The Celtics May Be Back, But Unfortunately That Also Includes The Return Of Frustrating Losses Due To Playing Like Complete Shit

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You may remember it wasn't too long ago (5 days) that the Celts were on their long West Coast trip and went into LA to face the hottest team in the NBA (Clippers) for their final game. The last game of a long road trip is always the toughest, and at that time the Clippers were riding a 6 game winning streak, kicking the shit out of everything in their path. The Celts made 24 3PM (24-51), pulled out the great win to cap off an awesome trip.

Last night, the Denver Nuggets came into Boston for the final game of their long East Coast trip to play a Celtics team that had the longest winning streak in the NBA (4). They've been one of the hottest teams in the NBA for weeks now, winning 8 of their last 9, kicking the shit out of everything in their path. So what happened? The Nuggets made 20 3PM (20-44), and pulled out the great win to cap off an awesome trip.

Sound familiar?

Without Nikola Jokic, it's not as if the Nuggets are bad. Far from it. The rest of their roster was active and played, so it's a bit of a weird place to be coming off a loss like this. I find it very annoying, mostly because the Celtics played like shit. This is a team that we saw lose to the Nets during this trip, but then also beat the Raptors and Sixers. I wouldn't put this loss in the same category of horrific home losses like the Jazz or Nets games, but it was certainly a game you expect the Celts to win, given the whole no Jokic/last game of a long road trip thing. Especially with how well the Celts have been playing.

But this is the beauty of the NBA. 

The same way they had their surprise win in LA, last night was a reminder that you too can find yourself on the wrong end of one of those games if you don't play to a winning standard. In this league, any team can get got on any given night. Shit, we just saw the Hornets blow out the Thunder at home by 30! 

If anything, this loss was a reminder of just how thin the margin for error still is for this Celtics team. Especially when you're playing good teams, and even more so when you're in tightly contested games down the stretch. Without Jayson Tatum, there is no room for error. While there have been plenty of times through their first 36 games that we've seen the Celts come through in those moments, last night was the first time in a long time they shit their pants. It happens from time to time over the course of 82 games, but that doesn't mean you have to like it.

This was now the 3rd loss at home of the season by 4 points or less. Considering those losses are to the Sixers by 1, the Jazz by 2, and Jokic-less Nuggets by 4, I find that to be pretty annoying. On the season, the Celts are now 8-10 in clutch time games, having lost 3 of their last 5. That's not all that great, and honestly is a big part of the reason why the Celts aren't comfortably in the 2 seed and even closer to the top spot and are instead tied in the loss column with the Knicks. 

I suppose you could say the Celts were due for a stinker, and I see last night as a game in which a lot of the flaws that we saw in their recent wins finally bit them in the ass. The hope is that this serves as a wake up call of sorts in a variety of areas, because if not, then these types of losses will continue to pile up.

With that said, let's begin.

The Good

- While there was a whole lot of gross basketball being played in this loss, that was not the case when it comes to Anfernee Simons, who continues to play some of the best basketball of his season. Whatever helped flip the switch for Simons has made all the difference in the world, because we're watching a completely different player right now

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15/4/2 in 25 minutes off the bench on 6-9 shooting (3-4), we're seeing Simons now thrive in his new role. I think part of that is probably feeling more comfortable with his new team and adjusting to life as a Celtic, but I also think an even bigger part of it is how Joe Mazzulla has switched things up in terms of how Simons is being used. The Celtics have done a great job at maximizing his strengths and putting him in spots to succeed.

We've moved away from the dribble the clock out iso/P&R offense that Simons struggled with to start the year, and instead have made him a C&S demon. His C&S production was great right from the jump, and now when we see him come into a game it's like he not only knows his role, but he also is now not trying to do too much. It sort of felt early in the year that whenever Simons came in, he wanted to prove to Celtics fans that he was this dynamic scorer and could be the same guy he was in POR. It felt like he was pressing while trying to carve out a spot in the rotation.

But now that things have been adjusted and he's completely bought into his role, look at the difference. Look at what we're seeing defensively now on a nightly basis. Effort, energy, a commitment to playing hard on every possession. That's how you earn Joe's trust. Then on the other end, he's shooting the absolute shit out of the ball because the quality of his looks are now so much better. Gone are the low percentage iso possessions in favor of off ball screen C&S 3s. It's made all the difference in the world.

And in turn, continues to intrigue me. With each passing game, I continue to feel like this is a player and a skillset that I would like to see play with Jayson Tatum. In the playoffs, you have to be able to score. We all remember the 2022 Finals. If you're telling me Simons' defense can be passable and we get this level of offensive production? That's a player I think everyone should want to keep around.

- I know this may sound crazy, but I don't know how else to say it. Luka Garza is legitimately good now. And not only is he good, but he's become EXTREMELY IMPACTFUL in his minutes, which given where we were just a few months ago, is pretty insane

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I know he can look a little goofy while sprinting like hell up and down the floor. I know it's a bit confusing how a 7fter has virtually zero rim protection, but we're at the point now where this version of Garza is starting to feel real. What I do know is he's going to be an absolute menace on the offensive glass to the point where he may be the best offensinve rebounding big the Celts have had in years. The screens he sets are incredible and play a huge role in the Celts best players getting downhill. His 3pt shooting will probably come back down to earth a little bit, but it's still a shot I have no problem with him taking which rules. And there's just something about watching a player that you can tell will sacrifice it all just to win that I have no choice but to respect. 

Playing hard is a skill, and I'd argue nobody on the roster plays harder per second than Luka Garza. It's refreshing as hell and leaves you no choice but to root for the guy. The fact that he's actually turning into a playable rotation big is undeniable, and both he and Simons are great examples of players who buy into their role and then play hard as hell. When you do that, good things happen.

- And you know what? Shoutout Neemias Queta too. You go out and grab 20 rebounds (10 defensive, 10 offensive) and you will find yourself in this section. 

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Admit it, you read that tweet and said "what the fuck!??!?!" to yourself. Wilt never did this? Rodman never did this? Russell never did this? Wild.

It's actually annoying as hell that the Celts won the rebounding battle 53-39 and lost this game. That's not how it's supposed to work! 

In terms of Queta, I'm not sure what else people need to see before they realize he's developed into a quality starting center. He's good enough to be the starting center on the next iteration of this roster, and while he's not perfect, the development we've seen these last few years is undeniable. Look at this guy!

In a game where the Nuggets had no centers, both of the Celtics centers were dominant. That was a pleasant surprise and exactly what should have happened. If we're cutting up the blame pie for this loss, Simons, Garza, and Neemy don't deserve much.

The Bad

- OK, where do we begin. I'd like to start with something that I've been pretty vocal about in the blog, because for my money it's one of the most glaring issues this team has through 36 games.

The Celtics 3P defense is beyond dogshit. Period. 

First, let's just run through some numbers. 

On the season, they rank 24th in opponent 3PM and 25th in opponent 3P%. That's for the entire season, which clearly stinks. Where things really started to get out of hand began with the December 22nd game against the Pacers. Since that game (8 games), this is what we're seeing when it comes to the Celtics 3P defense.

In terms of 3PM allowed, they've been 28th in the NBA, averaging 16.0 opponent 3PA a game. They are 29th in opponent 3PA a game, with 42. They are 26th in the NBA in opponent 3P%, at 37.5.

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So just add that up. The Celtics are giving up the 3rd most makes, the 2nd most attempts, and the 5th best 3P% during this stretch. And sure, they're 6-2 over those 8 games, but that is not sustainable defense. In the NBA, you can't be allowing your opponents to make 16-20 3s every night and think you're going to win at an elite pace. 

vs DEN: 20 3PM

vs CHI: 16 3PM

vs LAC: 15 3PM

vs SAC: 12 3PM

vs UTA: 16 3PM

vs POR: 18 3PM

vs IND: 18 3PM

vs IND: 13 3PM

Giphy Images.

And here's the thing. The problem isn't just the 3PM volume. It's the fact that every game we're seeing the Celtics do nothing but leave teams WIDE THE FUCK OPEN all night. Not just the bad shooters, all the shooters. Last night, the Nuggets took 44 3PA, and of those 44, a total of 37 were open or wide open. The Nuggets shot 60% (12-20) on wide open 3s and 35% (6-17) on open looks. Sorry, that's very bad perimeter defense!

There was no running anyone off the 3pt line, the Celts continued to leave corner shooters wide open, and last night is what it looks like when your dogshit 3pt defense finally bites you in the ass. You want to screw around against the Bulls or Jazz? You can still win those games. But against a good team? This is what happens. It's no surprise that the 2nd highest total allowed during this stretch was the loss to the Blazers. 

In this loss, the Celts traded 2s for 3s, got killed in the 3P volume department and look what happened. Perhaps now people will really understand why 3pt shooting matters. When your opponent is hot like this and you are showing no signs of stopping it defensively, you can't trade those 3s for 2s. You also have to try and stay attached in terms fo the 3pt volume, yet only 38 of the Celtics 95 FGA were 3PA. Essentially, they got Mazzulla Ball'd (44 of DEN's 87 FGA were 3PA).

- As we know, this team goes as the guards go, and last night I would say the Payton/Derrick duo was not at all that great. A combined 12-32 (4-18) from the floor, it's just really hard for the Celts to beat good teams if both of those guys are going to lay eggs when it comes to shotmaking.

In wins, Derrick White has a TS% of 58.2% and Pritchard sits at 60.1%.

In losses, Derrick White has a TS% of 45.1% and Pritchard sits at 49.8%

That is a pretty drastic difference, but it also tracks. Think of pretty much every loss we've seen so far, and usually the shooting struggles of both White and Pritchard are at the center of it. Last night? White had a 44.7% TS% and Pritchard 54.3%. Not good enough. Especially when you're playing a team that's hitting everything.

- Perhaps Jaylen had a point!

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That's pretty insane considering what we're seeing happen with all the other stars around the NBA when it comes to their whistle, especially when that player is this aggressive at attacking the rim. Oh well. 

- After building the lead to 9 in the 3rd quarter, that should be the time when you step on the gas and finish the game. With the Nuggets tired from their trip, that was the Celtics' window.

So what did they do? They immediately gave up 3 straight 3PMs to let the Nuggets steal back momentum and gain new found life. That's exactly how you get yourself into trouble and into high leverage situations down the stretch, which are a coin flip.

That little run right there in my opinion, was the first stretch where the game started to turn. You had a chance to step on their throats, and instead you allowed the exact opposite to happen. I'd say 99 times out of 100, that comes back to bite you in the ass.

- Since it was pretty clear Hauser didn't have it in this game, I was a little surprised to see we didn't get more Walsh. His shooting is just as good right now, and defensively/rebounding wise he's a much better option. Only 13 minutes for Walsh in this game compared to Hauser's 29, and he finished just 2-6 from deep and only grabbed 2 rebounds. I'm almost wondering if it's time to swap them again when it comes to who starts at the 4. 

The Ugly

- Yes, he finished with 33/7/4, but for my money this was one of Jaylen's worst overall performances of the season. He finished 14-29 (4-6) from the floor which while efficiency wise isn't all that bad, approach wise was pretty tough. Add in his 7 TOs, and this performance felt more like Jaylen forcing the issue than letting the game come to him.

Did they need his scoring with Pritchard/Derrick being bricks? Yeah, so in some ways you can understand that shot volume, even if 29 is a bit crazy. My issue was more this felt like the version of Jaylen who just put his head down and attacked without a plan, as opposed to the version we've been seeing all year that takes his time, gets to his spots and most importantly, keeps his eyes and head up once the defense collapses.

I also care way more about the 7 TOs than I do the 29 FGA, and it goes without saying that's way too many. The Celts allowed 15 points off their TOs which in a game they lost by 4, feels pretty significant. Considering Jaylen had half of their total by himself (7 of the 14), it starts with him. He can go 14-29 (4-6) all he wants, but he cannot have 7 TOs, most of which led to fastbreak points, often times were dagger momentum 3s. I thought Payton summed it up perfectly

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- Also, to finish with 45/39% splits but only 16 AST as a team is not a great approach either. Way too much iso and not enough ball movement. This is what ultimately got them into trouble in the 4th quarter, as the Celts really strugged to beat their man off the dribble and create advantages and rotations to help open up clean looks. Everything was slow, the ball didn't move, and as a result, the shot quality was pretty poor in the biggest stretch of the game.

- Which of course, is the 4th quarter. Now the Celts have been one of the best 4th quarter teams in the entire NBA since December 19th, so you could say they were due for a stinker of a quarter. That's exactly what this was

A 5 minute stretch from the 7 minute mark to the 2 minute mark where the Nuggets went 17-3, pretty much decided this game. As you can see above, not only did the Celtics turn the ball over 5 times which is very bad, but they also couldn't make a shot or get a stop the entire quarter. Call me crazy, but that is not a winning formula.

It also points to another glaring issue that this team needs to figure out, which is their clutch time defense. Those lack of stops? They shouldn't surprise you. Why? Because on the season, the Celts own the 28th ranked clutch time defense. They can't stop shit in the high leverage situations. They can't defend late and they can't rebound late. That is how you end up 8-10 in the clutch. 

Given how they've been playing recently, I guess this version of the Celts is just adopting the 2024 team's approach of winning 4 of every 5. That's OK with me. While another 5 game winning streak would have been nice, sometimes things just don't work out the way you want. I say take this loss on the chin and then be ready for TOR/SA, two games that won't be easy to close out this homestand. This team hasn't let things snowball all year, so I expect them to immediately respond like they always do.