Who The Hell Is Going To Be The 5th Starter For The Boston Celtics? The Good News Is There Is No Wrong Answer
Well friends, we did it. In a journey that began in mid-July out in Vegas, the next time we see the Boston Celtics play basketball, the games will count. After completing an undefeated preseason and looking like a team that's already in midseason form (10th in offense, 1st in defense, 1st in net rating), the only way I can describe what we just watched over the last 4 wins is that this was easily one of the most intoxicating preseasons in recent memory. Absolutely every single thing I prayed to see before the preseason happened. Everyone and everything was as advertised. Paul George's defense? Yup. Tatum looking like his pre-injury self? Yup. Another leap of internal growth for all the young wings? YUP. Mitchell Robinson being awesome? Yup. The possession maxxing approach? I'm not sure how this team loses if they're going to be causing a shit ton of turnovers while also securing close to 40% of their misses.
What also made this preseason interesting from a roster perspective was that there was this giant question hanging over the whole thing.
Who is going to be the 5th starter?
For the most part, the first 4 are locked in. Tatum/White/George/(Mitch or Queta) are set in stone. I get saying set in stone is confusing as I gave two names for the Center spot, but Joe isn't starting double-big, so just pick whichever one you prefer.
What was up for grabs was the 5th spot, and there were four separate candidates that had the preseason to make their case. Each candidate brings something different to the table, and there really isn't a wrong choice. That's the beauty of how this roster is constructed. Now that we've seen everyone play, this is an even more impossible question since every single one looked awesome. I would have no problem starting any of Pritchard/Hugo/Walsh/Baylor as the last spot with those other four starters. Each one fits in different ways.
So what the hell should they do? I was thinking the same thing, so let's go through what I would consider the pitch for each guy.
Payton Pritchard
It probably makes the most sense to start with Payton. Pritchard, fresh off his extension, is entering another season of "should he/shouldn't he" when it comes to being the starting point guard. This is a role we saw him fill for 50 games last season (16.9/4.3/5.3 on 57% TS), and I would argue that he showed enough to prove that he can in fact be a starting point guard at this level. When he moved back to the bench over the last 29 games his numbers were pretty identical, but he did have a bump in efficiency (60% TS). I do think that's something to note given the context of this conversation.
Based on what we saw this preseason, Pritchard didn't start any games and looked as good as ever. Some may say he even showed the seeds of what many think will be another leap given his increase in usage this season
For me, it's a combination of what I saw last year with Pritchard in that role and how that was successful, anad also what the data tells us that for the moment, has me leaning Pritchard as the guy. Here's his case.
When looking at a larger sample, I can't get past how loud this production is
It is very obvious that the Pritchard/Tatum pairing works, and you can understand why. Pritchard is an elite off-ball shooter who demands his defender stay attached. Because he can spread things out to 30ft+, it gives Tatum all the space in the world that he needs to operate. That gives the defense two choices. You either send help to prevent Tatum from getting to the rim and it leads to open 3s, or you don't help off shooters and a 70% rim finisher does what he does best.
You can also utilize him as an offense initiator in P&R with Tatum as a screener, something we saw a lot more of this preseason. Tatum's USG% jump in my opinion should be coming from more off ball/screening work than an increase in iso reps, and the 2 man game with Pritchard intrigues me. Especially as he continues to get better and better at finishing in the paint.
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Then, we look at the 4 man lineup data. I get it, it's only 207 minutes, so there's noise. But what it does do is give you a general idea of the type of monster lineup we could be dealing with. Slide George in as the 5th guy in that lineup, and then think of the defense and spot up shooting he provides. You can understand why that's a REALLY attractive option.
That group is elite at the rim, elite from three, elite from the midrange, elite on the glass, all while being completely dominant on the defensive end. That's not my homerism talking, that's literally what the data is telling us. This combination works, and with George, it's easily going to be their best lineup.
So why isn't this a slam dunk answer? Because it's complicated. As easy as it is to make the case to start Pritchard, there's also a just as valid case that his current role off the bench is just as good/valuable. That with staggering lineups you can still have him play with Tatum before his first sub, and since he'll be closing anyway there's no problem utilizing a different skillset for the starting group
Hugo Gonzalez
Which brings us to Hugo. Coming off an awesome Summer League, the next step was to see how Hugo looked against the higher level of competition that the preseason brings. Our answer? Fucking incredible
If you find yourself struggling to remain on planet Earth when it comes to Year 2 Hugo Gonzalez, welcome. Our support group meets every Wednesday, and there are snacks.
If it's wrong to be over the moon when it comes to what I just watched Hugo do over 4 preseason games, then I don't want to be right. To me, he played the best out of any of the young wings, and I'm not sure it was close. That's saying something because everyone played well and showed flashes, but Hugo's all around impact cannot be ignored.
The self creation we saw him get reps in during the Summer League? That shit is real. I'm ready to call it. I now fully trust Hugo to put the ball on the floor and make shit happen. His pace has been great, it looks like he attacks with a plan now instead of his rookie year where he really only spammed the Eurostep into a layup. Now, he uses that Eurostep both as a finishing move and a way to create some interior passing, and overall he feels WAY more under control.
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Summer League also showed us an improvement as a pullup 3pt shooter, which as we know is an extremely important shot for any offensive hub to have. In today's NBA, you need to be able to be a threat as a pull up shooter. I'm seeing Hugo take and make pull up 3s with incredible confidence. He shot 55% from deep on 5.0 a game! The solid C&S numbers we saw last year look just as real, and now he's starting to expand his shot profile.
His two way skillset is VERY enticing when put next to the other 4 starters. Hugo is a margins demon, and that's something I would like to inject into that group next to Paul George, another margins demon. Based on what I saw from his ability to knock down corner C&S 3s, I believe Hugo will be able to make teams pay who cheat off him, which is a huge part of this role. You have to be able to make your open looks, and no young wing shot better than Hugo this preseason.
Here's what we know. When Hugo is on the floor, this team goes to another level. I'm not so sure we aren't looking at the Celtics 2nd best player in a year or two.
I'm ready for 25-30 minutes a night of Hugo Gonzalez playing basketball. This offensive leap continues to look real, he doesn't need the ball to make an impact, he's strong as fuck and can guard on the perimeter and is someone I feel OK about if they were to get switched onto a bigger player. There's also this to consider. I think we may have a situation where Hugo might have a superstar whistle. The fact that he got away with this travel
tells me that for a team that needs someone to make a leap in FTAr, what if Hugo can be that guy if his whistle is this good in Year 2? I'm not ruling it out.
Jordan Walsh
Full disclosure, I own so much Jordan Walsh stock it's basically 75% of my retirement portfolio. I just have a feeling about him in my bones that I'll never shake. I watch him play and the flashes do dangerous things to my brain. You can see the potential and fit and how much he looks like a certain someone in certain moments
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Much like Hugo, it was noticeable this preseason how Walsh shot the ball from deep. Last year gave us a first glimpse at the C&S leap, which as I mentioned is a minimum requirement of this off ball role. When Tatum draws the defense, you need to make your open look. Period. Walsh put up a 40% C&S season, so the signs where there that he was ready.
Now, I'm watching him be much more comfortable with threes off the dribble, which is an important step in his development. He was still solid in his C&S opportunities and shot 38.9% overall from deep this preseason, so I'm ready to say his shooting isn't that much of a concern to me. I think he's shown he can make open looks, and there might be more on the way.
So the case for Walsh as a starter begins to make sense. If the shooting is passable, then his defensive versatility cannot be ignored. He could very well be one of the best on ball defenders in the entire league, and in a season in which the team is going to lean heavily into creation turnovers, that's something Walsh does at a high level. His wingspan, the ability to stick to his man even around screens, his ability to recover defensively as a trailer, these are all things that can help maximize the starting unit.
I feel OK about him guarding down and being matched up with a quicker guard, and I feel OK about him guarding up as well. He's a guy who is an elite rim finisher who is showing signs of improved creation/rim pressure, so I do think there are opportunities for him to punish defenses when they're forced to be spread out while Tatum is on the floor. He's also a great option as a dunker spot player, something we saw the 2024 title team kill opponents with that we didn't really see the 2026 team do. I'd welcome that approach/positioning back into the offense for the 2026-27 season.
Baylor Scheierman
The thing about Baylor Scheierman is that he's an insanely cool player. That matters. His style of play, his hustle, his ability to impact the margins, the ability to stretch the floor and make defenses respect his jumper, the vision, all of it together is a lot of the stuff you want in this 5th starter spot
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Because I'm deranged, I personally prefer Baylor to play the Temu Tatum role with the 2nd unit in the non-Tatum minutes, but I do think Baylor showed promise in his 20 starts last year (9.6/5.9/2.3 on a 58% TS%). He gives you versatility both as an off ball player and a on ball creator, his spot up shooting is good and as a connective passer, I think he can absolutely play a role there.
My thing is, I don't think he's a better defender than Walsh or Hugo, and he's not a better offensive player than Pritchard. Still VERY awesome and will play a big role this season, but I'm not sure compared to the other options that he makes the most sense.
Naturally this will probably mean he's the guy Joe starts, but I think the other cases are a tad stronger.
FINAL VERDICT
So where does that net out? It depends. There's what I would prefer to happen and what I think Joe will actually do. If it's my ranking, I'm entering the season
1. Pritchard
2. Hugo
3. Walsh
4. Baylor
When it comes to what I think Joe will do?
1. Walsh
2. Pritchard
3. Hugo
4. Baylor
the real answer might be that the 5th spot is going to rotate. That there is no set in stone player, similar to what we saw last year with Walsh/Minott/Baylor etc, and you know what? I don't hate that either. Do it based on matchup, do it by who's playing the best at that time, that's fine by me as well.
So who would you go with? Again, there's really no wrong answer.