Lights Out: What Lead To The Fall Of Justin Herbert & The Los Angeles Chargers
As a Chargers fan weathering through a winless season, this year obviously sucks. And as a stauch defender of Justin Herbert, it REALLY sucks because, for the first time, he individually looks terrible. But I don't feel like I currently agree with the assessments of the general media OR a lot of the fanbase right now.
On one hand, there are zealots that say Herbert does nothing wrong, even when he throws an interception directly into a linebacker's face. They're wrong. On the other hand, the haters that say this is all Herbert's fault because he sucks and he's always sucked. They're wrong. What I think tells the story of how the Chargers got here is simple: Organizational failure. And to really prove that, I want to go through what factors make up a winning football team.
It's not rocket science, but I think the 5 factors are a top Quarterback, Offensive Line, Defense, Receiver, and Runningback. You need 3/5 to win the Super Bowl. And if you don't believe me, just look at the last 10 winners.
(The lone exception being 9" Foles mandate from heaven)
It is the duty of the organization to try and keep all of these factors operating at a high level. THAT is where the Chargers have failed. What I think helps illustrate this fact is showing how they have performed relative to other franchises. Because if I give you a stat like how Herbert has been the most hit and sacked quarterback in the league since being drafted, there isn't as much impact. It only gives you two points of comparison, the Chargers and the rest of the NFL. Instead, lets compare them to specific teams.
Specifically looking at the performance of the teams of the usually agreed upon “top-5” QBs of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford and Joe Burrow since 2020, when both Herbert and Burrow were drafted. And in Staffords’ case, only started the data in 2021 when he was traded to the Rams.
As I mentioned before, I'm interested in the 5 factors. Working on the assumption that these quarterbacks are good, that means we're dialed in on:
- Lead RB yards
- Lead Receiver yards
- Defense Points Per Game Allowed
- Offensive Line Composite Ranking (Average of combined Pass and Run Block Win ranking with their end of year PFF OL rankings)
Here is what the averages look like over the last 7 seasons.
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The numbers back up what most fans praise and hate about these teams.
- Mahomes: The Chiefs have never provided him with an elite run game BUT have consistently provided a top level defense, OL and at least one elite target in Kelce.
- Allen: The Bills typically have good-to-great runningbacks, a top level receiver a good line (especially in pass blocking) and a top level defense.
- Lamar: The Ravens have shorted him at receiver (which has changed since drafting Zay Flowers) but has had consistent runningback help, really solid offensive lines and defenses.
- Stafford: The Rams have had top-level RB and WR play, average Offensive lines and defenses.
NOW is where we get to the real shit with the Bengals and Chargers.
After Joe Mixon left town, the Bengals run game has been consistently bad. However, he obviously has elite WR support. Where their organization has really failed, though, is giving him any help on OL or defense. The problem for the Chargers is that they haven’t done much better. And where the Bengals at least provided elite-level WR support, the Chargers have failed miserably.
Both franchises opened up some playoff windows and, for Burrow, it was 2021 and 2022.
In 2021, he got an all-pro WR Ja'Marr Chase WR criteria filled. RB Joe Mixon had 1200 yards on the ground. Criteria filled.. But his offensive line, as good as they were in run support, were bad in pass blocking and his defense was mediocre at best. But it was enough to squeak them into the playoffs where they went on a great run vs the Raiders, Titans and CHIEFS en route to the Super Bowl before losing to the Rams.
In that same 2021 season, Herbert had arguably the best offensive support he’s had his entire career. The offensive line was slightly above average at 13th in pass block win rate and it's one of the only years that both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams stayed healthy. And the result was Herbert accumulating 5,316 total yards, the 8th most by a quarterback in a single season ever. But there wasn’t top-level run support and their defense was cripplingly bad, giving up 27 a game. The result for the CHargers was winning one less game than the Bengals, which was enough for them to miss the playoffs entirely.
If you remember, their season ended in the final week of the season vs the Raiders. In a game where a tie would send both teams to the playoffs, Herbert was 6/6 for 106 yards and a touchdown….on fourth down. They made it to OT, exchanged field goals, and in a situation where the raiders were looking to run out the clock on 3rd and 4, Brandon Staley took a timeout. The Raiders promptly converted on the next play before kicking a field goal and sending the Chargers packing.
The following year, both the Chargers and the Bengals offensive lines got worse, their running games are both not great, and their receiver rooms get banged up. However, the Bengals defense became one of the better units in the NFL while the Chargers were stiull putrid. Burrow lead them all the way to the AFCC where the Chiefs took advantage of his shit line, grinding him into the turf.
The Chargers had a different experience. Brandon Staley, with playoff seeding set, decided to play his starters in the season ending matchup vs the Broncos. Mike Williams promptly broke his back ahead of their playoff matchup with the Jags. This left the receiving room as the following: Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter and Gerald Everett,
I’m sure you all know what happened there, but lets give it some context anyway. Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions in the first half. The Chargers offense scored 2 touchdowns and a FG off those turnovers, building out a 27-0 lead. The only one they didn’t score off of was started from their own 32 yard line. On their last drive of the half, WR Michael Bandy, a practice squad body elevated to fill Mike Williams spot, fumbled a jet sweep on third down, leading to a Chargers punt, which leads to a Jaguars score to close the half. 27-7
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With this lead, the name of the game is ball control and burning clock. The problem is that they can’t do either. RBs Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley combine for 7 net rushing yards in the half. Their one sustained drive, Cameron dicker misses a 40 yard field goal. Justin Herbert who, to his credit, was playing with fractured rib cartilage and a torn labrum and without Mike Williams, is 10/18 with 147 yards on the half. The Jags score 24 unanswered, Chargers lose.
After this, the Bengals window closes between their bad roster construction and Burrows injuries. We see it now opening back up, though, as some of the factors outside of receiver and QB improve. The Chargers, In the mean time, eventually pull the plug on Brandon Staley and replace him with with Harbaugh in 2024.
The biggest instant impact is that the Chargers defense goes from one of the worst to one of the best in the NFL. The run game had a slight improvement when JK dobbins was healthy, but the interior offensive line was terrible and the receiver room was not good. The top-3 receivers on the season were Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer and Will Dissley. McConkey is really solid when he plays but we know what Johnston is and, after this season, Josh Palmer went to Buffalo where he has 26 receptions in 2 seasons. Will Dissley, s blocking tight end, had a career year out of necessity. With these weapons, Herbert had 3 interceptions all season long.
Anyway, the solid defense and efficient play + easiest schedule in the NFL is enough to get them to the playoffs where they face a BUZZSAW of a defense in Houston. The run game was, once again, non-existent (26 yards from Dobbins) and the Texans pass rush correctly took advantage of mushy interior offensive line. Herbert was pressured non stop and thew 4 INTs. That number is typically used as a sticking point for haters, but take a better look at it.
I will squarely blame him for one (a cross body bomb to QJ, who has never fought for a ball his entire life). Terrible decision. But look at the other three. A slight overthrow that went through the hands of McConkey. An easy catch that Will Dissley shovel passed to a defender, and an end of game heave while already down big. I’m not saying any of them are good OR that Herbert couldn't have played better Just that the INT number requires slightly more context.
In 2025, the team got worse by every metric. Injures to Slater and Alt turned what was already a bad offensive line into the worst in the NFL. The WR corps still did not have an adequate X receiver, instead relying on Drops Johnston and a combination of cannibalizing slot work form McConkey and the returning Keenan Allen. And they had probably the worst run game of Herbert’s career so far. But because Herbert was careful with the ball, the defense was great and the schedule was forgiving, they were an 11 win team once again. And, once again, they got into a playoff matchup where their QB was beaten to hell with no support from his line or run game.
Vs the Patriots, the Chargers RB room netted 30 yards. Herbert was sacked 6 times, pressured 16 and hit 11. I don’t think anything sums the game up better than their last play. It’s 4th and 9, they gotta have it. With the extra blocker, there are 6 Chargers in protection. They face a 3 man rush from NE. Herbert is sacked 2.5 seconds into his dropback by Milton Williams, who runs straight through all 3 interior offensive linemen.
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But what did the Chargers front office do to get them into this situation? Lets look at it year-by-year.
2020
DRAFT: QB Justin Herbert goes 6th overall. They also trade a 2nd and 3rd rounder to move back in and select LB Kenneth Murray just a few slots before future all-pro LBs Jourdyn Brooks and Patrick Queen. Murray is an absolute bust but sticks around the team until they decline his option.
FA: They trade for OL Trai Turner who only plays 9 games with injuries. They also Sign OL Bryan Bulaga to a big deal, but he is also hurt and plays 11 games in 2 years before retiring. They also sign DB Chris Harris Jr. who is ok across 23 games.
RESULT: 7-9. The offensive line is the worst in the NFL and the RB room averages a miserable 3.9 YPC, but Keenan Allen and Mike Williams remain mostly healthy. This helps Herbert finish with, statistically speaking, the best rookie season by a QB in NFL history. HC Anthony Lynn gets fired and Brandon Staley is brought in.
2021
DRAFT: They pick LT Rashawn Slater in the first round. Don't get me wrong, Slater is elite when he plays. But he is currently the third highest paid lineman in football and he has missed over half his career snaps to injury. In R2, they take Asante Samuel jr. who is fine, but gets hurt, released and is now on the Steelers. In R3 they took WR Josh Palmer a few picks ahead of Nico Collins. He never is anything better than a WR3 and ends up signing with the Bills last season, not doing much there. Also in R3, they take TE Tre McKitty a few picks ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown. McKitty has 16 receptions in 3 years and is no longer in the NFL.
FA: They make C Corey Linsley the highest paid center in football and he plays like it for 2 seasons. But a couple games into his third season, he comes down with a heart condition and is forced to medically retire. They also let TE Hunter Henry walk (3/$37m), and he goes to New England where he has averaged 544 yards and 5 TDS since 2021. Over that same time, the Chargers have STILL not found a permanent fixture at the position. They also let LB Denzel Perryman walk (2/$6m), who ends up on the Raiders where he sets the franchise record for tackles.
RESULT: 9-8. The offensive line performs arguably the best it has been during his tenure with the team and the RBs average 4.2 YPC. But the defense is 29th in points allowed. But because the line is decent and weapons healthy, Justin Herbert has the 8th most total single season yards by a QB in NFL history. Obviously a little inflated because the defense is so bad, but volume does not equal quality for a QB unless they are good. And, with every team knowing they have to throw the ball, he had a 66% CMP, 38 PTD and 15 INTs.
2022
DRAFT: They select G Zion Johnson in the first round. He has a pretty up-and-down career with the team, performing the best probably last year as the one competent player on a dogshit offensive line. He parlayed that into a deal with the Browns this year. In the third round, they take S JT Woods, who had 8 tackles in 13 career NFL games.
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FA: They trade a 2nd and 6th rounder for LB Khalil Mack, which is the best single move the team made since drafting Herbert. They couldn't do a good thing without fucking up, though, as they also signed DB J.C. Jackson to a 5/$82m deal in what is arguably the biggest FA bust signing ever. He plays just 7 total games of the worst football you will ever see from a cornerback before being shipped back to New England for a 6th round pick. They also let LB Uchenna Nwosu walk (2/$20) who became an integral part of the Seahawks Super Bowl win.
RESULT: 10-8. The OL regresses to the bottom half of the league, the RB's regress to 4.0 YPC and the defense is 21st in points allowed. But the team is 10-8 vs a pretty easy schedule, they go into Jacksonville for Wild Card weekend and have their infamous collapse.
2023
DRAFT: They select WR Quentin Johnston one pick after JSN and one pick before Zay Flowers. As you all know, he has been an unmitigated bust. In R2, however, they get EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu who is great. In R3 they get LB Daiyan Henley, who found his groove when Jesse Minter came to town.
FA: They re-sign swing tackle Trey Pipkins and sign LB Eric Kendricks who lasts a year before being released.
RESULT: 5-12. The offensive line is just below average, the RB room retrogresses to an ABYSMAL 3.4 YPC and he defense is 24th in points allowed. To really put a stamp on how bad this team was, Herbert was hurt week 14 vs the Broncos and backup QB Easton Stick had to quarterback the next game vs the 5-8 Raiders. They lose that game 63-21. HC Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco get fired. Jim Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz get hired in the offseason.
2024
DRAFT: Harbaugh/Hortiz's first pick is RT Joe Alt. Like Slater, he is incredible when he plays. Also like Slater, he has missed significant time to injury. In R2, they select Ladd McConkey who has a great rookie season but has struggled with injuries. In R3, Harbaugh gets his Michigan man in LB Junior Colson. He's played 11 total games for the team and is currently on the practice squad.
FA: Left in a bit of a hole by the previous regime, they make a lot of cuts and a lot of coupon signings. Some of them are solid (RB JK Dobbins, LB Denzel Perryman, DT Poona Ford) and a lot are ass (WR DJ Chark, C Bradley Bozeman, TE Hayden Hurst, RB Gus Edwards). They cut WR Mike Williams and RB Austin Ekeler and trade WR Keenan Allen to the Bears for a 4th round pick.
FINISH: 11-7. The OL is 21st in the league and the RB room is still not great (4 YPC). The big jump is the defense, which allows the fewest points in the league. Herbert is fantastic taking care of the ball, only throwing 3 INTs on the year. Combine this with playing the easiest schedule in the league and you get an 11 win team. They go into Houston in WC weekend and get embarrassed yet again.
2025
DRAFT: They take RB Omarion Hampton in the first round. Hampton seems like a bruiser, but he msised half of last year with injury and hasn't been given the opportunity to do much of anything this season. In R2 they take WR Tre Harris who seems to be maxed out as a WR3 and in R3 they take DT Jamaree Caldwell who has been solid so far.
FA: With their first "war chest" they sign G Mekhi Becton to a 2/$20m deal. He cannot stay healthy, and when he does play he plays like ass. He ends up cut at the end of the year. They also sign RB Najee Harris who blows up his face with fireworks in the offseason and tears his achilles as soon as he returns to action. Mike Williams decides to return, spends a few days in training camp and decides to retire instead. The FO makes 3 good movies, signing CB Donte Jackson to a cheap deal and re-signing Khalil Mack and DT Teair Tart. They let Joey Bosa, Josh Palmer, Poona Ford and JK Dobbins walk.
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RESULT: 11-7. They have the worst OL in football and the defense has a slight regression to 9th in points allowed. The RBs average 4.1 YPC. Herbert has another respectable season in the face of horrible offensive circumstanced but, once again, they get bounced in the WC round.
2026
DRAFT: In R1 take OLB Akheem Mesidor who seems decent so far. They trade #55 away to the patriots in exchange for 3 picks. The Patriots use that pick for Gabe Jacas, who currently has 4 sacks and is the 13th rated EDGE on PFF. The Chargers used those picks on Jake Slaughter (24th rated C), Genesis Smith (56th rated S) and Logan Taylor (63rd rated G).
FA: They signed C Tyler Biadasz (knee exploded in training camp), G Cole Strange (One of the worst Guards in football), TE David Njoku (on IR) TE Charlie Kolar (injured blocking TE), FB Alec Ingold (terrible), G Kayode Awisoka (IR) and DT Dalvin Tomlinson (98th ranked DL).
RESULT: Winless. Herbert is a shell of himself.
Their FO process across the last 7 years has been undeniably successful at maxing out value from coupon signings. But the few big swings they opted into outside of Mack have not panned out. And, up until this season, Herbert was a shining light no matter what the circumstances were. 4300 total yards and 30 total TDs per season, 66% CMP and 9.7 INTs. Really good stuff.
But that is the Justin Herbert that was. Not the Justin Herbert that is.
To be clear, the situation around him right now sucks. His offensive line and receiver room is dogshit. The 3 headed RB is averaging 3.7 YPC. And his offensive coordinator seemingly did not do a good job coaching because this unit leads the league in pre-snap penalties. But, again, the situation around him is typically shit. The difference is that Herbert is typically great. He is typically efficient, takes an insane beating and makes throws that only he and maybe Mahomes could make. And he typically might have three or four bad turnovers in an entire season which is a respectable number for any elite QB
That's not the Justin Herbert of 2026. This Herbert is completely unrecognizable. He holds on to the ball too long. He's hesitant. He's throwing meatball subs directly to defenders EVERY SINGLE GAME. It is enough to drive anyone who has defended him completely insane. So here is where you have to ask yourself the question: Who deserves the blame?
I think there is only one entity to blame for the Chargers being 0-7 and that is the organization itself. They have consistently made the wrong calls. And you can look at that historically, not just during the Herbert era.
Over the last 25 years, just look at the hires after they canned Marty Schottenheimer following a 14-2 season. They hire Norv Turner, he coaches for 6 seasons, gets fired and never head coaches again They hire Mike McCoy, he coaches for 4 seasons, gets fired, never head coaches again (we’re not counting interim). They hire Anthony Lynn, he coaches for 4 seasons, gets fired, never head coaches again. They hires Brandon Staley, he coaches for 3 seasons, gets fired, hasn’t head coached since. These coaches are not trusted at this level again, meaning the organization made the wrong calls.
During this time, they had 3 GMs. AJ Smith was the GM for nearly 10 years, he gets fired, is a consultant for 2 more years before retiring. They hire Tom Telesco who is the GM for 10 years, he gets fired, makes it just one year as GM of the Raiders before getting fired. He’s a personnel advisor now. The people they hire are NOT trusted in those positions again. They made the wrong calls.
You can go even deeper in that moving the team from SD to LA, where they are MAYBE The fourth most popular football team, was the wrong call.
This organization doesn’t make the right call. This is what made the Jim Harbaugh hire so exciting. It seemed like they were really opening up the piggy bank and hiring the right guy.
But I want to look at the tenure of Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz in the same way you might view the promises of a politician. The core of Harbaugh's philosphy was simple. And I’ll show it for you word for word from his press conference:
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First of all, the quarterback that we have, protect him. Protect his environment. On the field, protect him. Also, beef up the run game and play-action pass and the drop back game, we're going to try to get as great as we can. I think that we can be extraordinary there with the receivers we have and the quarterback. Also, the running game, work just as hard at that and get to be a balanced type of a football team. Always protect the football. That's where it starts. Sometimes I tell other players that it's not that I love the quarterback more than anybody else on the team, I love all the players on the team like beloved sons, but the quarterback, he does touch the ball every single play. That person is somebody that we have to protect. I love the line, too. There's no other position group on the entire team that they don't rely on any other position to be good, but every other position relies on them to be successful. Then, the pass catchers, who also need to be really good blockers for us to have a good run game.
That was a big part of Harbaugh’s core promise:
- Protect Justin Herbert
- Beef up the run game
He has been an objective failure at both of these.
- For 3 years in a row they have fielded one of the worse offensive lines in the league.
- For 3 years in a row, Herbert has been one of the most hit QBs in football
- For 3 years in a row they have been a terrible rushing unit
I don’t know what the answer is for this team, but I can say a few things with certainty:
Regardless of what talking heads, randos or anyone who doesn’t watch Charger football says, Herbert has been a great quarterback since the moment he stepped foot in this league up until this year. But the reality is that, this year, he sucks. And it looks like the last 7 years have sucked every ounce of joy he had for the game out of him. To the point where I could see him, at best, asking to go to a competently run franchise and having a Matt Stafford arc or, at worse, retiring.
Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz have not delivered on what they promised to do when they were hired And after 3 straight years of declining results (not just win loss, but roster composition), their jobs should not be safe
This team does just feel cursed. Nothing ever seems to align correctly. When the Offense is working, the defense sucks. When the defense is working, the offense sucks. When things seem to start going right, key players come down with an injury never reported in the history of medicine.
I don't know how to fix this team. I do feel strongly that, despite injuries, McDaniel is clearly not a fit and has to go. Hortiz has also had 3 years to fix the offensive line and not done enough to do so. And Harbaugh's inaction in the areas of the game he actually controls as a CEO coach that doesn't call plays has sucked. But, as the worlds #1 Herbert defender, I cannot defend his play this year.