The Patriots Got a Playoff Matchup Nobody Wanted, but it's the Matchup We Need
Anyone with an emotional connection to the Patriots watching that Texans at Steelers game last night had to realize by around the beginning of the 4th quarter that the easiest path toward a seventh Super Bowl banner would be the Steelers.
Just from the standpoint of institutional memory, facing them in the playoffs always worked out. At least from that 1997 Wild Card game where the Patriots were down 7-6 and driving for the go ahead score until Drew Bledsoe got strip sacked by some obscure nobody languishing on Dick Lebeau's bench by the name of Mike Vrabel. Ever since that game, the Steelers have been a welcome opponent in January. Even at the height of their power in the mid-2000s, they always served at the Patriots Get-Right team. Twice the Pats beat them at Pittsburgh in AFC championship games, including in 2004 when they'd gone 15-1. In all they've gone 3-0 against the Steelers in the playoffs this century, but an average score of 34-20.
More to the point though, this Steelers team wasn't even close to those Steelers teams. This one was Egyptian Cotton soft, and imploded in the 4th quarter in the onslaught of an elite defense. So now Houston stands between the Patriots and their first trip to the conference title game in eight years. As Marcus Aurelius put it, "The obstacle in the path becomes the path." And that obstacle is this:
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Simply put, the Texans defense finished:
--2nd in points allowed at 17.4 per game
--1st in yards allowed, at 277.2 per game
--1st in 1st downs allowed, with 276
--1st in percentage of drives that allowed points, at 27.6%
--4th in rushing yards with 1,455
--6th in yards per play, with 4.8
--3rd in net passing yards allowed, at 5.3 per play
--3rd in turnovers with 29
--4th in INTs with 19
--3rd in passer rating against, at 76.2
--3rd in Pro Football Focus defensive grade, at 84.3
Interestingly enough, they're not an elite pass rush team, finishing out of the Top 10 in percentages of pressures, hurries, and QB hits. But they're the 5th lowest blitzing team in the league, at just 18.9%. Meaning the pressure they do generate is mostly coming from winning 1-on-1 matchups with the only teammates in the league to have 12+ sacks each, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Each of whom are Top 6 in football at every pass rushing metric, including total pressures, hurries and win %.
The point being, those numbers do not lie. This is the Patriots offense facing its toughest challenge of the season. By far. The closest comp we have on their schedule is the Bills, who finished 4th in points allowed. And the two teams split the season series. (So far; stay tuned on that.)
And to all this we should all have but one reaction:
Giphy Images.I get it. A win is a win. The easiest road possible to the Super Bowl is still a road to the Super Bowl. No one cares who you beat. If the Rams win it all, their trophy will look just like the the previous 59 do, no matter if they did beat an 8-9 team along the way. Survive and advance, and all that.
But this is more. As Julian Edelman has put it, “You make your money in the regular season. You make your name in the postseason."
This is about history. It's about legacy. It's about Drake Maye, his offensive line, his skill guys, and Josh McDaniels making their mark on the world. It's shutting up all the scoffing, dismissive, pearl-clutching skeptics in the football glitterati who've suddenly become obsessed with "strength of schedule" for the first time in their lives. It's about proving wrong all the partisan, anti-New England zealots calling this team a fraud that feasted on a soft schedule.
More than that, it's about proving the Dynasty is still alive. That it might have laid dormant for a few years. And all the personnel may have changed. But if they can overcome an elite defense, they'll not only demonstrate that they're for real, they'll continue a proud tradition in Foxboro of beating up on the best defenses in the league.
In fact, that was a hallmark of the Belichick-Brady era. Consider the following times they faced, and defeated, Top 5 NFL defenses in the postseason:
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--2001 AFCCG. Steelers. No. 1 in yards, No. 3 in points. Result: W 24-17
--2001 Super Bowl. Rams. No. 3 in yards. Result: W 20-17
--2004 AFCCG. Steelers. No. 1 in points, No. 1 in yards. Result: W 41-27
--2007 AFCCG. Chargers. No. 5 in points. Result: W 21-12.
--2009 Wild card. Ravens. No. 3 in point, No. 3 in yards. Result: L 33-14
--2011 AFCCG. Ravens. No. 3 in points, No. 3 in yards: Result: W 23-20
--2014 Super Bowl. Seahawks. No. 1 in points, No. 1 in yards. Result: W 28-24
--2015 Divisional round. Chiefs. No. 3 in points. Result: W 27-20
--2017 AFCCG. Jaguars. No. 2 in points, No. 2 in yards. Result: W 24-20
--2017 Super Bowl. Eagles. No. 4 in yards. Result: L 41-33
Total: 10 games, 8-2 record, 25.2 average points.
The ouliers in these results would be the 2009, that Belichick was so obviously frustrated with that NFL Films famously captured him telling Brady, "I just can't get these guys to do what I need them to." And the Super Bowl against the Eagles where Brady threw for 505 yards but the defense couldn't make a stop.
Of course I'm not arguing the fallacy that since it happened in the past, it will happen again. That would be ridiculous. If you've claiming otherwise, you're intentionally missing the point.
What I am saying is that these games, overcoming the best the league had to throw at them, is what made the Dynasty a Dynasty. In order for this edition of the Patriots to get to where Mike Vrabel has said he wants to lead them, you need to win a game like this. There is simply no other way.
It's perfectly normal to watch what DeMeco Ryans' defense did to Aaron Rodgers and worry they'll do likewise to Drake Maye.
But opportunities like this are what made this franchise the gold standard of excellence in the 21st century. And this beats the hell out of combing through the mock drafts in January.
So yeah, bring it on. We all we got. We all we need. Now kick the damned ball off already.