RapSheet Bomb: The Patriots are the Only Team Still in the Running to Trade for AJ Brown
When this dropped a couple of weeks ago, it was painfully obvious there's a shared interest between AJ Brown and the Patriots. The Patriots just broke up with their WR1 when they let Stefon Diggs go. Brown is of course, currently spoken for. But he and the Eagles have been on the rocks for a while. So in dating terms, the two parties are still in the "Will they or won't they?" stage. Think Jim Halpert and Pam Beasley at the end of Season 3 as she knew his intentions but hadn't broken up with Roy quite yet.
Now with the free agency tampering period set to begin Monday, we're still waiting to see if Mike Vrabel will interrupt Brown's direct-to-camera interview in the conference room and ask him out to dinner.
And as of right now, the reporting is all consistent in claiming the Patriots are still very much interested in making a trade. With the most notable report coming from someone who'd know, Ian Rapoport:
Which is significant due to the basic principles of economics that go all the way back to Adam Smith. The Supply of AJ Browns equals the Demand for AJ Brown. It's 1-to-1. Meaning the price has to go down. It's not theory, it's science. An immutable law of the marketplace.
And as a Patriots fan, it would have to be. Because by all other accounts, the Eagles are asking an enormous price for a disgruntled receiver who's about to turn 29, is coming off the second least productive season of his career, and who seems to have gotten on their last nerve. But every other report seems to indicate Philly thinks they're dealing from a position of strength on this player:
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None of what I'm about to say should be taken as an indictment of AJ Brown. The second he were to walk into the facility at One Patriots Place, he'd be the best receiver on the roster. He's still a player defensive coordinators have to game plan for. But a 1st rounder, plus a 3rd or possibly even a 2nd, and maybe another player is an outrageous sum to demand of a guy who's coming off exactly as many receiving yards (1,003) as a 26 year old Alec Pierce, who can be had on the open market. That's the second lowest total of his career, to go along with his second lowest YPR of 12.9, and his second lowest passer rating when targeted of 100.1, which was good for 34th among receivers. By way of comparison, Diggs was 113.9 and Pierce was 113.7. Hell, Kayshon Boutte led the NFL with 133.2.
Again, no knock on Brown. He loves Mike Vrabel:
… and would no doubt come here, enjoy his new lease on life and ball out.
But a 1st round pick PLUS, is an exorbitant price to pay. AFC title or no, this is still a roster with holes that need to be filled. That 31st pick doesn't have to be Cole Strange or N'Keal Harry. It can - and should - be a player with immediate impact who'll be under your control for the next five years on a reasonable rookie contract. There are no less than seven Edge defenders expected to go in Round 1. I'm not giving up one of them for the sugar rush of building around yet another wideout who's pushing 30.
We've been going that route for far too long now. Diggs and Parkers and Smith-Schusters and Sanus. Again, I'll take Brown in a heartbeat. But not at the cost of being left with just one draft pick (either 63 or 95) in the Top 100. Especially when no other team is in the bidding.
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Good luck with that asking price, Philly. You're gonna need it.