There Seems To Be A Huge Disconnect Between The Blackhawks Analytics And Public Information And Results

Another loss. Another game where you look at the score board in the 2nd period and the Blackhawks are being out-shot 20-6. The Blackhawks did a decent job competing throughout and being more in the game in the 3rd period (maybe Colorado took their foot off the gas), but it wasn't close enough. It didn't feel like the Blackhawks were ever going to win that game even when they had the lead early. Then in the post game, Blashill gave the quote above. And I think everyone is left feeling...perplexed. I think if you watched the game your eyes don't lie. It never felt like the Blackhawks had the edge in quality chances. Then...we get two other analytics sources saying what our eyes are confirming what our eyes are telling us.

These stats point more to a team at the bottom of the league. Blashill references the Hawks' internal analytics often and they're usually MUCH more favorable to the Blackhawks. I find that very troubling. Now, I don't know fuck all about their analytics. Nobody does. I think that is the point. I am pretty sure a good chunk of their analytics systems were developed by Jeff Greenberg who came from the Cubs and then left for the Detroit Tigers. 

I like analytics in general, but often, in hockey, I feel like they are WAY overvalued because of the nature of the sport. There are so many variables and the game is so fluid that I think it is impossible to find a predictive measurement. I've been saying that for about a decade now. If an analytic isn't predictive, they way they are in baseball, then I don't think they have a ton of value. It becomes more of an evaluation tool rather than something you can use to help design a plan to win games. 

What makes the Blackhawks stats sort of troubling is that I think it could potentially blind them to what is actually happening on the ice. If you believe the chances were 17-16 then you can explain away the results on the scoreboard with "they got tip in" and it was essentially bad luck. That's...not good. The team has been horrible for the vast majority of the year. It's not just that they're losing. It's how. And...tipped shots...those are good thing. I would LOVE to have the Blackhawks get more chances around the net from tip-ins and rebound like we saw Colorado get last night. 

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This is why I always pushed back against the Seth Jones haters in Chicago. They read a chart and decided he sucked. The best GM in the NHL watched Jones in Chicago and decided to give up a #1 goalie and a first round pick. Seth Jones got to Florida and was suddenly good again as he helped the Panthers win the Stanley Cup. He's currently playing over 25 mins a night. He didn't forget how to play in Chicago or at the end of his run in CBJ. The inputs into the algorithm didn't tell his story properly. 

If the Blackhawks' internal metrics are saying they're playing well, then it's time to reconfigure that algorithm.