The Basketball Gods Have Spoken: The Celtics Will Now Need To Take The 1994-95 Houston Rockets Route On Their Quest For Glory

Jamie Schwaberow. Getty Images.

Every NBA season, given that my favorite basketball team is often considered and plays with the expectation of winning an NBA title, pretty much one thing consumes my brain from October through around the end of February. 

The 40/20 Rule.

It's why you'll never hear me say the regular season is meaningless, or that a random game against a bad team in January doesn't mean anything. False. It all matters. Every game, every possession, every dribble. Why?

The 40/20 Rule.

The 2025-26 Celtics started 0-3. They were 5-7 midway through November. Their dream of potentially hitting the 40/20 Rule (40 wins before 20 losses) shouldn't have even been possible. And yet, they pushed things to the brink. All the way to 38-19 before getting their doors blown off against the Nuggets last night. It was always going to be a tall task, they needed a perfect West Coast trip that ended with a tough B2B against a Nuggets team on 2 days rest, and they went 3-1. That's still very very impressive, but it does not change the fact that for the first time in the last handful of seasons, the Celtics will not qualify.

And I get it. Some believe this rule is fugazi. That it doesn't mean anything. That there's no difference between 40-19 and 40-20. Look, that's fine. Everyone is entitled to believe in what they want. I, tend to believe in NBA history. I don't think it's an accident that in most cases, it's only once your team is eliminated from 40/20 that the rule suddenly means nothing. But when you secure it, then it has meaning. That is not how I tend to look at things. It matters if you hit, and it matters if you miss if you consider yourself a team vying for an NBA championship.

Now, as we know, hitting 40/20 does not guarantee winning a title. That's not what the rule suggests. The Celts lost in 2019-20, 2022-23 etc while making the cut. But what it does tell you is that when it comes to the teams who do win the title, 91% of them have made the cut. Just look at some of the recent Finals we had that came via 82 game seasons (what I use for the rule):

- In OKC/IND, those teams looked even right? Yet what did we see happen? SGA's crazy close in that 4th quarter in IND. Game 7. In the end, OKC hit the mark and the Pacers didn't, and the 40/20 team won

- In BOS/DAL, all the talk was about how Kyrie/Luka were this unstoppable force. That the Celtics wouldn't know what to do facing that type of team. In the end, BOS hit the mark and the Mavs didn't, and the 40/20 team won (convincingly)

- In DEN/MIA, the Heat were on a magical postseason run. Took out the Bucks, took out the Celtics, they were NOT the same team in the playoffs we saw all year. In the end, DEN hit the mark and the Heat didn't, and the 40/20 team won.

- In BOS/GS, the Celtics were in the midst of one of the greatest turnarounds in NBA history. Their defense was historic. In the end, GS hit the mark and the Celtics didn't, and the 40/20 team won

- In TOR/GS, both teams hit the mark, so obviously the champion did too.

- In GS/CLE, even with LeBron James, it did not matter. In the end, GS hit the mark and the Cavs didn't, and the 40/20 team won

I think you get the idea.

Of course, every rule has exceptions. The 40/20 rule has 4:

1. 2021 Bucks (shortened season, so technically I don't really count it)

2. 2006 Heat (they had Shaq)

3. 2004 Pistons (historic all time defense)

4. 1995 Rockets (traded for Clyde Drexler at the deadline)

So basically, for the 40/20 Rule to be broken, you need something EXTREMELY UNIQUE to happen. Maybe it's a shortened season, maybe it's having Shaq, maybe it's being one of the greatest defenses we've ever seen, or maybe it's adding an elite player at the deadline.

In all of NBA history, that's it. That's what it has taken to disprove the 40/20 Rule, which is why I never really understand the pushback against it. 40/44 Champs is pretty telling, so really that feels more like cope than anything else. 

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The 2025-26 Celtics find themselves in a situation that you could consider to be an extremely unique circumstance. Given their best player has played 0 seconds this season, that's a bit of a differentiator compared to other teams this year that did not make the cut. And considering this version got to 38-19, it's not wild to think had Tatum been healthy, this is another year of cruising to that mark. With all signs pointing to a Tatum return, that changes the dynamic to some degree.

Which is why there is reason for optimism despite missing the mark. If you need something extremely rare to break the rule, I would say adding JAYSON TATUM to the mix qualifies. It's actually a very similar path to the 1994-1995 Rockets. They had previously won the title (sound familiar), did not hit 40/20 but added one of the best players in NBA history at the deadline in Clyde Drexler, who made 3rd Team All NBA that year. He then played a big role in their playoff run, which resulted in the title.

To me, the 2025-26 Celtics fit that mold. A recent former champion, a team that did not hit 40/20, but a team that is potentially adding a massive massive massive piece for the stretch run/playoffs in Jayson Tatum.

Is that cope? Yes, to some degree. But there haven't been a lot of situations like the 2025-26 Celtics in NBA history where they are even in the 40/20 conversation without their best player, and then get to add said player the same season. This isn't a case of they had the player all year active, and he just missed some time during the season. They've had 0 seconds of Tatum play. The closest situation to that in my opinion, is that 1994-95 Rockets team, which ended up being one of the four exceptions to the rule.

It's also important to remember that there are 2 other very important benchmarks when it comes to this stuff. The first being a top 3 seed. Only 2 teams have ever won an NBA title while being lower than a top 3 seed. History tells us that you also need an SRS of +4.0 or higher (SRS combines point differential and strength of schedule). Between the 3, nearly every single champion has checked at least 2 of those 3 boxes. So where do the Celts measure up in those areas?

Celts seed? Top 2

Celts SRS? +6.20

Those boxes are checked. This is why I believe they have a shot at being an exception to the rule. They fit the mold, they have the profile, and they have the one trump card on the horizon that historically overcame missing out on 40/20. 

It's going to be fascinating to watch it all unfold. Per NBA history, barring something historic, the 40/20 Rule tells us the 2025-26 champion will most likely be one of these three teams

Will that hold true, or will we get the 5th exception to the rule? I can't wait to find out.

Alright, let's begin

The Good

- If we're being honest, there really wasn't all that much good to take away from this game. Nearly the entire roster played like complete ass. But one thing I did walk away impressed with was the play of Neemias Queta. Going up against the BITW in Nikola Jokic, I felt like Neemy held his own as best as any opposing center possibly could. 

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We saw some individual stops on Jokic which were sweet. We saw some little baby hooks over Jokic that basically told my brain Neemy is turning into Neem The Dream. If the question with Queta for the future is can he hang with the best of the best at his position, I walked away from last night feeling good about Neemy being the center of the future. He's not perfect, but he's growing. 

- Outside of that? Mostly gross. Derrick's first half was awesome so that was cool, but let's just move on

The Bad

- One thing that always matters a little more to me is how the Celts look against the best of the best. Even though we all understand this version of the team is different with Tatum, how they play against contending teams matters to me.

If there's an area of concern with this group, this might be where I start. This season, the Celts are 11-12 against the top 6 from each conference. The higher you go up the standings, the worse their record is. If you look at teams like DET/NYK/CLE/SA/DEN/HOU etc, there are only a handful of wins in there. So even knowing things will look MUCH different with Tatum in the mix, I don't think that's something we can ignore.

Last night was a great example of this. If there's one thing this ass whooping showed, it's the limitations this team can have when facing a team that knows what the hell they're doing defensively. We saw the Nuggets be great at fighting through screens, we saw them play with physicality and elite ball pressure. We saw them dig in on drives to take away the paint. That was a great example of playoff caliber defensive execution, and even accepting the B2B context, there's no denying the Celts struggled with it.

This is why it's beyond stupid to suggest this team doesn't need Tatum to be Tatum to make a deep run. If you've found yourself thinking that at one point or another. Stop. That is wrong. If you hear that mentioned on TV, don't listen to it. It is wrong.

The good news is there's reason for optimism with Tatum in the mix against these high caliber defenses. Despite last night's struggles, the Celtics do own the 2nd best offense while facing top 10 defenses this season. The point is more we were shown the ways playoff defenses will attack the Celtics and how their limitations may become problematic in a playoff setting.

Remember, the majority of this roster does not have proven playoff experience. Rotation players will be playing under that level of pressure for the first time. When you add that pressure with a team that can defend at a high level, it can be a formula for trouble.

- In the Suns win, this was my take on Vuc's night

 I don't really know what to make of Vuc's night. Was it awful? No. Was it good? Meh. I do continue to worry a little bit about whether his shooting is ready for the bright lights of the playoffs for a team with title expectations, and maybe this is just me having Evan Fournier PTSD, but I am weary of a situation where we are seeing him smoke open 3s and open baby hooks around the rim. I don't know why, I know he's good at both of those things, but some of these misses we see make me nervous.

That's probably a me problem, which I admit, but just put a pin in it. The passing is great, the defense has been fine, but the scoring outside of those few possessions where he has deep positioning has left a little bit more to be desired. 

Unfortunately, last night made things even worse. It was sort of the situation I was trying to describe in that post. A brutal 1-7 showing, Vuc's minutes were a disaster. Smoking open looks from deep, smoking open 2s, not really rebounding, it was all the fears showing up at once.

I keep pointing back to the Evan Fournier piece. This is my fear. In this system and on this team, that role requires you to make shots. Period. As of late, Vuc hasn't been hitting shit. The same is VERY small, so it would be foolish to form any sort of concrete conclusion, but it is something to put a pin in. Getting absolutely nothing from Vuc was brutal, and to make matters worse, his struggles coming at the end of that 3rd quarter are what really helped spark the entire Nuggets run.

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Call it B2B legs for him if you want, but that feels like a cop out considering he's coming off the bench and didn't really play heavy mintues against the Suns. He was just flat out bad at a time when the Celts needed him to give solid minutes.

- I would say the same thing for Payton Pritchard. A no show at the worst possible time. I can handle the misses, that happens. What I can't handle with Payton is his not being aggressive. Whenever he plays passively, the Celts tend to struggle. Was that the impact of playing all 12 minutes in the 4th against the Suns? Eh. To me, this was more about the Nuggets taking him away than anything else. 

Taking only 6 FGA is unacceptable, especially since his role has shifted from a starting guard who needs to worry about facilitating to a scoring guard off the bench who needs to produce a scoring punch. Call me crazy, but to score in basketball, you probably have to shoot the ball.

How many possessions did we see him attack the paint only to never even look at the rim? Where was the pull up? Where was the paint game we saw against the Lakers? It was nowhere to be found, that's where. 

Given the shooting struggles the entire roster was experiencing, being passive is the worst thing you can do when you are one of the best shooters on the team. You're only helping the Nuggets when you do that. 

- 0 points in the 2nd half for Derrick White after 18 in the first. Not great!

- If it felt like we were watching the early season Celtics, it's because we kind of were. Sloppy with the ball early, and an inability to rebound that we haven't seen since the Celtics were 0-3. Possession after possession of an inability to grab a rebound, all of which led to the Nuggets ending that possession in a 3PM. They finished with 14 OREB and 23 2nd chance points. Sound familiar? 

The Celts weren't able to capitalize on the Nuggets poor shooting start because they kept giving up extra possessions with their turnovers and OREB. Losing the shot margin is how you blow that type of opportunity, and the Celts were playing catch up in terms of shot margin all game. The Nuggets only scored 103 points on 41/34% splits. It's not like they were a wagon. But what they did do was dominate the margins. It was honestly very Celts like.

- Pretty tough to win in a tough place to play on short rest when you also lose the bench points battle 42-17. That's pretty bad. It didn't matter who came in, nobody had any buckets in them. Ron Harper Jr struggled early missing every 3 he took, Payton/Vuc followed that up by being complete zeros offensively, and you're just not going to win on the road against a good team when you get nothing from your bench. That's not a Celtics thing, that's an any team in the NBA thing. Especially when your top options are also struggling.

The Ugly

- Speaking of stars struggling, if there's one player who does not get the B2B excuse, it's Jaylen. I talk a lot about stepping up into the role of the #1 and what that often requires. Well, one of those things are when you're team is on a B2B against a good team and you sat the game before, then you need to carry. You need to say 

"Don't worry guys, I have the juice in my legs, I'll backpack things"

That's what a #1 role requires in that spot, and unfortunately this was a game in which Jaylen didn't meet it. A 7-21 showing is nowhere close to good enough. High TOs, even if they were through offensive fouls, are still wasted possessions. Not really playing with full effort and jogging back in transition at times, no bueno.

If you want to play the B2B stuff, I'm with you. The schedule boned 'em. But that is not the case with Jaylen's performance. He was just flat out bad from basically every zone

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- Easily one of the worst second halfs you'll ever see this team play

Giphy Images.

From 1:46 of the 3rd quarter through when Joe pulled the starters with around 5ish minutes left, the Celtics were 1-15 from the floor. 1-15! No shit the Nuggets immediately went on a 15-0 run in 3 mintues to blow the game open. It didn't matter where the Celts shot from, nothing dropped

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Open 3s, open looks in the paint, open looks from midrange, open looks at the rim. All misses. So bad you kind of have to be impressed if we're being honest. Who goes 1-15? Only this team, of course.

So in the end, the quest for 40/20 fell just short. Brutal, but not the end of the world. Nothing wrong with being the 1994-95 Rockets, and at the end of the day a 3-1 West Coast trip is still great. Plus, we're probably a week away from Jayson Tatum returning, which rules. So while it's a bummer they didn't make the cutoff, it's still full steam ahead.