The Celtics Have Officially Checked Off One Of The Most Important Boxes For Every Potential Champion In All Of NBA History

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Once upon a time, teams like the Heat and the Bucks were real rivals. The Celts used to have real battles with those teams. Of all the teams in the East, those were two matchups that you had to be ready for war whenever you saw them on the schedule.

Now? The Heat and Bucks rivalries are beyond dead. 

Against MIA? A decent 17-3 record over their last 20 games

Against MIL? After last night, they now move to 10-4 since 2022-23.

For the Bucks specifically, in their last 3 meetings against the Celtics, we've seen them lose by 32, 27, and 28.

Given who was on the floor for the Bucks in last night's ass whooping, I don't really put too much stock into what we saw, because that was a G-League roster at best. The Celts were -17.5 favorites heading in and won by 32. As long as they didn't troll, a blowout like we got was the expectation. 

However, that does not mean this win was not significant. Far from it. I would argue it was one of the more significant wins of the entire season. 

How could that be possible? I'll explain.

As anyone who reads this blog should know by now, I put A LOT of stock into championship contenders checking off a series of boxes over the course of 83 games that essentially every champion in NBA history was able to do during their seasons. There are just some things that have a large enough sample size that you can't ignore them. You can try and deny them if you favorite team doesn't hit them, and there are always certain exceptions depending on what you're looking at, but for the most part there are boxes every champion checks.

That, is why last night was significant.

This win brought the Celtics to 52 wins. That is a very important number, because what if I told you over the last 40 years, there is only 1 team that won the title while winning under 52 wins (or the equivalent in a shortened season) and finishing outside of a top 3 seed in their conference? The 1994-95 Rockets. That's it. In all of NBA history, if you have dreams of winning the title, you need to check off 52 wins and at least a top 3 seed. Period. That's not me saying it, that's all of NBA history saying it.

So, why was last night significant?

52 wins, and a top 3 seed (with 5 games to go). Still up 3 in the loss column over NYK so there is still some work to do, but things are trending in the right direction. What matters is that, for now, they hit the 52-win part. That alone is pretty crazy to see, given that this team started 0-3 and was 5-7 midway through November.

Since then? A decent 47-18 record (3rd best in the NBA).

Giphy Images.

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Of all the contender profile benchmarks, the one thing the Celts did not hit was 40/20, which is usually a death sentence for your title hopes, unless you can somehow follow one of the exceptions. I looked at the '94-95 Rockets, who didn't hit it, but added 3rd Team All NBA player in Clyde Drexler at the deadline, who then went on to average 20/7/4 for the Rockets on their way to a title.

I wonder, who might have added an All NBA level talent right around the deadline this year? Oh that's right, the Boston Celtics. And what is Jayson Tatum currently averaging? A cool 21.4/9.9/5.1 in his first 13 games.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, feels familiar, does it not?

When it comes to their SRS being above 4? That box is checked. When it comes to a top 3 seed? That box looks like it's going to be checked. When it comes to hitting at least 52 wins? That box is now checked. 

As it stands now, the Celts are continuing to hit all the key benchmarks, and the one they didn't, they are profiling exactly like a team that was an exception to the 40/20 Rule. 

Again, none of this guarantees that they will win, that's not what this is about. It's just about doing the things that every champion in NBA history has done as you prepare for the playoff run. I'd MUCH rather go into the postseason with those boxes checked as opposed to not, which is all I'm saying. If you want to be considered and treated as a legit title contender, well then you have to do legit title contender shit.

So kicking the shit out of an undermanned and dogshit Bucks team? That's whatever. Checking off another extremely important title benchmark? That very much matters.

Let's begin.

The Good

- I know we are now saying this after every game he plays, but our hands are tied. Jayson Tatum looks INCREDIBLE. Not only does he look like his same old 1st Team All NBA self, but I could also make the case that this version is even better than what we had been watching pre-injury.

For starters, this is the first time in basically his entire career that he doesn't have a fucked up wrist. That's a huge deal. He's come back as an even better rebounder, an even better playmaker, and now that his conditioning is getting better and better, the shooting is starting to come back. Did you know he's shooting around 48% on pull up 3s over his last 7 games, and he's doing it on high volume? Again, this is all after returning just 10 months after his injury!

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Remember all those takes about his efficiency and broken jumper blah blah blah. Good times. Guess who has a 60.9% TS% over his last 4 games? Jayson Tatum. Why is that significant, you may be wondering? 

In his last 3 seasons, Tatum finished with a 60.7%, 60.4% and 58.2% TS%. The year they won the title? That 60.4% number.

There are a lot of reasons Tatum looks like his pre-injury self again, and that's because he is producing like pre-injury Tatum in pretty much every aspect of his game, with his shooting now coming around due to his improved conditioning. 

In terms of touches, Tatum is back to his pre-injury days there as well. He had over 100 touches against the Heat, led the Celts again last night in touches, and we're seeing how devastating that is for opposing defenses given the fact that Tatum is back to destroying you at all 3 levels. Then, when he decides not to shoot, he's carving you up with elite-level playmaking. People forget, this is the best passing wing in the NBA since LeBron James (fact, not opinion). 

Again, none of this is normal

The Celtics are now 11-2 when Jayson Tatum plays, and one of those losses was the Spurs game where Jaylen Brown got tossed after 14 minutes. With Tatum, we've seen the Celts beat OKC/CLE/PHX/ATL/CHA/MIA, all of which are playoff teams. In total, they've won 9 of the last 10 he's suited up for. 

In a year where everything with the Celts seems to end up being the best case scenario, it's only fitting that we're experiencing the best case scenario when it comes to Tatum's return. I watch him play, and I do not see a player who is only 13 games back from an achilles injury. I see 1st Team All NBA Jayson Tatum. I see the same approach on both ends, I see the same production, I see the same mindset. It's all rather insane when you think about it.

- If there is one thing that has been proven this season, it's that if you are a team that does not have legit size in your frontcourt, Neemias Queta is going to dominate you. We see it time and time again, and the Bucks were no different. Tough spot to be in paying Myles Turner $100M only to be severely outplayed by a center making $2M, but that's just what Neemy does when he's facing a weak frontcourt

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Brad said it back in February and it couldn't be more true. The Celtics are not having the season they are having without Neemy taking the leap that he's made. From a 4th string big to a legit starting caliber center the very next year, it's arguably one of the better stories in the entire NBA this season. 

We saw right away how good his chemistry with Tatum is in the P&R, and Neemy has gotten so much better at understanding angles and timing and where he needs to be within the flow of the offense, it's beautiful to watch. The Bucks had ZERO answers for Neemy to open this game, and it's not even like he did anything all that crazy. He got out of his screens quick;y, he kept his hands high and made himself a target, then he finished strong. That's really all he needs to do. The rebounding has been great as of late, and while the playoffs will be a true test for Neemy, considering where we were starting at the beginning of the year? The Neemias Queta Experience has been a homerun.

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How many other teams in the NBA are getting starter quality minutes and production from their centers for league minimum? You normally have to pay $25-30M a year for what Neemy is giving you for $2M. And guess what? He's signed next year for the minimum too! 

- Are people ready to finally admit that Mazzulla Ball works? Forget the most wins and playoff wins since he took over. Forget the title. Forget never having below a top 2 offense in the NBA since he took over. Forget all the all time records they've set. 

Now that we're seeing it be successful with this collection of talent

do you all finally accept defeat?

The Celts had a 141.5 ORTG last night, coming off their 151.5 against the Heat in their previous game. Another 133 points on 56/45% splits with 17 3PM and 33 AST. 

Some of us had seen the vision on Day 1, but it's OK if it has taken you some time to get there. We're just at the point where it's simply undeniable. Joe Mazzulla and his system are the best in not only the NBA, but in the entire sport on any level. 

When the Celts are moving the ball like we've seen the last 2 games (shoutout Tatum!) and the shotmaking is at the level we've seen the last two games, they are the best team in the NBA. I don't know how else to say it, because I've seen this movie before. I know what it looks like and what happens when the Celts play to their ceiling, and it usually ends in a parade. 

- You know who else is playing to their ceiling? Jaylen Brown. Not a bad night when you finish with 26/3/4 in 30 minutes while also going 10-11 from the FT line and ending the night a +27 in your minutes

When it comes to the fit of the Jays, you'll never believe this but it's as flawless as ever. Who could have possibly seen this coming! Oh right, anyone with a working brain. Never forget the fear mongering and bullshit we had to deal with about "fit", "ego", "roles" and all this other shit that could not have been more pathetic when it came to the partnership of Tatum and Brown.

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Their usage? Basically the same it's always been. Their FGA? The same. Their approach? The same. 

The only difference, is now we're pairing a version of Jaylen Brown that has leveled up with a version of 1st Team All NBA Tatum who has also leveled up. Crazy to think that the most successful duo in the NBA since they were formed is successful on the court together! 

What I loved about the Jays in this game was the fact that they didn't play with their food. This was a business like get in and get out situation where they dominated pretty much from the jump, and then got to sit for the entire 4th quarter. That, was growth in my opinion. 

- It sure does feel like Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Derrick White are all starting to lock in offensively at the same time, and as every Celtics fan will tell you, that is a very, very big deal

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One of the big reasons Mazzulla Ball has looked like Vintage Mazzulla Ball is the fact that these guys are back to making bombs. Sam Hauser isn't even touching rim on his jumpers which is his sign that he's truly locked in. Pritchard is letting it fly with zero hesitation from every zone. And Derrick White? Finally we had a game where Derrick White was making teams pay from deep.

These three all thriving in C&S opportunities is the key to everything. It's what makes the Celtics unguardable, because defenses are left with a choice. Either you accept death by the Jays attacking the rim, or you accept death with 40% shooters burying you from deep. As we know, defenses will always choose to sell out to stop the Jays, which means these guys HAVE to hold up their end of the bargain and make those teams pay for sending extra help.

Once teams can't leave the shooters, that's when the Jays get one-on-one coverage, and well, that means death. It doesn't really matter who you are either. Just ask OKC.

- Another great game around the margins, which we all know is the key to winning. Celts won the shot margin, the rebounding battle, the turnover battle, the paints int he paint (56-22!!!!), the fastbreak points battle etc. It was a complete and utter ass kicking.

Which is why you saw a wire to wire win with the lead reaching as high as 35. There were 0 ties and 0 lead changes in this game. Hard to play better than that folks.

- It was also good to see the Celts get back to holding team to around 100 again. I thought their collective defense against the Heat was pretty terrible, as allowing 129 points was simply too many for a team that averages allowing around 105. But holding the Bucks to 101 despite them making 21 3PM was pretty good, and a big part of that was limiting turnovers and dominating the glass, preventing 2nd chance opporunities.

When we get to the playoffs, those two things are arguably the most important factors. Rebounding and ball security can win or lose you a playoff series. We know this, because we've been on both ends of the spectrum with it. 

The Bad

- Having said that, I don't exactly love back to back games allowing 20+ 3PM. This has been something I've been blogging all year, and if you remember the Celts little slide in around Dec/Jan, most of that was due to being awful at defending the 3pt line. I get that part of it is by design and they're playing the percentages, I'm just saying I don't always love that design. Not every team you play is going to be dogshit like the Heat and Bucks. Given we see this approach against good teams as well, it's just something to monitor. What I do know, is allowing 20 3s a night is not usually a recipe for success.

Over their last 15 games, the Celts are 25th in the NBA in opponent 3PM (14.7). The funny part is they're 9th in opponent 3P%. So what gives?

Well, they're 30th in opponent 3PA, allowing 41.5 a game. That, is too many for my liking.

- Not that it's "bad", but it is interesting that Joe has now switched Hugo and Walsh's minutes, which makes me think Joe is getting his playoff rotation set. I don't mind Walsh getting the nod there, as his size and length as well as improved shooting is probably the way to go. Walsh was good again last nightn in his 12 minutes, but it is something I've noticed these last few games. Hugo may have his moments here and there, but if Walsh maintains the level we've seen these last few games, he should be in the playoff rotation.

The Ugly

- OK, let's talk about how everyone sold Tatum in that 3rd quarter to rob him of his back to back triple doubles. Pretty brutal misses here by both Hauser and Pritchard

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and here's the thing. At first, I was mad at Pritchard for missing that buzzer beater, but the more I thought about it, I actually need Tatum to take that shot instead. I know it was for the 10th assist, I get it. But the Basketball Gods clearly showed us that they do not reward hunting for it, especially after such a nasty move to generate that wide open look. While the triple double would have been awesome, we've also been without Tatum daggers for an entire year, so we do need more of those as well. That should have been a Kiss Of Death shot, and the Basketball Gods clearly agree.

There was also some pushback on Jaylen's approach in that 3rd quarter, but I see that as the usual weirdos being weird about Jaylen Brown. It's not like he was missing on his possessions, he scored every time. There were plenty off opportunities for Tatum to get that 10th assist, it just didn't shake out that way. Oh well.

But seriously, next time we see Tatum shake someone like that, I need that to be a 3PA. Go for the kill in that moment, the crowd was waiting for it!

With the playoffs so close, it's hard to prevent your brain from going to dangerous places after seeing how the Celts are playing with Jayson Tatum in the mix. It's better than any of us could have imagined, and now all that's left is getting through these final 5 games healthy, making sure you finish top 3 in the East and then it's go time. Banner 19 is as real a possibility as ever, which feels absolutely insane to say out loud given where we were a year ago.