The Keys To Beating The Patriots This Weekend
Nothing could sum it up better. The Patriots, who have ripped the heart out of every Chargers team I loved growing up, are matched up with my sweet bolts yet again.
2006 Divisional round. Chargers with a 21-13 lead. Marlon McCree intercepts the ball with 6 min remaining only to have it stripped. Patriots score, 2PC. Force a punt then get a FG. Nate Kaeding missing a 54-yarder that would have tied it.
2007 AFC Championship. Rivers on a torn ACL with no Tomlinson or Gates. They actually put up a fight but go down. Winner played the Giants which probably represents their best chance at a SB in my lifetime.
2018 divisional round. The 12-win Chargers go to Baltimore and beat rookie Lamar. I sit next to Dave and Feits on a live stream and watch while Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead run rampant in a 41-point ass kicking.
It has never gone our way. But the big difference is that slender-faced god Tom Brady is gone and I don't think any team can recreate him. So let me tell you what I think it's going to take for the Chargers to actually win this game.
Allow me to address something first. I've seen a lot of Patriots fans get mad that Charger fans "want" them as an opponent. To be VERY clear, it is all relative. The Chargers biggest weakness is their offensive line. So, by default, they should prefer to play whichever team has the "worst" pass rush. Again, relative since the Patriots' pass rush is still good. But The Broncos, Steelers, and Texans are all top-10 in sacks. The Jags already curb stomped this unit a few months ago. The Patriots, by comparison, are 24th in pressure% and 26th in sacks. However this is obviously still a very good unit that doesn't give up points and is actually just behind the Chargers in expected points added.
What I would want is for this to be a relatively equal duel between Herbert and Maye. I like Maye a lot. He had comps to Herbert coming out of college and what he had to go through last year with Mayo reminds me a lot of what Herbert went through with Lynn and Staley. He's emerged victorious thanks to some grit and a good head coach. And, in my book, he should obviously win MVP. If you want to make an argument that the MVP should mean something else or that its graded wrong, whatever. That is simply a different argument. The fact is that the MVP goes to the QB with the best stats among the top seeds. That is undeniably Drake Maye.
Anyway, back to the points:
1. The offensive line needs to hold. Justin Herbert has been hit 129 times this year, more than any QB in the NFL. The second most by any QB since 2000. He needs to be protected and that's easier said than done when you consider that this is the worst OL unit in the NFL...
A big question will be the lineup. If Salyer is healthy enough to start at LT, it will be huge. If the newly signed Ben Cleveland can start in place of the dogshit FA bust Mekhi Becton, that would also be potentially good. Cleveland fizzled out in Baltimore BUT he was drafted by FO that included Joe Hortiz and was better by most every metric in the Greg Roman scheme. And, again, pretty much anything is better than Becton at this point.
Now, when I say they need to hold, it doesn't just mean "suddenly become competent football players". Greg Roman needs to be inventive in his play calling to help take the pressure off them and, by extension, keep Herbert alive.
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2. No empty trips to the red zone. The Patriots have one of the worst red zone defenses in the league (take this with a grain of salt as they only allow a score on 32% of opp drives, 4th best in the league). The Chargers have one of the worst red zone offenses thanks to this turbodogshit OL. Kimani Vidal and Omarion Hampton have an average of 2.3 YPC on 47 RZ rushing attempts with a whopping 5 total touchdowns. That is BLEAK stuff. Break out whatever, in-case-of-emergency play calls are available to make something happen.
3. Really study what type of QB Drake Maye is. Jesse Minter is one of the best DCs in football. His calling card is the ability to disguise intention, which has tripped up a lot of good, veteran QBs this year. At the same time, some young QBs have taken his unit for an absolute ride. I've seen some former NFL people talk about this phenomenon where playing 3D chess vs a QB who doesn't have a ton of experience backfires. They don't fall for traps because they're blind to the bait. I'm not saying this is the type of QB Maye is, but don't treat him the same you would a QB like Mahomes by default. Keep in mind this defense, which held the Cowboy's top offense to their 2nd lowest scoring output of the year, was diced up by Jaxon Dart in his first career start.
On the other hand, Here are the basic keys to victory for the Patriots:
1. Study Liam Coen's offensive playbook and simply run the exact same thing. As an OC vs Minter, Coen has put up 75 points in two games. And it's not been an outmuscling or out-talenting type performance. It's been an out-thinking.
2. Run stunts. It's been 2 years and this offensive line under Mike Devlin still has no fucking clue how to pick up a stunt. Target whoever the weakest OL is (Bozeman, Deculus, Becton, Penning, Pipkins) and just have Landry and Williams (or whomever) run a stunt into him every single obvious passing down. You will have an INSTANT, borderline unblocked pressure.
3. Cover Keenan Allen. Sounds simple, right? One of the cool things about Justin Herbert is that he seemingly has endless trust in everybody. Quentin Johnston could drop 50000 balls in a row, Herbert will still give him contested targets. The difference with keenan is that not only does Herbert trust him, but he can be trusted. QJ will drop balls. Gadsden and Dissley will deflect an catch for an INT. McConkey will let one go through his hands. Keenan will catch that shit. He will run the right route, make the right adjustment, be in the right place. Cover Keenan.
So thats what I think the Chargers need to do to win. And I 100% believe that, if these OLs play on an equivlent level, the Chargers will win. I simply have no faith in that happening, though.