Is The MLB Regular Season Officially Meaningless?
I was listening to "Mostly Sports" with Brandon Walker and Markelle Titus this morning. I like to listen to it because they talk mostly about sports. In today's episode, Mark questioned whether or not the regular season in baseball is essentially meaningless at this point. As somebody who watches more baseball games per year than he'd like to admit, I wish I could fight back against this argument. I will in some capacity, but I think with the expanded postseason format, we need to accept that flexing regular season dominance is no longer a good idea.
The Major League Baseball season is the largest sample size of any regular season in sports. Most teams assemble their roster to withstand the 162-game grind. It's a reason why the Dodgers, despite 1 million pitching injuries, still won 100 games this year. They have lineups that out-slug you. They spend more money than you, and ultimately, they will dominate lesser opponents in the regular season. Despite not spending money, Tampa Bay incorporates small market analytics and outsmarts other teams during the regular season.
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By the time you get to October, the sample size diminishes greatly. Are the Arizona Diamondbacks more talented roster than the Los Angeles Dodgers? No, but I would argue that because they have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the top of the rotation, they are a roster that's more equipped to make a deep run in October, at least in 2023.
There's no one proper way to build a baseball team. Every organization in baseball would take the Los Angeles Dodgers' success over the last decade, at least in the regular season. But I think certain executives are willing to trade regular season dominance for postseason success. Dave Dombrowski, the current GM for the Phillies, has taken four different teams to the World Series. Only one of those teams (the 2018 Red Sox) was truly dominant in the regular season. In hindsight, nobody cares. They have top-heavy talent; they spend a lot of money, and by the time they get to the postseason, their power arms and home run hitters take over. Having great defensive teams is important, but it matters a lot less in a 15 game sample size.
There is also the magic elixir that comes with October, and that's mental toughness. Some people try to deny it, but there is a massive difference between playing meaningful games in the postseason and playing some random game in July against the Rockies. The modern-day Houston Astros have featured some of the greatest rosters ever assembled, but they also have dudes that were made for October. I don't know if you can chalk that up to luck or not. When the Cubs made their run to the World Series in 2016, Theo Epstein was open that analytics were cool, but you have an advantage when you can pay close attention to the mental makeup of a player. Some guys have it. Some guys don't. Some guys don't have it, and then they can find it.
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You can assemble as dominant a roster as you want, but with the expanded format, Major League Baseball is officially March Madness. You can hang banners for winning your division and acknowledge your incredible run throughout the season, but one bad day can derail your entire season. Even when the playoffs were eight teams, the best of the bunch usually rose to the top. That is no longer the case. The MLB postseason is officially the wild west, and the regular season is just the preliminaries.