BREAKDOWN: Three Things That Have To Happen For The Red Sox To Beat The Yankees

Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox. Getty Images.

There are a few things that don't really matter as far as the Red Sox beating the Yankees in their best-of-three Wild Card series, at least according to this Red Sox blogger. 

Like, playing in New York will not be a deciding factor. There have been 12 of these best-of-three Wild Card series since 2022 - the road team has won 8 of those 12.

Even with the Yankees trying to keep Red Sox fans out by restricting ticket sales, I don't think the home-field advantage will be the deciding factor. It's some weak shit from the Yankees, but ultimately, Sox fans will find a way into Yankee Stadium. 

The pressure of the series;  yeah, that won't be the reason the Red Sox lose. Even if the Sox do lose, this has been a successful season. They're loaded with young talent, and this feels like the beginning of the next Red Sox Run. The Yankees are older, and they're supposed to win now. It's been 15 years since they won a World Series. If the pressure gets to either team, it will 100% be the Yankees. Yankees fans will let them hear it if they struggle in this series. 

But the Red Sox are underdogs for a reason. If they are going to advance to face the Blue Jays in the ALDS, three things have to happen.

1. Garrett Crochet has to win Game One. 
The lefty has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Tarik Skubal will win the AL Cy Young, but Crochet will be a solid second. He's 3-0 against the Yankees this season. Not sure how much batter/pitcher splits matter in the playoffs, but Chrochet has faced Aaron Judge 15 times in his career and struck him out in 11 of those at-bats (more on this below).

Crochet is the best pitcher in this series, and he needs to go out and win Game One. Again, there have been 12 of these best-of-three Wild Card series: the team that has won Game One has gone on to win all twelve. Ten of the twelve have gone just two games. I don't see a scenario where the Sox lose Game One and win the series. 

Brian Fluharty. Getty Images.

2. Whitlock and Chapman have to be lights out.
Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman have been virtually unhittable at the back end of the Sox bullpen. Since June 29, they've combined to pitch 60 2/3 innings, allowing five earned runs (0.74 ERA), while striking out 79 batters and giving up just one home run. That brilliance will have to continue in this series if the Red Sox are going to advance. Boston rode a loaded bullpen to the World Series in 2013, and they might have to do it again. 

New York Yankees. Getty Images.

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3. Don't let the Yankees get hot. 
Boy, what a dumb sentence, but let me explain. I am not some sort of analytics denier, but I'm guessing I'd get pushback from the nerds when I admit that I think home runs are contagious. The Yankees hit a million home runs this season (well, 274, leading all of baseball by 30). If they start launching homers in bunches, the Sox are cooked. According to MLB.com, over the last four postseasons, teams are 95-20 when out-homering their opponents — a .826 winning percentage. 

Judge has just three hits off Crochet in 15 at-bats - two of those are home runs. That sort of sums this up - the Yankees' offense is fueled by home runs, and home runs have equaled wins in postseason as of late. Homers in bunches for New York will mean the end of the Red Sox season. 

I'll be in New York at the Barstool offices for this series. Hopefully, Marty and Tommy can focus on their team and stop picking on Klemmer and Frank because the Mets suck; Yankees fans seem obsessed with the Mets. Weird. 

I feel pretty confident about the Red Sox this week. I'd feel better if Roman Anthony were healthy. My gut says Chochet is lights out in Game One. And teams that win Game One win these series. ALL the pressure is on New York. So yeah, Red Sox in two games. But it's going to be a tense few games - it's Red Sox/Yankees, so of course. 

The Sox have ended the Yankees' season the last three times they've met in the playoffs. Might as well make it four.