win the biggest race of his career.
#7 Big Blue Kitten – Right behind The Pizza Man in the Arlington Million and won a G1 at this distance at Belmont.
#1 Golden Horn – Will be tough to beat but could have problems navigating from the rail and run into some traffic.
#6 Twilight Eclipse – Good class and likes the 1 ½ distance.
#9 Found – 2nd place at a G1 in Ascot and first time lasix for Aidan O’Brien.
#4 Slumber – Exits same race as Big Blue Kitten and Twilight Eclispe.
#11 Red Rifle – Rider lost his whip in the Turf Classic at Belmont and finished behind Big Blue Kitten and Twilight Eclipse can produce a much better effort.
Race #11 – Breeders’ Cup Classic – The race we have all been waiting for, American Pharoah and Beholder square off on what will be Pharaoh’s last race.
I think this is a two horse race between these two and I am on Pres side with Beholder winning. After watching her destroy everyone in the TVG Classic at Santa Anita I thought this horse could win this race. The rest of the field will have a hard time closing ground against these two in the final stretch.
Win -
#10 Beholder – Scratched
#4 American Pharoah
#1 Tonalist
2nd Tier in order of preference -
#2 Keen Ice
#9 Honor Code
#7 Smooth Roller – Huge class jump to these horses but I like him underneath in the exotics
#3 Frosted
Pick four options – Starting in race 8
1 3 5 7 9 11 12 / 3 4 5 9 10 13 / 1 4 6 7 9 10 11 / 1 4 – Singling Pharaoh will cut ticket price in half.
9 7 12 / 3 4 9 10 / 1 7 10 / 1 4
1 3 5 7 9 11 12 / 3 4 5 9 10 13 / 1 / 1 2 4 9
9 7 12 / 3 4 9 10 / 1 / 1 2 4 9
ALL / ALL / 1 / 4
Good luck to everyone this weekend.