Now Having Won 10 Of Their Last 12, The Celtics Look Primed And Ready For The Pursuit Of Banner 19
Brian Babineau. Getty Images.3 in a row. 6 of their last 7. 10 of their last 12, and more specifically, 10 of their last 11 with Jayson Tatum in the lineup. When the Celts laid an egg against the Timberwolves on March 22nd and saw their lead in the race for the 2 seed drop to just 1 in the loss column, they had a choice. They could have let go of the rope, let the Knicks pass them, and even potentially have had to deal with a late-season streaking Cavs team. As I blogged the other day, finishing a top 3 seed for a team with title dreams is pretty much non-negotiable. About 99.9% of NBA champions finished with 52 wins (or shortened season equivalent) and a top 3 seed. To argue against that fact would most likely mean your favorite team is currently sitting outside of the top 3, but NBA history is NBA history.
So, what did they do instead?
5 wins against playoff teams, none of which were all that close, with their only loss coming on a travel B2B. Now, they sit 3 up in the loss column over the Knicks (who play ATL tonight), and 4 up in the loss column over the Cavs with just 4 games left to play. In what was seen as a pretty touch end of season schedule, we've seen the Celts play some of their best basketball of the year, and for the first time really all season are now "fully" healthy with both Tatum and Vucevic back in the lineup. In theory, they can get even better than what we're currently watching, which is pretty crazy to think about, considering what we are watching is already one of the best teams in the entire NBA.
With CHA/NYK/NO/ORL to close out the year, can they win out? Possibly. That Pelicans game is a B2B, so I doubt Tatum plays in that one, but for me, what now becomes most important is health. After another game or two, the seeding should be figured out, and then it just becomes about ending the year without any major injuries, getting rest during the Play In, and then the journey to Banner 19 begins. Crazy to think we're already at this point of the NBA season and the Celts are looking at 53+ wins and a top 2 seed, but that's the beauty of sports baby.
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With games against teams like MIA/TOR/CHA/ORL, these are also good little mini tests against teams you may end up seeing in the first round of the playoffs, so while usually an end of season matchup doesn't have too much significance outside of just stacking overall wins, I do think things are a little different with this stretch considering it's likely the Celts have a series against one (or more) of these teams at some point. All that information matters. Those reps matter.
The early results? Pretttayyy prettttayyy good. Let's dive in.
The Good
- I know he can't make All NBA because he didn't hit the 65 Game mark, but who gives a shit. I know what I'm watching, and what I am watching is Jayson Tatum perform at a 1st Team All NBA level. This should surprise nobody considering ya know, Tatum made 4 straight All NBA 1st Teams before getting hurt, and here we are just 14 games off an achilles injury and it's like he never left.
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Another 20/5/5 game (only Jokic has more this season), and please for the love of good look at this rebounding production. Of all the incredible parts of Tatum's return, very high on the list for me is the fact that we're seeing Playoff Tatum rebounding right from the jump. You know how every postseason Tatum decides to get serious and immediately averages 30/10/6? That's basically what we're seeing since his return, especially as of late as he continues to get into better and better game shape
26/12/8. Like I said, we're watching a 1st Team All NBA player just 14 games back from a devastating injury. Tatum now has 9 double doubles in his first 14 games, and I'm supposed to believe this is normal? You want consistency? OK, how the fuck does this look to you???
All that crying about efficiency, well guess what? Tatum is sitting at a 57% TS% over his last 5 games and a 60% TS% over his last 3. His pull up 3PA? You know, the most important shot in the entire Celtics offensive ecosystem? That's now up to 48.0% on a team leading 6.3 3PA a game over the last 4 games. If you go back even further and look at his last 10 games, that number is 40.7% on nearly 6 3PA a night. You can always tell when Tatum is feeling like Tatum again when he's this locked in on his pull up 3s.
This is an extremely important shot for a few reasons. For starters, with Neemy on the floor we're seeing opposing defenses be so worried about the roll/lob threat, that teams are playing the Tatum P&R with drop coverage. That is a terrible idea, because you're just asking Tatum to bury you with easy pull up 3s. Then, if you worry too much about that shot where you then decide to defend Tatum at the level in an effort to take away that shot, OK cool! No problem there because remember, this is the best passing wing the NBA has ever seen since LeBron James.
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This is why I continue to say that Tatum's pull up 3PA is the most important shot in the Celtics offensive ecosystem. The choices it forces a defense to make have no good answer. You either choose death by 3PA or you choose death by Neemy dunking on your face.
This playmaking we're watching from Tatum in his return isn't exactly new, as I believe he took his major passing leap in the Bubble, but what we're seeing now is a player who truly has complete control of the floor. The way he's reading defenses, the way he knows how and where to put the ball, this is all elite level shit we're seeing from a 6'10 ball handler
It sounds crazy to say, but with each passing game I can't shake the feeling that we're watching an even better version of Jayson Tatum following his injury, which doesn't even feel possible yet here we are. The only thing we're not really seeing is the rim protection, but that's nitpicking in my opinion. The defense, the three level scoring, the playmaking, the rebounding, these are all things that are not only vintage Tatum, but they are all things being produced at a level that make the Celtics a completely different team with a completely different ceiling, and their ceiling was already pretty damn high when Tatum was out!
- Just like we saw against the Heat and Bucks, if you are a team that does not employ a legit frontcourt, get ready to learn getting your ass kicked by Neemias Queta, buddy
Of all the players who were going to benefit from Tatum's return, I don't think anyone has seen their life change more in the last month than Neemias Queta. For the first time he's finally experiencing the Tatum boost, and to no surprise he's aboslutely flourishing
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Unfortunately, the NBA is extremely weird when it comes to the Most Improved Player award, but there is no doubt Neemy has certainly made his case
I'm just not sure enough people realize how ridiculous it is to go from a 4th string big who never played, to suddenly being a top 10 center (at worst) the very next season? Is that not the definition of Most Improved? From DNP-CDs to essentially 10/10 a night with a few blocks on a title contender playing starter minutes?
It also feels like we're seeing Joe get Neemy ready for the playoffs if you look at his minutes recently. He's usually around 28 or under, and so far this month we've seen 33 minutes, 29 minutes, and 34 minutes. If the Celts can ramp him up to 35+ in the playoffs and he continues to find ways to stay on the floor without fouling, that is going to be a very big deal for their playoff chances. The way Neemy has been rebounding the ball, the way he keeps his hands high and is learning how to play off the Jays and thrive when opposing defenses give them all the attention, it's largely what helps make the Celtics scheme-proof when they're at their best.
In the previous game, it was outplaying Myles Turner who the Bucks gave $100M to. Yesterday, it was Jakob Poeltl, who also got $80M from the Raptors. Here is your reminder that Neemias Queta makes $2M this year and $2M next year.
- There's a reason Joe Mazzulla is so obsessed with the margins, and that's because he knows what the fuck he's talking about. When the Celts are on their shit when it comes to the margins of a game, they become too overwhelming for their opponent. In this win, they won the shot margin, they dominated the glass, they dominated the paint (76 paint points!!!!!!!!), they dominated 2nd chance points, and defensively they held the Raptors to just 101 points.
These aren't flashy or loud parts of a game, but they are extremely important to the process of winning. It's how in a game the Celts shot 28% from deep while only taking 28 3PA, they can still blow a team out. I could argue that if not for some poor ball security and trash transition defense, things would have looked even better.
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In the playoffs, winning the possession battle might be the most important aspect of any game or series. Can you end defensive possessions cleanly, and can you take care of the basketball? If you do those two things, when you add in everything else this team can do, that's how you make deep runs. But if you don't rebound and are careless with the ball? It's how you lose series you have no business losing (see: 2023 Heat, 2025 Knicks).
- For all the talk about how Jaylen Brown "was going to have to change how he plays" and how "Tatum was going to ruin everything for Jaylen" that we heard non-stop when Tatum first got back, here on planet earth I see a player who is playing not only the same way he always has, but is getting even better with the addition of Tatum
A solid 26/6/3 on 11-20 (1-3) and a +13 in his 35 minutes, it should be no surprise that with improved spacing and having another threat like Tatum on the court, Jaylen's shot chart looks like this on most nights
Even if you're a team like TOR that has some size and length on the perimeter, it doesn't really matter. If you allow Jaylen Brown to see one on one coverage, he's getting to his spot. You could even say his paint finishing was kind of dogshit, but wht I care about is the approach. There's no settling or low percentage looks. Everything is aggressive and to the rim, which is usually when Jaylen is at his best.
This is mostly why all that bullshit about the Tatum/Brown fit never made any sense. Every part of Jaylen's awesome season and great approach offensively this year is enchanced by Tatum being on the floor. Why people refused to think through things and understand how it all works was bizarre to me. As if Jaylen Brown would be getting into the paint "less" with Tatum on the floor? As if his life wouldn't be 10000x easier with opposing defenses now having to worry about both of the Jays? Like use your fucking brain for me one time!
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- When it came to the role guys, they all had their moments as well. Payton Pritchard continues to give you great minutes off the bench and is consistently living in the 17-20 point range on good splits
Jordan Walsh is once again making the most of his opportunity in what feels like an audition to be in the playoff rotation
Baylor is rebounding his dick off while also making his open C&S 3s in addition to solid on ball defense, and shit even Derrick White's shooting seems to be back as well (2-3 from deep).
When you combine the Jays looking like the best version of themselves we've ever seen, a leap from Neemy, and then all the role guys playing great, it feels like this team as a whole is rounding into shape at the perfect time. And while none of what we're seeing guarantees playoff execution, it's certainly a position you prefer they be in as we close the season. Everyone thriving in their role, the production getting back to what we're used to seeing, and collectively going belt to ass against whoever they play.
That's Celtics basketball if I've ever seen it.
- Finally the Celts guarded the 3pt line! Only 8-20 for the Raptors which I can live with considering it's about half as many as they've been giving up for the last month. It just goes to show when the Celts get serious about the 3pt line and don't give up 14-20 a game, they can hold teams to around 100 or less defensively.
If in 2025-26 if you are holding your opponent to 100 points, you are going to win a shit ton of games.
It just felt nice to not have to stress about an extremely fake magnet ball for once. My mental health needed that.
The Bad
- It was his first game back to I do think he's allowed to ramp back up slowly, but the Vuc minutes were not exactly what I would call great. A -14 in his 13 minutes, I didn't really like anything about his first game back since breaking his finger. The drop coverage leaves me a little worried, we didn't really get any Tatum/Vuc P&R which was unfortunate, and what I do know is what we saw in this game was in no way better than the minutes Luka Garza has been giving, so this is going to be interesting to monitor over the next few games.
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I think with Vuc your ceiling may be higher, but with Garza I feel like you have a higher floor. Mostly because the Garzilla is extremely consistent, and what he lacks offensively he makes up through sheer effort and will. Vuc doesn't really create the extra possessions in the same way, but he's also a much better passer and defensive rebounder. I just wonder if a game like yesterday was a playoff game, would we have seen Joe go to Garza for stretches instead?
- I did not think it could be possible for Jayson Tatum's whistle to be even worse than it was pre-injury, but what we are seeing now that he's back is beyond disrespectful. This is a player who is averaging 10 drives a game. He takes it strong to the rim as much as any star player in the NBA. Yet time and time again I'm watching this man get fouled at the rim and it's nothing.
His FTA rate has dropped all the way to 23.8% this season, which is the lowest it's been since 2019-20. Last year? 30%. The year before? 34%. I have no idea why Tatum gets the whistle he does, but what I do know is if he got a normal whistle like everyone else, he'd be averaging 30-35 a night.
- I need Mamu on the Celtics next year. I don't know how they do it, but I just need them to do it. I love his game so much and he was someone I wish they could have snagged for the minimum this summer before he took that same contract with the Raptors. He's such a perfect Mazzulla Ball player I can't even stand it.
The Ugly
- If you're looking for areas of concern not just in terms of this matchup in a potential playoff series, but overall for the playoffs, it's the Celts still having issues with ball pressure.
This is actually something we saw the Raptors do to the Celts all the way back in the preseason, and in most of the games we see teams be tough and physical on the perimeter with ball pressure, we see the Celts have issues with ball security.
The Jays themselves had 10 of the 15 TOs, and while a handful of those were bullshit Tatum offensive fouls, the majority of them came from struggling against ball pressure in some way. With Jaylen, it was losing the ball dribbling, which is how the Raptors were able to get out on the break for easy buckets. The only reason they were able to stay in the game was because of points off TOs (20), and this is exactly how teams are going to defend them in the playoffs.
Pritchard is really the only true ball handler, and if there's one way the Celts get themselves into trouble it's dealing with being guarded 94 feet. The Pistons, the Knicks, the Raptors, the Hornets etc, they're all going to use that approach because any smart team should know that if you let the Celts take their time and initiate offense, they are going to pick you apart.
If we're transitioning from more of a guard initiated ffense back to the normal wing-initiated offense, well then the Jays' ability to handle and survive against physical ball pressure is extremely important. It wasn't the best in this game, and it really hasn't been the best against any team that truly defends with elite ball pressure.
It's a little hard to wrap your brain around where the Celtics are right now with 4 games left in their season, especially when you consider this team started 0-3 and was 5-7 midway through November. Since that moment, they've had the 3rd best record in the NBA. They just added an All NBA talent to the mix and suddenly they look to be an even higher level of contender than they were during their title defense season. That, is bananaland stuff.