If The Celtics Keep Fucking Around And Dropping Winnable Games, They Won't Like What They Find Out

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If you look at the last two games the Celtics have played, I think both would fall into the "stinker" category. The difference, is the first one came against a tanking Grizzlies team that had 11 players sit. That's how the Celts were able to flip that switch in the 4th quarter and avoid disaster.

Last night is what it looks like when they play that way against a team with a pulse. Mind you the Wolves didn't have their best player in Anthony Edwards available, but collectively they are what I would call a team with a pulse. What happened? There was no 4th quarter turnaround. In fact, that's mostly where it all fell apart. 

But a lot of the same things we saw against Memphis, we saw again last night. Lazy defense, horrific ball security, poor shooting, very very very poor transition defense, it was essentially a carbon copy of shit basketball at a time when you can't really be playing shit basketball. Not when the Knicks are loading up in their stretch of schedule where they are playing 8 straight teams under .500 and have won 6 straight. Not when you have OKC up next while they have NO. Not when you're at home playing a team missing their best player. Those are games you need to find a way to win.

And let's be honest, those wins against the "top" or "elite" teams simply have not really been there this season, with or without Tatum in the lineup (outside of the Cavs and Lakers)

vs DET: 1-3

vs NYK:1-2 

vs CLE: 3-0

vs OKC: 0-1

vs SA: 0-2

vs: LAL: 2-0

vs DEN: 0-2

vs MIN: 0-2

vs HOU: 1-1

All in all, you're looking at 8-13 against that group of teams, and 5 of those wins are coming from CLE/LAL. So, 3-13 against the rest

Giphy Images.

And while it's true that when you look closer in those games you see a handful of one possession losses which could easily have been a coin flip, they're still losses. And while we all know playoff basketball differs from regular season basketball, what I do know is that if they were, say, 13-3 against that group, we would be talking about it as a positive, so just because they're in fact 3-13 doesn't suddenly make it irrelevant. It all matters, even when you're on the wrong side of things. 

Now 21-18 against teams .500 or better, the Celts have been a tier below some of the other contenders in this category. Pistons are 26-11, OKC is 25-12, Spurs are 28-12. After them, you get the batch of teams that have 16-18 losses (Celtics, Knicks, Lakers, Rockets, Nuggets, Wolves). As we know, once you get to the postseason and the deeper you potentially get, you're dealing with pretty damn good teams. You have to be able to execute in high leverage situations against elite teams. Period.

So when I think about last night's frustrating loss, that's where I start. A complete lack of execution on both ends of the floor against a good team. Another instance where an opponent played harder, faster, and more physical. The Celts were reactionary last night, we never really saw them impose their will outside of a few stretches in the 1st and 3rd quarter. When you play like that against a team with both skill and confidence, you can get your ass beat. 

It's not pretty, but we have a lot to get to. Let's begin.

The Good

- As I've stated, if you're coming here looking for me to give a shit about how Jayson Tatum is shooting the basketball, you came to the wrong place. We're not even 10 games into his return, so I couldn't possibly care about his efficiency at the moment. What I care about, is how he looks on the court and how the team does with him on the court, both of which continue to trend in the right direction.

Let's start with the impact. 

The Celtics have a +15.7 net rating (!!!!!!!) so far this season when Jayson Tatum is on the court so far in his 192 minutes. They own a 120.5 ORTG, and this is with the team shooting just 30.6% from deep while Tatum is on the floor. Their DRTG? A fantastic 104.8.

So, even in this current form, where Tatum is still getting himself into shape and working his way back, not only has his impact been as good as ever, but the team's production with him on the floor is as good as ever. I think people see his shooting struggles and determine that he's playing poorly or that things aren't working.

This is false. If you hear this from someone, it's bullshit and not what's actually happening in Jayson Tatum's minutes. 

Last night, we started to get glimpses of what a Tatum takeover looks like, and boy is it so great to see. After a scoreless first half, the way Tatum came out aggressive in that 3rd quarter was like watching vintage Tatum. Attacking the rim, hitting his pull up 3 against drop coverage, we saw a player's confidence return in ways that we know mean he's feeling like his old self again. To me, that little 4 or 5 minute stretch means more to me than pretty much any other stretch Tatum played last night. I think people forget, this is a process. Nobody should expect a finished product in Game 8. 

Next, how about the rebounding? Another double/double, this now makes 4 in his first 8 games, and had he snagged one more against the Grizzzlies, it'd be 3 straight games of 10+. People understand how important this is right? Especially once we get to the postseason? This is what I mean when I say there is too much of a focus being put on Tatum's shooting. I see a player who is not only making insane impact, he's also been extremely productive in areas that we KNOW are going to be important in a playoff series. I would argue his rebounding (8.9 a game) has been one of the bigger surprises of Tatum's return. 

Conditioning wise, it does feel like Tatum looks a little stuck in mud at times, which makes me wonder if we're about to have a rest day coming up. I'm interested to see how he looks with these next two days off (assuming he plays against OKC), but really the conditioning and the shooting are really the only areas that haven't been really strong since Tatum's return, and I'm someone who believes those things are connected. 

- Outside of what we saw from Tatum in that second half, I'm not even really sure anything else deserves to be in this section. Maybe the Baylor minutes? Maybe this Hugo block?

outside of that, things were mostly pretty gross. Let's move on.

The Bad

- OK, so where would everyone like to start? If it's alright with everyone, I'd like to start here

This is sort of what I was talking about above. All of this is complete bullshit and is what we're going to have to hear and push back against from the media. Mind you, the Celts are 6-2 in games Tatum has played in, and one of those was the Spurs loss that Jaylen got tossed in. This is the type of lazy narrative bullshit that you could see coming a mile away, and the fact that it's already happening after one loss where Tatum wasn't even really the issue is sad. Talking about "divided" and "not running the same stuff" is so laughable I don't even know what to say.

Not running the same stuff? What? Are we watching different games? Is the idea here that before Tatum returned, the Celtics never had an isolation possession? Because last time I checked iso possessions have been a huge part of Payton Pritchard's season. Jaylen has run plenty of iso possessions. So what exactly is "different" about what the Celtics are running with Tatum? Especially now when he's not even really on the ball to the same level he's normally at? It's just lazy analysis created in an attempt to form a narrative, which is pathetic. 

None of what TMac said in that clip is supported by what is actually happening with Tatum on the court, which is so fucking annoying. He won't be the last to do it, so just brace yourself.

- If it feels like the Celts are incapable of making a jumpshot while playing on their own floor, you aren't crazy. Over their last 6 home games (4-2), the Celts rank 28th in FG% at 43.7, and 29th in 3P% at 32.2%. I'll have you know, they're only 10th in 3PA over that span, so it's not like that's all they are taking. They're simply missing every type of shot they take.

Last night, was a perfect example of this

Of their 95 FGA, only 33 of them were 3PA. Did that matter? Nope. As a team, they finished with 35/27% splits, and I'm sorry you aren't beating any team with a pulse being shooting that poorly from pretty much every zone. Look at the paint! This is why those who just scream about 3PA volume and taking more 2s solves everything miss the point. It's not about volume, it's about execution. 

You go up and down the roster, and this was a collective shooting stinker

Jaylen Brown: 9-25 (2-6)

Jayson Tatum: 6-16 (2-7)

Derrick White: 6-15 (1-5)

Payton Pritchard: 4-11 (2-6)

Luka Garza: 2-7 (1-3)

Sam Hauser: 1-4 (0-3)

which is why anyone putting this all on Tatum's return is an absolute moron. This loss was a result of a collective lack of execution from up and down the roster. Period. In basketball, you kind of have to score points in order to win, and scoring points requires guys to make shots, especially when they're either at the rim or wide open looks. Unfortunately, none of that happened.

- Defensively, outside of the 1st quarter when the Wolves couldn't make a shot, I would consider the execution on that end rather poor. The perimeter players provided zero resistance, guys got into the paint at will, and I would say everyone from Jaylen to White to Pritchard wasn't anywhere close to good enough on that end.

Allowing 33, 29, and 26 point quarters over the last three to a team missing their best player and who also couldn't really shoot early is pretty bad, and it certainly didn't help that the Celts own self inflicted wounds is what made things a bit easier for the Wolves.

- Just like we saw against the Grizzlies which gave them life, careless basketball is what helped give the Wolves life. The 10 TOs in the 2nd quarter is what allowed them to come back from being down 15 points, and how about the 4 straight possessions where we saw Jaylen, Derrick, and Tatum all immediately turn the ball over trying to dribble? That was extremely annoying.

It also brings back up an issue that has really existed since the preseason, and something we'll see in the playoffs. This team still struggles with ball pressure. The only one I really trust to dribble against it is Payton Pritchard, but he can't be on the floor at all times. The Jays and DWhite just do not look comfortable when players get into their airspace and are physical at the point of attack, and you bet your ass that's going to be what teams do against the Celts in the playoffs. The Wolves were physical and it worked. When the Celts didn't turn it over, it took them forever to get into their offense which basically cooked the possession. That's something that desperately needs to be figured out, because it's how they're going to be defended moving forward.

- The NBA tracking hasn't come out with last night's touches, but just by watching it I think most would agree that Tatum's frontcourt touches weren't where I think we all would like them to be. Normally, he lives around 75+ touches and around 30 frontcourt touches. My guess is that number was probably closer to 60/22 last night, and while I do think him being off ball is important and can work, I also think it's fair to want him to at least touch the ball at a more frequent basis.

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I'm not saying they need to go full helio-centric basketball or anything at this stage, I'm sure there's a reason for their approach as he ramps up. I'm just saying, there are only so many games left for him to feel comfortable. I will also say, even with Tatum off ball, he can still be better at moving without the rock and finding ways to create those easy looks for himself. Especially as his shot is struggling. 

The Ugly

- Even though the box score says he had 29, I didn't love how Jaylen played in this game. It felt much more like with the entire team being a brick, Jaylen felt he had to do it all himself to stay competitive, and when that happens is when we see him get into trouble. He took accountability for that after the game which was good to see

but against the good physical defenses, that approach is going to cause more harm than good. As the game started to slip it felt like he was a little more forceful than playing within the game, and that only helped things spiral even more. Listen, this is what being a #1 option comes with. When your team struggles, you need to be the one to pull them out. Last night, I didn't get that feeling from Jaylen's minutes.

- Then of course, there was the 4th quarter. With a 1 point lead entering the final frame, it was an opportunity to see how this team would do in a high leverage situation against a good team. The result? One of the worst performances of the entire season, which effectively lost them the game

Things started with the non-Jays lineup which is getting killed by fans, but you have to remember that Tatum is on a mintues restriction and Jaylen played the entire 3rd. Not only that, but it's a lineup that has been VERY good all year, so I wouldn't say it was a "bad" decision to go with it last night, it just had very poor execution. Just because Derrick White was a gigantic brick during those minutes and Garza couldn't make a layup doesn't mean the decision to use the lineup was bad, they just played like shit.

I do think we'll see the team get back to a more normal rotation and staggering of the Jays so one can be on the court at all times once the mintues restriction stuff ends, but there's no denying that the 4th quarter production is where this game turned. I mean look at that shit. The Celts went nearly 6 minutes without a point, all while getting zero stops on the other end. What do we think happens when they do shit like that? They get blown out.

I know it's a crazy concept, but you simply cannot go an entire quarter without scoring while also spending that quarter getting zero stops. I don't care who you play, but especially against a team with a pulse. I know a lot of the focus is on the non-Jays lineup to start the 4th, but things didn't look all that better when they returned either. It was just a brutal time for the entire team to shit their pants, and blow what was yet another very winnable game. Sort of like the Spurs loss if we're being honest when that was a 3 point game with 9 minutes to go.

The funny part is the Celts own the 3rd best 4th quarter offense in the NBA at 117.6. Makes total sense that a team like that would basically never score for an entire quarter. Hilarious bit.

With OKC up next, things are certainly not about to get any easier, and that's why dropping games like last night stings. This is not a time to be dropping winnable games, and I also don't buy the whole "seeding doesn't matter" bullshit now that there's a chance the Celts could fall out of the 2nd seed. That's cope. I don't care what happened in previous playoffs, homecourt is always something you'd rather have than not. Just because the Celts lost to the Knicks with homecourt last year does not mean the Knicks would lose to the Celtics with homecourt this year. If they aren't careful, the Cavs could also start creeping up, and I'll just remind you that only 2 teams in NBA history have ever won the title lower than the 3 seed.

So yes, seeding is important. Now we just have to wait to see how the Celts respond.