Western Conference NBA Preview: The Pressure Is To Win Has Never Been Higher
While a lot of the major talent seemed to make its way to the Eastern Conference this offseason, make no mistake, the West is still loaded with some of the best players in the entire NBA. You could make the case that 4 out of the expected 5 players to make All NBA First Team reside in the West. The consensus top 3 MVP candidates reside in the West and all play on teams that consider themselves title contenders. Teams up and down this conference have the expectation of finally breaking through, which is what makes this upcoming season so exciting. Not everyone can take the leap! Some will fail!
Some out there may consider the West a two-horse race with SA and OKC, but I don't see it that way at all. Sure they may be the "best" teams out there, but there are plenty of teams that are, in theory, capable of making a deep run, and there sure as shit are players on those teams who have to start living up to their billing/hype/etc. I don't want to say legacies are on the line for some of these West teams….but legacies are sort of on the line. Let's begin.
Oklahoma City Thunder
2025-26 Regular season: 64-18, 1 seed
2025-26 Playoffs: Lost in WCF
Look, there's no need to overthink things when it comes to the Thunder. They are a machine. Three straight seasons of at least 57 wins, two of which include back to back 64+ win seasons, including an NBA title. The Thunder just put up back-to-back historic net rating/point differential seasons, and what makes them so devastating is that when it comes to the regular season, injuries simply do not matter for them. In 2024-25, their title year, Chet Holmgren only played 32 games. iHart played only 57, Caruso 54. Last year, they won 64 games with Jalen Williams only playing 33 games. Caruso again only 56. iHart 47, Ajay Mitchell 57, you get the idea. Unfortunately, those very same injuries are probably the reason the Thunder didn't go back to back, but if we're talking about the regular season and what type of team we'll be dealing with in 2026-27? The Thunder are a proven basketball machine.
It may feel silly to hear, but I consider the Thunder as one of the teams with a decent amount of pressure heading into this season. Remember, we're supposed to be living in this alleged Thunder Dynasty. Well, to be a dynasty you have to win multiple titles, so let's see it. This season is also the final year that the Thunder won't be a 2nd apron team. They were already over the 2nd apron before the Cason Wallace extension, and they just gave him $135M. Once you cross over, it starts your clock before decisions ultimately have to be made. You get a max of 2 years over the apron in most cases before the penalties start to matter, and we have no idea how long that ownership group is going to be willing to pay a $300M tax bill. My guess is 2-3 years.
Most likely, within a season they'll start trimming around their core (like every other former Champion in this era). Maybe that means guys like iHart and Caruso, or promising guards like Ajay Mitchell/Jared McCain, but the point is their roster will be changing before we know it. They already did a form of shedding this summer when they dumped Dort/Joe/Wiggins to push out their 2nd apron clock by 1 season. This is just how the CBA works, which is why all expensive contenders (like the Thunder are), have pressure to win the title every season in their current window. The Great Reset eventually comes for everyone, the Thunder will be no different.
So ultimately, that will be how the Thunder are defined. Either they win the title, or the season was a failure. When you put up historic numbers like they do and win at the rate they do, that's the expectation.
Which brings us to another major storyline for them. Have the Thunder solved their Spurs and Wemby problem? Make no mistake, they very much have a SA problem. I believe they lost 8 of the 12 meetings last year which is….not great! No team in the NBA gives the Thunder as much trouble as the Spurs, and after winning Game 7 on OKC's floor, the Thunder have to show they've figured it out. Because if they haven't? There could very well be no title in 2026-27 either.
Why might it not work out? Either they never solve their Wemby problem or the same issues creep up again. SGA's efficiency takes a dive in the postseason like we just saw last year, Cason Wallace doesn't take the necessary leap and they end up missing Dort's defense and timely shooting.
Considering this should be another 60+ win season with an MVP caliber season from SGA, the pressure is on to close the deal.
San Antonio Spurs
2025-26 Regular season: 62-20, 2 seed
2025-26 Playoffs: Lost in NBA Finals
It has been nearly impossible to avoid the collective basketball world all sucking the Spurs' dick this offseason. Let's just be honest about it. The GMs gave Wemby/Spurs pretty much every award/selection. Many think Wemby has already won the MVP, the Spurs are the best team in the West, their roster is loaded etc. All of those things very well may prove to be true, but we can admit the Spurs have easily been the most glazed West team of the offseason.
Having said that, you can understand why after the season they just completed. Had they not shit down their legs in the 4th quarter of every NBA Finals game, they'd be the Champs right now.
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But they did shit themselves, and they did it in rather embarrassing fashion. That finish combined with all of their hype entering the season, I would say the Spurs have the most pressure of any team in the West to win the title this season. I don't care if they are young. They got their experience last year, they have the supposed best player on the planet and Face Of The NBA. There's no excuse for this team to not win. Last year was the season you surprise everyone and come out of nowhere, and you get 1 season like that. Once you do it, a baseline gets established, and it's time to back it up.
And while it didn't get much hype, I like the Tobias Harris addition to this roster. It was a position of need, I certainly like what he brings offensively more than Keldon Johnson or Harrison Barnes, and as long as he's the 4th option or so I'd consider that a win. He was sneaky productive for the Pistons last year, and he certainly provides a skill set that offense needed.
As a reminder, the Spurs owned the 3rd best offense, 3rd best defense, and 3rd best net rating last year. They never turn it over, they were top 5 in TS% and they employ a basketball alien who is capable of doing shit like this
Title or bust.
Denver Nuggets
2025-26 Regular season: 54-28, 3 seed
2025-26 Playoffs: Lost in Round 1
For the sake of this blog, I am going to assume Nikola Jokic backs up his word and signs his extension, which will be the largest extension in NBA history. I don't care how their season goes, I'm putting him down for that extension.
But here's the thing. Just because the Nuggets may not have to worry about Jokic's future does not mean they don't have a wide variety of other issues and concerns to address. Since their 2023 title, the Nuggets have been going through their Great Reset. For them, that meant letting Bruce Brown walk. It meant trading MPJ. This season? They need to make a decision about the repeater tax.
See, the repeater tax is the sneaky motherfucker that really gets to slide under the radar while everyone just talks about the 2nd apron. Essentially, when you have an expensive roster, that starts your luxury tax clock. After 3 straight years over the tax, you become a repeater. Instantly, everything becomes MUCH more expensive. To reset, you need to be under for 2 years in a 5 year span. In 2025-26, the Nuggets got under the tax by just $605,496, so that was their Year 1.
Considering they are about to give Jokic a billion dollars, they enter this season with a question. Should they also get under this season to completely reset the repeater prior to Jokic's extension, or do you go for it one more time this year and then get under next year?
The math, makes it tricky. As of now, the Nuggets are $18M over the tax. A quick look at their cap sheet, and there are only a few ways of getting to that $18M
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Remember, since they have to get under by $18M, they can't exactly take back a lot of money in any potential trade. You basically need someone with space or a TPE to absorb the Nuggets' money into. Can they maybe do that with Cam Johnson as an expiring? Do they make a more drastic trade and move someone like Murray? Their options are limited. Cam Johnson is who they got for MPJ, so if you dump him you basically traded MPJ for nothing. Woof. Murray is a franchise pillar, but maybe they want out of that money and can find a trade partner to pass back someone who makes under that 30% cap hit.
This is why I think the Nuggets are at a bit of a crossroads. This very well be their last swing of Jokic's prime with this roster. They have to reset their repeater tax, which means moves are inevitable. Their season will be defined by when they choose to do it. February's trade deadline? Next summer? The clock is ticking.
Los Angeles Lakers
2025-26 Regular season: 53-29, 4 seed
2025-26 Playoffs: Lost in Round 2
LeBron is gone and the keys have officially been given to Luka Doncic. It's his team, the roster was built for him, and JJ Redick is out here saying it's the first time their roster has made sense in years. They got Luka his rim running center by mortgaging their future for Walker Kessler, they paid Austin Reaves, this is it. If everyone is a perfect fit around Luka like we're being told, and Luka is in this supposed best shape of his life like we're also being told, then there are no excuses. It's time for Luka Doncic to win the NBA title.
Entering Year 9 and his age 26 season, this is when players of Luka's stature win at this level. If he looks around at his current All-NBA First Team caliber peers, they've all done it. Jokic has his title, Giannis has his title, Tatum has his title, SGA has his title, Brunson has his title. Wemby looks like he's knocking on the door and nearly won one last year. If people consider Luka in the MVP/Top 5 camp, then he should be held to those standards, and the standard for all of NBA history has been that players of that caliber win a title. Especially when that player plays for the Lakers.
As we know, it's always been more "if" when it comes to Luka. You've seen it. Shit like "if" he had Player X he'd win a title. Or "if' he was healthy he would have won. Nobody has won more hypothetical titles than Luka Doncic. But here in reality, the pressure is on to finally reach the top of the mountain.
Can this Lakers team get there? I dunno, I'm not sure I'm ready to believe in the defensive ability of a Reaves/Luka backcourt. I'm also not sure Jake LaRavia is a starting caliber four on a title team, but what do I know? If JJ says this roster is perfect for Luka and the best one he's had in years, then OK no excuse. I will say I do love the addition of Mamu, he rules. Love Mamu. A very underrated stretch four/five that can do a little bit of everything.
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My guess is the Lakers will once again have a top 10 offense because Luka is that special, but I'm not sure they'll be higher than a bottom 3rd defense, and that's just tough to win with when you have to slay the other giants of the conference.
Houston Rockets
2025-26 Regular season: 52-30, 5 seed
2025-26 Playoffs: Lost in Round 1
Much like in the East where you have a team like the Raptors as a popular choice to make a leap into contention, that's exactly how I feel about the Rockets. They already had the 3rd best point differential in the West last year paired with a top 10 offense and top 6 defense. Their foundation is solid.
So what changes this season? Welcome back Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams.
Here's why those two players matter. The Rockets are going to dominate possessions. With FVV back, their turnovers are going to go way down with him as the primary ball handler. With Steven Adams back, their OREB% is going to skyrocket. What do we know about teams that take control of the ball and dominate the offensive glass? They win A LOT of games in 2026. Add in all the internal development from their young players and a #1 option in KD who still looks as good as ever, and this profiles as a team that could easily be in the mix for a top 3 seed (missed it by 2 games last year).
Given the Rockets aren't the best shooting team, how do you solve that? You just get all of your own misses, which is what Steven Adams does. Teams like OKC, NYK, BOS etc that have leaned into the possession-maxxing approach have all found elite levels of success, and that's how I view the Rocket's plan for 2026-27. Crush the possession battle and own the margins, let KD cook, then the leaps from the young guys. Could easily be a 55ish win team with normal health playing this way.
It's also time for Ime to start winning in the postseason. 2022 was a long time ago, and so far in Houston Ime has either missed the playoffs completely or lost in the first round. Now entering Year 4, the pressure is on for him to not only win a playoff round, but multiple rounds.
Minnesota Timberwolves
2025-26 Regular season: 49-33, 5 seed
2025-26 Playoffs: Lost in Round 2
In previous seasons, the Wolves were built with a single mission in mind. Beat Nikola Jokic. You know how the Thunder have a Spurs problem? The same is true for the Nuggets and the Wolves. After beating MIN in 2023, the Wolves have won the last two playoff series (2024, 2026). Now as the Nuggets transition into their next phase, it became clear that the Wolves needed to recalibrate to handle the new kings of the conference.
So what did they do? They completely revamped their roster with the LaMelo Ball trade. When you add an offensive engine like that, we basically have to forget everything we knew about the Wolves offense from prior seasons. Their style, their pace, their approach, all of that will be different for the Wolves this season. Based on what we've seen in the preseason, it looks electric as hell, and as a result expectations for this team are sky high.
In the same way that it's time for Luka to win, I would say the same is true for Anthony Edwards. Another player who is talked about as a top 5 talent, yet has never made All NBA First Team. Now Year 6 for him, by this time a lot of his peer by this age had at least made a Finals. Now with this revamped roster which many are calling the most talented roster Ant has ever had, well then he should have no problem breaking through and making his first Finals. At some point, you have to stop living off previous WCF runs and actually make the big one.
I'm interested to see how LaMelo looks now on a team with real expectations and how Ant's game adjusts now that he doesn't have to be the primary creator. We know they'll be rock solid defensively as a unit, so my question is how high can they climb offensively? Last year they ranked 13th, so you add LaMelo/Kuminga etc into the mix and can they get as high as top 5? For reference, that's where CHA ended last year. The entire Wolves experiment is either going to click and take them to new heights, or it's going to be a complete disaster that destroys the franchise from within. That sounds dramatic, but that's sort of where they are. This was their all in move. This entire era of Wolves basketball depends on them being right. Good luck!
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Phoenix Suns
2025-26 Regular season: 45-37, 7 seed
2025-26 Playoffs: Lost in Round 1
Welcome to the world of no real expectations. The Suns were a bit of a surprise team last season, with many thinking they'd enter a tank/rebuild following the Beal and KD trades. Instead, they rebuilt their entire identity. They play hard, they play the right way, they give maximum effort every night, all things that usually help jumpstart a culture and rebuild.
They tried the superteam route, and that didn't exactly work out. This time, they are being patient. They're banking on internal development and high value deals. Those types of builds take time, which is why I don't really think the Suns have all that much pressure heading into this season. Just keep building what you're building. If that's another mid 40s win team in the Play In, that's OK. Maybe you win a round with the right matchup. It's not as if they have to ever worry about Devin Booker asking out, so this season to me is more about pushing the rebuild forward.
For all we know, Koa Peat will flash as a rookie, guys like Maluach and Rasheer Fleming take a leap with their pathway to minutes, Oso Ighodaro plays with a new level of confidence after signing his extension, Ryan Dunn improves, there are many pathways to the Suns being a fun watch. I'm not sure how many people realize the Suns finished last year with the 9th best defense, so if they are able to make any progress offensively (17th), suddenly your rebuild starts to accelerate. What about a jump from say, 17th to 12th? Basically, can the Suns match the pre-Giannis Heat offense (114.2 ORTG to 115.8)? With a good Devin Booker shooting season, I can see it.
Portland Trail Blazers
2025-26 Regular season: 42-40, 8 seed
2025-26 Playoffs: Lost in Round 1
Here's the thing about the Blazers. I love some of their individual parts. I love Rob. I love Jrue. I'm pumped Dame is back home where he belongs. Clingan is about as good as you're going to get in terms of a young center prospect. Scoot Henderson intrigues me. Ja Morant does cool shit when he's on the floor, which I enjoy. The list goes on and on.
I'm just not sure I like how all the pieces fit together, which is my biggest concern with this team. I don't know how you can survive with a Dame/Ja backcourt defensively. I just don't think that's sustainable. I worry less about the offensive end and Ja needing the ball in his hands since Dame is beyond elite as a C&S player. But the other end? Who are they guarding?
In my opinion, they should swap Ja out for Jrue Holiday. Also, because Deni Avdija is going to need the ball as well, I'd rather have the spacing/shooting around him to help create driving lanes while also being a bailout option from deep should he get cut off on his way to the rim.
I'm also wary of the fact that the Blazers are the popular pick as a team to make a leap. That just makes me nervous because I feel like any time the Blazers have that sort of expectation, something bad happens to them. On paper as long as they stagger Ja/Dame correctly I can see why people may have them as a team to crash the top 6, but this may be a team that I have to see first to fully buy in. It's just been so long since Ja has been a net positive player, I need to see what that looks like.
Also something to monitor this year is the fact that they didn't sign Scoot Henderson to a rookie extension, resulting in him hitting RFA. Given their guard room, that might be something to monitor as the season goes on and if they have a need to fill. Maybe that's the guard that gets flipped.
Los Angeles Clippers
2025-26 Regular season: 42-40
2025-26 Playoffs: Missed playoffs
I mean, do we care about a team that's dead? It's not their fault, but for the foreseeable future, things are a bit cooked for the Clippers. Kawhi/Paul George aren't walking through that door, Lob City isn't walking through that door, it's bleak I can't lie. When you're not in contention and you don't have a future because your owner got caught cheating, that's a pretty tough spot to be. You want to find the positives and spinzone things, but what is there to say?
I suppose a full season of Darius Garland will be fun. He's an All Star level player when healthy, a great passer and even better shooter, so at least there's that. Granted, you do have to be concerned about him getting hurt, but while he's out there? He's fun.
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Keaton Wagler will be easy to root for as everyone hopes and prays he turns into a franchise caliber player. While their future may be fucked, at least they got one swing at a lottery pick. Imagine if that pick didn't convey? See, things can always be worse!
My guess is they'll probably look to flip Rui Hachimura at the deadline to maybe recoup some draft capital, maybe Kris Dunn or DJJ as well. That's really all they can do at this point, build up those guys to hopefully try and flip. Maybe you get a protected 1st, or even a couple 2nds. Anything helps the Clippers at this point more than those guys do on their roster. So that's something to look forward to, I guess.
It sucks. At the end of the day, Clippers fans are the ones who suffer. All for a player who didn't even really do shit in the grand scheme of things. That's tough.
Golden State Warriors
2025-26 Regular season: 37-45
2025-26 Playoffs: Missed playoffs
How are things going in the Bay? Eh, not great. For starters, nobody knows what the hell is going on with Kristaps Porzingis. The only thing we do know is that he doesn't have HIV or AIDS, but I'm not sure how that helps the basketball side. Next up, they're already dealing with Steph injury scares
which probably isn't the best sign for a 38 year old. They say he's fine and it was just a tweaked ankle which is the prayer Warriors fans needed, but I'm still not sure that makes me feel great. How is he going to hold up once the real games start and he has to shoulder the offensive load? He already has a running knee issue, so a tweaked ankle doesn't sound great.
On the plus side, the Warriors finally found a rookie that Steve Kerr doesn't hate in Yaxel Lendeborg so that's a huge win. He's starting right out of the gate and will probably play a pretty big role which is exciting. He was nails over the summer and looks ready to contribute right away, which was his whole selling point in the Draft. For a Warriors team that needs good talent NOW, I'm excited to see how it goes in real games.
As always, as long as Steph Curry is alive and on the court, you have to take the Warriors seriously. Without him? Hot garbage. At least until Jimmy Butler comes back. There are some guys I'm interested to see in an expanded role like Gui Santos. I just don't know how you survive a frontcourt of Draymond/Al. That's why Porzingis was so important. You can't keep relying on Al Horford to carry like that, even though he is a Knight and a Champion.
New Orleans Pelicans
2025-26 Regular season: 26-56
2025-26 Playoffs: Missed playoffs
Here's the thing about the Pelicans. I can't quit them. Every year I allow myself to get sucked into the idea that "this" year could be the year things flip for them. Why? Because I really like the pieces of their roster. It should work. All I ask is can the Basketball Gods finally give them a break when it comes to health. Let us just see what it looks like.
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I look at this roster, and I see legit talent
It has shooting, solid young bigs, good length on the perimeter, versatile wings, scoring off the bench, all things that usually translate to wins. Will Jamahl Mosley be the one to figure it out and put it all together? I'm skeptical. He had a bunch of talent with the Magic and had arguably the worst offense of all time. Never improved, never switched things up, none of that. I'm not sure he's going to do much better than the Pelicans 20th ranked offense last year.
Defensively? This is an area I do think Mosley can help. As we know, for any team to make a leap in the NBA, they first have to show real progress defensively. The Pelicans are not good enough on offense to also survive with a 23rd ranked defense. That math doesn't work. If they are going to be a middle of the pack offense, then they have to get to being a middle of the pack defense. That's their pathway to winning, and I see names like Murray/Murphy/Jones/Mathurin and there's no excuse for this team to be so piss poor defensively. Grow up and lock in. Sure injuries didn't help, but this isn't exactly a new issue. Once the Pelicans start to actually get stops, their offense will take off.
Dallas Mavericks
2025-26 Regular season: 26-56
2025-26 Playoffs: Missed playoffs
Only two things really matter when it comes to the Mavs. There's the return of Kyrie following his ACL injury, and then there's Year 2 Cooper Flagg.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if this was Cooper's first All Star season, and I'm definitely excited to see him next to Kyrie. Given the hell that Nico Harrison put Mavs fans through, at least there's reason for excitement entering this new season. It certainly helps that Cooper Flagg is a hit and future franchise savior, and the last time we saw Kyrie as a Mav he was pretty good so that should be fun. Anything they get from Zaccharie Risacher is essentially found money, and I do like their depth with Sasser/Christie/Maji Marshall/Gafford/Cisse. Remember, this is Year 2 of their rebuild, so while you could make the case they should be flipping older players for assets, I think it's actually important you try and have as much talent as you can around Cooper Flagg. Try and be good, and that experience will help him. Get into the Play In, push a team in Round 1, those reps help franchise players the sooner he can get them.
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The health of Dereck Lively is obviously a huge concern, but that's what Gafford/Cisse are for. Go small with Morez Johnson or something. It's hard to know what the Mavs will look like at this level under Dusty May, but my guess is things will flow heavily through Kyrie and Flagg.
Memphis Grizzlies
2025-26 Regular season: 25-57
2025-26 Playoffs: Missed playoffs
There's a non zero percent chance that the Memphis Grizzlies walked out of the 2026 NBA Draft with the best player. Have you seen Cam Boozer?
Since Day 1 of Summer League Cam Boozer has looked pretty incredible. I know there really wasn't a bad choice in the top 4 of this year's Draft, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if we look back and say Boozer was the best player. Wild concept that a player who has been awesome at every level of basketball is also awesome at the NBA level.
With Boozer looking this good, you pair that with severely underrated Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward and Zach Edey, and I dunno, I'm intrigued. Even if the Grizzlies don't win a ton of games, they should still be fun as hell to watch, and that's good enough for me. For a rebuilding team, all I'm asking from you is to be watchable, and I actually think the Grizzlies can be feisty. Why can't they fight for a 10th seed Play In spot with good health?
It feels like they're going back to their Grit & Grind roots with the addition of Isaiah Stewart, and that's probably for the best. Just grind teams to death and see who wins. If Edey can stay on the floor I think they'll be able to improve from their 27th ranked defense, and even the slighest jump on both ends can get you into Play in range. You just need mid-high 30s for that, and since the Grizzlies aren't tanking anymore, maybe they can get there.
Utah Jazz
2025-26 Regular season: 22-60
2025-26 Playoffs: Missed playoffs
The Jazz find themselves in a similar boat. OK, your tanking is over. You did it, and it worked. You lost a shit ton of games and were rewarded with multiple high lottery picks. The tanking rules have changed, you have your talent, now comes the winning part. Time to show some actual progress. I'm looking at you Will Hardy. The losing wasn't on you, that was a mandate from the Ainge's. But now? Now you have to show you're capable of winning at the NBA level. Nothing crazy, but certainly much better than 22-60.
Roster-wise, they should have pretty much everything you need. Keyonte George took a nice leap last year and just signed a massive extension to be your franchise point guard. Darryn Peterson is your prized rookie. Lauri is an All Star caliber player, as is JJJ. There's good young depth with Collier, Sensabaugh for shooting, and Ace Bailey for potential. Just like with the Grizzlies it starts on the defensive end, and I would think a full year of JJJ and actual effort should be able to improve their 29th ranked defense. Say they get that to around 20th. I think that can get them into the 30s in terms of wins with just that alone, and not even factoring in any sort of offensive jump.
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The thing that makes it hard with these tanking teams is we've only seen them try and intentionally lose. Once that stage is over, how do you look when trying to win? Is there a difference? At some point all the losing need to start to translate to wins, so while the Jazz don't have pressure to win the NBA title, there is a decent amount of pressure to show that you can at least start to turn the tide and win basketball games. That's ya know….the whole point of tanking in the first place.