The Bucks Officially Rule Out Giannis For The Start Of The Playoffs Which Means The Pacers Now Have An Opportunity Of A Lifetime

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OK, I'm not sure this is really "Breaking News" as opposed to just confirming what most people expected to come out ahead of the Bucks/Pacers first round series, but it's still huge news. When we first learned about a week ago that Giannis' MRI was clean and that it was just a sprained calf, in looking at what the potential schedule might be for this series, given the spacing between each game I figured around Game 3 was when we should probably expect Giannis back

So while it's possible that Giannis is back in 11 days, it also wouldn't shock me if the Bucks are super cautious. You don't want a KD situation where a calf strain turns into a popped achilles. So let's say they play on the 20th, Game 2 I'm assuming would be 4/23, and then you get another 2 days off for the travel. Last year MIL's Game 3 in the first round was 4/22, so this year following that same timeline you're looking at 4/26. That's just over 2 weeks from today, and what I would consider a realistic return date

My thought process was mostly you want to do everything you can do avoid a potential KD situation where that calf strain is all of a sudden a popped Achilles, which means even if Giannis is some sort of super-healer, you still want to be overly cautious. Now that we're hearing from Woj that the expectation is Giannis returning "later in the series" that pretty much tells you we're looking at either Game 3 or Game 4. If the Bucks were to at least split the first two games, it wouldn't shock me one bit if we see the Bucks hold it out until Game 4. It's not like we haven't seen a Giannis-led team come back from a potential 2-1 deficit before, and with an injury like this, I would imagine it's not all that smart to rush someone back unless they are truly 100%.

When you also line it up with what people who track this sort of thing suggest

it all tracks for a Game 3/4 return.

What this means, of course, is that the Pacers now have an opportunity of a lifetime. There's been a lot of talk about how IND has won 4 of 5 against the Bucks and they're a bad matchup etc, and to some degree that's true. I would also just say that the playoffs are not the regular season. Regular season dominance does not always translate to postseason dominance. Haliburton hasn't been quite the same, the Pacers as a whole look different, and the Bucks certainly do as well. 

But one thing you can't deny is Giannis' two-way impact, especially against a team that gives up a ton of points in the paint on one end and then has one of the best offenses in the league on the other. If there's one thing the Pacers do well defensively, it's take away your 3s. If you then think of how a Dame-led Bucks team is going to have to score, that does sort of play into the Pacers gameplan.

The goal for any road team to start a series is to find a way to walk away with at least a split so you can take over homecourt advantage. The Pacers don't need to win both, but that's what makes Game 1 so important. That's usually the game you see road teams steal. You'll remember that's exactly what the Heat did in their series last year, winning that Game 1 130-117. If you can find a way to be the team that punches first, it can oftentimes change the entire momentum of the series. The Heat did it vs MIL, they did it vs NYK, and they did it against BOS. That's the path for a team looking to make an "upset". Get Game 1 and the pressure swings in a big, big way.

What's interesting about this matchup is now that Giannis is ruled out combined with their regular season success, the Pacers aren't exactly playing with "house money". There are real expectations that they now win this series. Everywhere you look, people are talking about this being a first round upset before we've even seen a single dribble. 

I'll just say this.

You can't talk all that shit during the year, get a Giannis injury prayer before the playoffs, and then not win the series. All year it's felt like the Pacers weren't really playing with expectations, as this was their first year as a top 6 seed. You usually get one "surprise" season before people start expecting results, so honestly we have no idea how the Pacers will respond to this situation. They're the 6 seed, but are sneaky being talked about as a favorite. The encouraging sign could very well be the fact that they were 27-21 this year against teams .500 or better, which tied MIL for the 2nd most wins of any top 6 seed in the East. They're usually pretty good against the best of the best, but that was with a different set of expectations.

Now, the door is wide open for them to make a statement and steal this series. Whether or not they are ready to take advantage is what we're about to find out.