Handicapping The "Surviving Barstool" Contestant Pool
Surviving Barstool kicks off tonight. It's presented by Factor, and hosted by Jeff Lowe. There's $100,000 on the line, and it's being hailed by critics (Portnoy, and Bosco) as "some of, if not the best content Barstool has ever put out."
Those are pretty big words when you consider some of the stuff that's come out of this place.
New episodes drop every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights and here's the full schedule.
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They actually did a pretty incredible job of keeping this thing tight-lipped. Both while they were filming it a couple weeks ago, and since. I haven't heard so much as a peep from anybody on what went down during it, nevermind who came away with the money.
There are 14 people all competing for the 6-figure prize and we're going to break them and their chances down here in blog form.
Will Compton +7500
I've only met Will once, while at the Barstool Chicago office a few weeks ago so I don't want to sit and pretend I know him well enough to know his chances in this competition.
That said, I do know a few things about him.
1- He's a very handsome man, especially for how short he is. In pretty much every other juncture in life this would work to his advantage. Not with Surviving Barstool and not when Dave Portnoy is involved. Dave hates people he sees as a threat to him in the looks department. This is the furthest thing from a beauty contest but that doesn't matter. Dave is going to have Will in his sights from the minute Jeff introduces everybody. Don't be surprised if he's the first one Dave convinces everybody else to gang up on and send home.
2- He planned a trip to Italy on fucking Orbitz.com. Then got furious when they (obviously) fucked him and his family over. Anybody with a brain, especially well functioning adult men know you never book anything except (maybe) a one night hotel stay, or a rental car on orbitz. A full fledged European vacation for your family in the most beautiful country on Earth? Definitely not. And don't get me started on the fact he never even reached out to me for my restaurant recommendations and hookups while there. Not sure he's got the brains to hang with the rest of the squad here.
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Feitelberg +10000
You heard it in the trailer from his own mouth, John is just here for "a good time".
The famous last words of every loser in history.
John's whole life has pretty much been setting the bar extremely low, not getting his own, or anybody else's expectations up too high, and then never disappointing anybody as a result. Some would call this genius. I disagree. Personally, I think never getting a fat bonus check from inventing the multi-million dollar "Saturdays Are For The Boys" campaign left him a broken man. There's a reason he's now the spokesman for the entire Sad Boy lifestyle movement.
PFT Commenter +2000
PFT could win this entire thing if he really wanted to. He's one of the smartest people I've ever met and when he's not wearing his sunglasses, you can see the gears in his brain working through his eyes. He thinks in chess moves which is why I think he could dance circles around this field if he really wanted to. Sad part is I think much like his hero, Albert Haynesworth, he got paid, and his days of chasing after the money are behind him. I can see PFT sticking around long enough and relishing stirring shit up and getting under people's skin until it comes down to the final handful of names, before his torch is extinguished.
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Jersey Jerry +8000
Jerry kind of scares me so I'm not going to really say anything here bad about him. He's a wildcard, which could be good, or could be bad for this competition. I don't see him coming away with this pot with so many other seasoned strategists in the mix.
KFC +9000
If Dave wasn't involved in this I'd actually like Kevin's chances and say he had a decent shot at winning this thing. He's done a pretty impressive job being here for 15 years, getting himself and the company in really really deep shit, but coming out clean on the other end like Andy Dufresne army crawling through a raw sewage pipe. There's a lot to be said for that. It takes skill. And it speaks to not just his value, but his ability to weather storms, and smooth things over. All of which would come in handy in a game of strategy like this.
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But none of that matters since Dave is involved. If not for Will's good looks, KFC would be the first to go. Dave can't stand him and enjoys watching Kevin lose more than he enjoys winning himself. I wouldn't be shocked if he offers all the other contestants $10,000 to vote Kevin off.
Big Cat +850
I analyzed my system and in every simulation I ran, Dan came out in the last remaining 3 contestants each time. I've known him a long time, and I think Dan might be the sneaky smartest person I have ever met. I say sneaky not in the sense that people don't think he's smart or he comes off dumb. Not the case, everyone knows how smart he is. But I don't think people realize just how smart he is. Like his counterpart PFT, he thinks like he's playing chess, always 3-4 steps ahead. I remember thinking years ago that Dan must have read Machiavelli's "The Prince" and absorbed it like a sponge because I've never seen somebody execute its teachings as well in anything, anywhere. I can see him using those same skills here in this game, pitting friends against friends, putting others in mental pretzels, and being intimidating just enough to scare the majority out of challenging him.
I think Big Cat is the second to last men standing.
Dave EVEN MONEY
Here's the thing, I don't think Dave wins this thing, for several reasons, but at the same time, I won't be the least bit shocked if he does.
The last thing he needs is $100,000. But that's not what motivates him or gets his blood flowing. He enjoys crushing the competition, making and watching other people squirm, and laughing in people's faces when they lose.
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He's a sick fuck like that.
But the really twisted part is that where as any other one of us humans who was wired that way, or behaved like that, would endure extreme amounts of bad karma, Dave somehow just keeps winning.
I can see him employing some really underhanded tactics to attempt to come out on top in this thing, I just don't think he truly has the heart to take $100 grand off of one of his hard-working employees' dinner tables. For that reason, I can see him bowing out second or third to last.
Kirk +1000
Much like Jerry, Kirk scares me. He's one of those people who tiptoes the line between mad genius and crazy person. He's way too smart for his own good or that of anybody in his orbit. I think the rest of the field realizes this, and he won't have enough allies around him to keep him in the fold for long. I see an early exit.
Hank +7000
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The Hammer got thrown into this mix and the sharps are calling him chum. People think he's involved in this out of the kindness of several people's hearts, but what the average Barstool fan doesn't realize is Hank is a little shit-stirrer behind the scenes. He's not on Gaz' level, but he can plunge knives into people's backs with the best of them. Don't be shocked to see Hank sell PFT or Big Cat down the river if presented the opportunity.
Rico Bosco +10000
Rico is like the "Puck" of this group. Everybody knows what will set him off and what his buttons are, and even though he's the chillest, coolest guy to be around so long as nobody pushes them, they'll get the urge and do it anyway and all hell will break loose. Chaos will ensue, Security Mike will probably be called to talk Rico down, Dan and Dave will claim over and over they meant nothing by whatever they did/said, and Trent will be waiting on the curb with Rico's bags as he heads home.
Cheah +10000
Steven Cheah is an enigma.
Before I got to know him, I kind of resented him in the same way that an ex-wife resents a trophy wife because they put in all the hard years and work, while the trophy wife gets to enjoy the spoils (IE- with him thinking and celebrating Brady and Gronk like they were real Buccaneers). I didn't know what to expect when finding out he was moving to Chicago. The phrases I'd been told to describe Cheah before meeting him was "touched", and "Rain Man", so I was pretty shocked when I've interacted with him and he was pretty normal. Watching him play Yak Basketball during the Barstool Invitational, I was very impressed. He might have been the most athletic non-athlete on the court.
I don't know what to think about Steven. For all I know, he could be putting over one giant con on us all like the Talented Mr. Ripley.
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The line is giving him zero credit, basically listing him as chum, but I think there's a ton of value there.
Tommy Smokes +1200
Tommy is one of the favorites and for good reason. The kid lives, eats, and breathes reality game shows. The fact that he was able to break Francis on the last time he competed on a Barstool gameshow, won the whole thing, then retired, and is coming out of retirement like Jordan in this says all that needs to be said. Tommy is a front-runner for good reason.
Gaz +1000
The straw that stirs the drink indeed.
This game was basically invented for Paul to shine.
For too long Gaz has lurked, operating in the shadows, carrying out his hit-squad takedowns, and elaborate mouse traps. Personally, I am giddy with excitement for the world to finally see and hear how Paul thinks and works via Surviving Barstool. Some will be shocked. I will not be one of them.
Nate +600
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I want it on the record, I am calling it now, the Nate Dawg is going to win this thing. I Can Feel It In My Plums.
Fun fact here- Nate texted me this weekend, super pissed off at me, (shocking I know), reminding me that I am lucky to still have a job here and that he saved me from getting fired, and from the company being fined "millions and millions" of dollars because I wrote a blog very similar to this very one, a couple years ago when we were a gambling company, about The Grammy's and who I thought was going to win each category. I included lines from a sportsbook that was not the official Barstool Sportsbook and thus the crime. Back at the time, and again once being reminded this weekend, I thought this was nonsense and blown way out of proportion. But once I sat with it, reread the text, and gave it some thought, I think I believe the Nate Dawg now? I think I actually do owe working at Barstool all to Nate. And that's how he gets you. Nate stands so fucking firm in his beliefs, and will die on any and every single hill, that he gets in your head and makes you question reality. If you think I'm joking, just wait and watch as this series unfolds. You'll be bound to witness it yourself.
He was also playing this game before it even began.
We were all out in the West Village at one of the bars Gaz owns (figuratively not literally) and he was talking me ear off forever about his strategy coming into the competition, and how he had been laying the groundwork for it with Dave and the other competitors that entire week.
I think we both took a fucking bath in the stock market this past year and he really really wants that $100,000 to help offset some of that and will be busting his ass to come out on top.
Nate is my dark horse to win this thing.
SURVIVING BARSTOOL PRE-PREMIERE BOARD
Nate +600
Dave = Even Money
Big Cat +850
PFT +2000
Jerry +8000
Hank +7000
Rico Bosco +10000
Kirk +1000
Cheah +10000
Tommy +1200
Compton +7500
KFC +9000
Feitelberg +10000
Gaz +1000
The Bears and Vikings are on Monday Night Football in what will probably be the worst prime time game of the season. So spare yourselves and tune in tonight at 7 pm Eastern for our Annual Barstool Cyber Monday Telethon and then at 8 pm right here for the debut episode of Surviving Barstool.
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p.s- one of my favorite barstool shirts ever, the larry legend 3 pt moneyball, has been re-released in the barstool store and is 20% off along with everything else for only a few more hours.