Knee Jerk Reactions to Week 15: Patriots vs. Bills

Things to consider while hoping my Christmas display didn't kill a 10-game winning streak:

--This was by no means a must-win, have-to-have-it, season-on-the-line game. But it was very much a statement game. Win, and that statement would've been "The Patriots are the new dominant power in the East." And that was certainly the way it was being written over the first 25 minutes of the game clock. Instead, it's a much simpler statement. "Not yet." 

--It's hard to overstate just how all-powerful the Pats were as they jumped out to a 21-0 lead. Everything they did on both sides of the ball was working to perfection. They scored as many points in the 1st quarter (14) as Buffalo had total yards from scrimmage. In the half, the Bills managed just 23 passing yards, 53 yards on the ground, and 5 1st downs. For the Pats, those numbers were 108, 177, and 16. 

--The Pats looked poised, efficient, disciplined, and thoroughly prepared and up to the moment on both sides of the ball. Josh McDaniels had clearly spent the bye combing through the playbook, looking for pages he hadn't been using much. Including a lot of Jumbo packages. I lost track of how many times Thayer Munford Jr. reported as eligible. And, if I'm being honest, who Thayer Munford Jr. is. The two tight end sets he's been featuring all year were practically non-existent, as Austin Hopper played a season-low number of snaps. Instead we got a lot of split-back sets, a few I-formation runs, and two-wide receiver looks. The opening drives, when McDaniels was still operating off the scripted plays, had the Bills on their back foot, with inside power runs, a reverse to Pop Douglas, and this gem by Kayshon Boutte:

And read options on both of Drake Maye's first touchdown runs:

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--Defensively, they had James Cook bottled up for the most part, rotating through different looks up front, with Khyiris Tonga back playing a lot of 1-shade in under fronts and he and Christian Barmore head up on the guards in more balanced looks. They were executing a lot of safety rotations and linebackers dropping into the shallow passing lanes that had Josh Allen confused and settling for check downs. They'd reversed the season-long trend of getting snowplowed in the first drive, producing two 3 & outs, including a second Buffalo possession that netted -5 yards. They came out of the locker room more than ready for this moment. 

--Until they weren't. Until the Bills put on a masterclass of making adjustments that needs to be studied by scientists, philosophers and theologians. Sean McDermott played his UNO Reverse card, and the game changed in an instant. It turned into the 2021 playoff game at Buffalo:

And the rest of the way, they might as well have been trying to stop Cooks and Allen with a box-and-stick trap. Five straight Buffalo possessions ended in touchdowns. They were 5-for-5 in the red zone over that stretch, and only the act of mercy that was taking a knee at the end kept it from being worse.

--It was a crushing disappointment from late in the 2nd quarter, on. You could just feel the energy getting sapped out of everybody in the building. In Christmas terms, it was It's a Wonderful Life. But instead of Mary bursting into the house with the whole town on her heels bringing money to keep George from going to White Collar Crime prison, she says she's still waiting for people to respond to her group text. And the only ones who've gotten back to her said they'll Venmo her after Christmas. 

--The damned shame of it is, Patriots fans turned out for this one. Sure, there were some Bills Mafia in the crowd. But it was nothing like the numbers the Raiders or Steelers drew back in September. And the crowd was on fire from the opening kick. The "M!V!P!" chants after both of Maye's touchdowns and the 17 yarder he picked up after he was wrapped up in the backfield:

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… were so loud you could feel them from the press box and I was looking up whether the stadium was earthquake-proofed. The place was not just electric, it was a nuclear reactor. And I for a while, I wasn't begrudging the few who sold their tickets on the secondary market to visit family for the holidays or go skiing or whatever. Because that gave us the added benefit of watching Bills fans get the Sads as their reign of terror in the division was coming to an end before their eyes. But as it turns out, I hope you all got a good price. Because whatever you charged, it was worth double to them.

--What exactly Buffalo's adjustments were, we'll get into shortly. The officials for sure didn't help. It felt like every one of those Bills touchdown drives got extended by a flag on a 3rd down stop or pass break up ruled a DPI. The most egregious of which were on Craig Woodson to set up the Bills third touchdown, and Carlton Davis to set up their fifth. Both calls were pure garbage. It felt as if, with Patrick Mahomes getting hurt, the NFL's quota of Bad Calls Favoring a Star Quarterback were all being transfered into Allen's account. Every time the refs huddled, you just knew you weren't going to like what they were about to say. You know a crew has lost control of a game when the ref has to go on the mic to say, "I apologize, but we got that right," like a boyfriend who's trying to smooth things over but still has to win the argument. In all, the Bills only drew two flags for 15 yards. The Pats had seven for 65, but it felt like double that because every one of them was huge and one or two were declined. 

--Keeping with the Christmas theme, the officials weren't so much the Grinch than they were the Santa from Rudolph. The one who's such a dick to his employees that when one of them has a son with a birth defect, he ostracizes the child and exiles him out into the wildneress until he realizes the kid can be useful to his career. But whether you believe the Pats were being done dirty (I raise my hand) or they just kept shooting themselves in the foot, we can all agree the Patriots simply aren't good enough  to beat a team like Buffalo unless they play virtually mistake-free. Yet. 

--As disappointing as this was, there's still an element of moral victory to it. Yes, they blew a 21-point lead. But such comebacks are part of who the Bills have been the last five years. It's in their DNA. You can call yourself a lot of things after losing this way to them, just not special. It happens to everybody. And the fact remains the Patriots have developed a special talent before our eyes of the past couple of months. I mean, remember in September when people were wondering if we'd overrated TreVeyon Henderson? Here he got a seam thanks to blocks from Morgan Moses and Munford on the edge, and Jared Wilson pulling, and he was gone:

--And any team that can get a 65-yard lead block from its quarterback is one nobody is going to want to face in the playoffs:

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--That was a hell of a moment. They'd taken the Bills best shot. Buffalo had fired every round in the clip and then threw the empty gun at them. And Henderson and Maye gave them the lead back. The fact remains though, that the lead lasted 3 minutes. The Pats had the ball for two possessions after the Bills took a 35-31 lead. The first was a 3 & out that lost 7 yards. The other was a turnover on downs that netted 5 yards. That's two chances to put on a game-winning drive that resulted in negative yards. There's yer problem, lady. A championship team led by an MVP quarterback takes care of its business in that situation. We're not there yet.

--Circling back to the adjustments McDermott made, the Patriots were successful early on with man coverages. By the late 2nd quarter, with a short field (thanks to a bad day all around by the Patriots kick coverage unit), Buffalo started employing a lot of man-beater concepts, mesh routes, rubs, crossers and the like. It seemed like every 3rd and long someone was coming open across the middle with a half a step on a defender. When they tried to counter punch with more zone looks, there were breakdowns, like leaving Dalton Kincaid unaccounted for in the deep middle for 24 yards on 3rd & 7 to set up the touchdown that gave them their first lead, 28-24. Essentially from late in the 2nd quarter on, Allen was playing Buck Hunter, and very rarely did he miss his targets.

--A third meeting between these two teams in the playoffs would be absolutely wild. Dumbledore and Voldemort fighting in a castle, hurling giant tongues of fire and huge walls of water at each other. Shards of glass that get turned into sand. There'll be better match ups and easier teams to beat. But this is one Muggle who would love to see a rematch.

--This Week's Applicable Movie Quote: "Well, if this isn't the biggest bag-over-the-head punch in the face." - Clark Griswold, Christmas Vacation

--The damned shame of all of this is it wasted what would've been an iconic moment:

I didn't know it was possible for the male physique to achieve this look. If I looked like Hollins, my shirt budget would be $0 a year. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to get to the gym.