On Christian Gonzalez, Now is Not the Time for Fear. That Comes Later.
For the purpose of this post, I'll start with the relevant movie quote, and then work backwards.
When this dreamy Silver Fox went to Patriots OTAs earlier in the week:
... I only made one passing reference to the players who weren't there. And only drilled down on the absence of Kayshon Boutte, since it appears for all the world he's been missing all the workouts this offseason because he's going to Philadelphia in the AJ Brown deal. Which makes it more interesting than, say, Harold Landry skipping an optional practice.
More importantly, I buried the lede on Christian Gonzalez No-Showing this thing is because I expected nothing different. Mike Vrabel was asked about the Gonzalez population at his practice being at zero and shrugged it off with "Those are personal choices for players. I would say that I value the communication that I’ve had personally (with Gonzalez). I know that our defensive coaches have had conversations with Christian." Which was not only encouraging, it kept him from getting fined by the league for suggesting that any player who wasn't there, should be there.
But by not getting into the topic, I'd underestimated how huge a topic this would be in New England. Not so much because the second most valuable player on the Pats isn't working out with his teammates. But because the Celtics and Bruins were one-and-dones and the 2026 Red Sox are New Glenn:
So to the minimal extent that I've listened, the talk shows all seem to be going Full Gonzo, Full Time. He's skipping OTAs, which means he's disgruntled. He's making outrageous demands. He wants to be overpaid. The team is cheaping out on him. He's going to hold out. This is the first real test of the Vrabel Administration. How soon will the locker room start to fracture? How bad will it get and when should fans start to panic? We'll get to your calls right after these ads for auto glass at at 617 …
I get it. May and June are death when your winter teams are done and your baseball team is a punchline. So desperately leaning into the Panic Porn is a survival strategy. But does it have any bearing on this situation?
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No. At least not yet. [Bane voice] That comes later.
I'm going to assume Gonzalez and his agent expect him to become the highest paid corner in NFL history. That is not an unreasonable demand. At all. You can argue he shouldn't be, because you don't think he's the best corner in the league. But it doesn't work like that. It's about talent and performance, but it's also about timing. It's about your rookie deal coming to an end when you're the best available free agent. Which is where Gonzo is headed, eventually. And should he make it that without an extention in New England, he's going to blow past Trent McDuffie's $31 million AAV (4-year, $124 million, $100 million guaranteed). It's no more complicated than that. You either make him the highest paid at his position, you lose him, or you trade him for whatever ROI you can get for a guy who will make that money. Those are your only options.
The conventional wisdom on the Patriots was that during their Dynasty years, they didn't pay top dollars, and that's how they stayed competitive for two decades. But that's a myth. Or to be more precise, a lie. On Bill Belichick's watch, they had some holdouts. And ocassionally let players walk rather than pay them. They franchised Adam Vinatieri and Asante Samuel for a year before they let them go to free agency, because Belichick thought their best football was behind them and they could be replaced. With mixed results.
But other guys who did hold out, got their bag. Mankins became the highest paid interior offensive lineman in NFL history. Vince Wilfork became the highest paid interior lineman. Rob Gronkowski, the highest paid tight end. On more than one ocassion, Tom Brady was making more than any player, ever. The Dynasty was built on keeping a broad middle class of salaries and maintaining cap flexibility. But it was also about built on a foundation of top-tier talent. Yes, the same Belichick who loved Wes Welker at $3 million/year hated him at $9 million. But he also recognized Welker was aging, his drop % was going up every year, and believed he had his replacement (Young Welker) on the roster in Julian Edelman. And he was right.
I can't see any scenario in which Vrabel and Eliot Wolf convince themselves they've got Gonzo: The Next Generation stashed away on their depth chart, ready to emerge. Talents like this don't come along very often:
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Gonzalez lined up opposite Jaxson Smith-Njigba 14 times in Super Bowl LX. He was targeted three times. And gave up one reception, for 16 yards. Whatever else went wrong in that game, it wasn't him. And as fate would have it, the same matchup will happen in Week 1, provided the Pats and the players agents come to an agreement between now and then. Gonzalez shouldn't - and won't - play for the $4 million he's got coming to him this year. And the Pats shouldn't - and won't - attempt to exercise the 5th year option for 2027.
If he's absent for the start of training camp, or if he does make his feelings known by pulling a Matt Judon-like clown show, we can start to worry. If we hit the Seattle game on September 10th and there is no extension, sure, it's time to panic. But given that Gonzalez is all scheduled to play softball with Drake Maye, Vrabel and Dave Portnoy:
… I think it's safe to assume everything is going according to plan.