From Fraud Watch To Title Contenders: The New NBA Season Is Upon Us, And Things Are As Wide Open As Ever

We're just one more sleep away from the start of the 2025-26 NBA season, which means it's time for one of my favorite blogs of the year. Ahead of every season, I like to break up the landscape of the league into different categories as a way to set expectations for what we're about to experience over the next 8ish months. Not every team in the league enters the season with the same type of expectation or is currently in the same situation, but all teams have reasons you should pay attention, even the ones destined to win under 20 games and are destined for the Lottery.

This is a blog about pressure. Pressure to finally break through and reach the top of the mountain. Pressure to prove you are not a fraud. Pressure to show your rebuild is headed in the right direction. Pressure to show that you are ready to live up to lofty expectations. As always, if you'd like the full experience, just hit play and have the video below run as you run through each section, and let's dive right in

House Money

Teams: Thunder, Celtics, Pacers

Let's start with the group of teams that I feel as though are entering the season with what I call, house money. A permanent fixture in this group is the defending Champ. For this season, that is the Oklahoma City Thunder.

While there is some "pressure" for them to finally be a Champ who gets out of the 2nd round and actually is able to defend their title, if they don't, it's whatever. Their core is locked up for the foreseeable future. They are positioned well to navigate the 2nd apron, and ya know, they just won the title. If the Thunder follow the recent trend dating back nearly a decade and don't go B2B, it's not like that invalidates what we saw in 2024-25. They did it. They silenced the doubters, they earned their place in NBA history forever. It's not exactly a stretch to assume they'll be just as good this upcoming season, but there certainly is not the same level of pressure we saw last year, when the Thunder were having a historic season that would have been one of the biggest chokes in NBA history had they not won. They did, which puts them in this group.

For the Pacers/Celtics, they are in this group for unfortunate reasons. When your franchise player tears his achilles, you're basically given a pass for whatever the hell happens this upcoming season. Should you overachieve and make the Playoffs? Great! Should you have a disaster season and end up in the Lottery? Also great! That means some young guys took a leap. To me, that's the very definition of playing with house money.

Fraud Watch

Team: Knicks, Cavs, Wolves, Rockets

Welcome to what I consider the most intruiging grouping of the upcoming NBA season. All of these teams are considered legit title contenders/teams that should win the title, yet what makes them different from some other "contenders" is the fact that we still don't know if they're for real, or ultimately frauds. 

The Knicks coming off their ECF appearence are considered to be a team that finally breaks through this season. We've heard how this is their best roster ever now that they finally have a bench. We've heard how Mike Brown is going to change the offense. Well, guess what comes with those expectations? Actually breaking through and not just making the Finals, but winning the whole thing. The East has never been more wide open, the Knicks are healthy and reloaded, so it's time for them to prove they are not frauds. Another ECF appearance would be a failure. Anything under that, a compelte disaster. If you want to be the favorite/a contender, you must accept the pressure that comes with it.

With the Cavs, they might be the leader in the clubhouse in terms of Fraud Watch. Especially coming off a 64 win season in which they once again, did not even make the ECF. Sorry, but I think everyone is very tired of hearing shit like this come from the Cavs players

Enough of this coulda woulda shoulda bullshit. Actually get it done. Period. You have the talent, you have the coach, you have the previous playoff failure, it's time to actually prove that you are in fact, not frauds. The path has never been clearer for them to finally get out of the second round, and it should be mentioned that the clock has officially started when it comes to the Cavs and the 2nd apron. You only really get two swings at things as constructed when you're a 2nd apron team, and that is what the Cavs are this season. Should they underachieve again, it could very well start the tear down process since all signs will be pointing to this group not actually being contenders.

For the Wolves, it's time for a jump. Making the WCF is great and all, but when Ant is talked about as a top 5 guy, the roster is expensive and there's been previous success, it's time to show that it's actually real and the Wolves can make that leap into the Finals. You can only play the "Ant is still young" card so many times. At some point, that level of player has to break through. We've seen players in their age 24 season on a contender break through and make the Finals, it's time for Ant to do the same.

With the Rockets, they find themselves in this group mostly because of what they did last year (2 seed, lost in RD1), and who they added this summer (KD). They are the hot pick in the West this season, well now with real expectations, can they show to be legit? Or, are they just another overhyped young team that benefitted from playing hard every night, but when the real season started (playoffs), they weren't actually as ready as we thought? All the expectations of Amen's leap, how KD will save their offense, Ime weirdly thinking he invented playing double bigs, this season is a big time fraud watch for the Rockets now that they are no sneaking up on anyone.

Better win the title

Teams: Nuggets, Bucks, Clippers, Warriors

I have this group of teams in this section for different reasons. For the Nuggets, it's because outside of OKC, you will not find a team many expect to win the title this year more than the Nuggets. This is their best roster since their title team in 2023, they addressed the backup center spot, they have a real bench, and oh yeah, they have the best player in the world. The Nuggets are also a team that will most likely start their 2nd apron clock after their pending extensions, so there is definitely a sense of urgency. Barring any sort of major injury, the Nuggets not winning the title this season would be a massive failure.

The Bucks are in this group for me not because I think they actually have a shot, but more that it might take winning a title just to keep Giannis in MIL. That's an entirely different type of pressure, especially since I don't think many consider this to be a title worthy roster. If you wanted to say the Bucks could just make the Finals and Giannis would stay, fine. But me? I think they have to win it. Given the situation in the East and Giannis' standing as a player, the pressure's on.

For both the Clippers and Warriors, this is more age related than anything else. Their rosters are old as shit. They made win now moves not just to make the WCF or NBA Finals, but to win it. We don't know how long the Clippers core will be around, Steph probably only has a few more seasons left, Horford/Jimmy Butler aren't getting any younger, so for both of those teams, the time to win is NOW. 

Reputations are on the line

Teams: Sixers, Lakers, Mavs

Joel Embiid certainly wasn't shy about the disrespect he feels coming out of his preseason debut

And with how open the East is, you won't find a better opportunity for a big bounce back season for the Sixers. If Embiid wants to shake the reputation he currently has as a player and his ability to carry a franchise to the promise land, this is a pretty big season for both him and the team. For all we know, this may be one of Embiid's final few chances to prove he can be that guy in Philly. There's no reason why this shouldn't be a top 4 seeded team given their talent, and if it can't happen for the Sixers in a down year in the East, when will it ever?

I think it goes without saying why Luka is in this group. He's the face of the Lakers. He spent all summer getting his dick sucked about how good of shape he's in. He's entering his age 26-27 season. Just like the generational talents before him, it's time to win. I could argue no star player's reputation is on the line more this season than Luka. He's had a full year in LA, the trade is in the past, and now it's time to carry the Lakers the way a franchise player must. This is no longer LeBron's team, it's Luka's team. With that, comes a great amount of pressure, and we're about to find out what that looks like for Luka and the Lakers. His reputation took a big time hit after the 2024 Finals (rightfully so), so this is his chance to reshape the narrative.

I have the Mavs in this group, because this entire season and future of the Mavs falls on the brain of Nico Harrison. We're about to see if he was actually onto something with all the bullshit he pulled last year, or if his reputation as the worst to ever do it is actually right on the money. They may not have title expectations, but we do need to see the direction and that the franchise is better off with the path they chose. With Kyrie out and AD out of shape it may take some time, but the pressure is certainly on Nico to show the world he actually has a plan and wasn't just helping his friend Rob Pelinka by gifting him Luka.

Time for a leap

Teams: Spurs, Pistons, Blazers, Hawks, Magic

For this group, each team showed some promise last season and look to be trending in the right direction. These are teams that used to stink, but through their rebuilds are starting to look like they're ready to take that next step. For teams like the Hawks/Pistons, that's officially being done with the Play In World and proving you are a consistent and legit top 6 seeded team. For a teams like the Spurs/Blazers, can they make the leap from the Lottery to the Play In? That might actually be a little light for the Spurs given the Wemby factor, but you can't skip steps in a rebuild in my opinion.

The Pistons took their initial leap last year, so for them it's about backing that up. The Hawks are a hot preseason pick given the summer they had, and the return of key players from injury. The Magic took their initial step forward, and now after their summer are wildly hyped as a top 3ish seed in the East. If we end up seeing a surprise leap this season, my guess is it's going to come from one of those 4 teams.

Everyone else

Teams: Heat, Bulls, Raptors, Nets, Hornets, Wizards, Grizzlies, Kings, Suns, Pelicans, Jazz

I think most people expect these teams to stink, so I figured let's just group them all together. Perhaps someone proves to be better than expected (Hornets), but this group is a mix of teams either stuck in NBA Purgatory (Heat/Bulls/Raptors/Kings), teams already crushed with injury (Grizzlies), or teams in the early stages of their rebuild. That doesn't mean they can't be fun League Pass watches, but in terms of expectations? They all kind of just exist.

So that's my official grouping ahead of the 2025-26 NBA season. How it all eventually plays out is the fun part, and I think it's fair to suggest we're in for one hell of a season.