Fantasy Football Wins Above Replacement Report - Week 1

For those who don't know me I created this wins above replacement stat a few years ago to closely mimick how sabermetricians invented the idea for baseball. The idea was to find a way to compare players across positions which is impossible to do using points for reasons I won't insult your intelligence by explaining. WAR is easily the only smart thing I've ever done and the entire process is convoluted, but if you're interested in the logic you can check out my linked article above. 

This is all based on 12-team leagues using full PPR and the starting roster listed in the bottom of the graph but if there's particular interest to adjust for other common settings (10-team, half PPR, Super flex, etc) I'm open to adding in future weeks so long as it's common enough to be relatable. 

Anyway, I'm thinking a WAR standings update blog for the top-100 might be interesting to run on Tuesdays for the fantasy football season. Thursday will have to do for Week 1 as it took a while to adjust the code for the season but I'll be ready to roll moving forward.

Let's talk some shop.

Dallas DST - Your #1 overall worthy draft pick through Week 1

As we all guessed! Quick lesson on the logic here. Tyreek Hill scored more points than Dallas, but the reason Dallas is #1 is because a replacement-level DST scored less in Week 1 than a replacement-level wide receiver. So the gap between wins your fantasy team would expect from Dallas vs a replacement vs Hill from a replacement is ever so slightly greater as indicated by the bars. 

Either way, the graph tells us that if Dallas's DST and Tyreek Hill continue through 17 weeks at their pace (and so do the replacements of each position), your fantasy team should expect about eight MORE wins than if you started a replacement-level scrub in all 17 weeks. How many wins do replacement-levels expect to give you? Let's use Dallas as an example. Fantasy teams with an otherwise average team other than starting a replacement-level DST expect to win about 6 games (6-11 record). So having Dallas's DST who provides ANOTHER eight wins would put your fantasy team at an expected 14-3 record.

That's as much of the math as I'm going to get into. But I think the idea of 17 random fantasy teams under these settings having a combined 14-3 record passes the smell test.

Of course, Dallas is never going to be able to keep this up. Looking at their upcoming scheudle, they have… the Jets this week and… the Cardinals in Week 3. 

OK - maybe they can keep it up for a bit. Will be fun to monitor as the weeks progress. 

Top ADP running backs put on in Week 1

As an ardent bell cow RB draft guy, it's nice to see the top three running backs be the ones we most expected. Christian McCaffrey. Austin Ekeler. And whoever is playing my dogshit Bears. 

Top ADP wide receivers were more of a mixed bag

Tyreek obviously smashed but Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne outscoring Justin Jefferson makes you realize why he was so pouty on the sideline. And after seeing Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell as high as they are, I think it's safe to say Matt Stafford is relating to his younger receivers just fine. 

TuAnon Assemble!

Really great to see Tua come out hot to start the season. Never hurts to play a defense who gave up a 27-point lead in the second half of the last game they played. 

Brett Maher Comeback SZN!

There's no job in America with a wider range of performance appraisal scores from one year to the next. Or even one day to the next. This guy single footedly desecrated the field goal kicking profession in the 2022 NFL Playoffs and now he's the #3 kicker in fantasy. That is peak fake football. 

Calvin Ridley bet on himself this time and so did I

This was my #1 get in the draft. I bought into all of the hype video clips of him destroying the other receivers in route running and that is already paying off. Dude could legit contend for the overall #1 wide receiver if Tyreek calms the fuck down just a bit.

Who's back? White tight ends with "HH" initials

Hunter Henry and Hayden Hurst have been "up and coming" for several years and now that we've all forgotten they even exist of course they make their move as the best tight ends in fantasy. These are those guys that you notice on top of your "available players" tab that make you pause for a fraction of a second before scrolling on. 

I have no idea who Blake Bell or Kylen Granson are

Literally checked my code to see if there was some fuck up when I saw these names on my graph. I think I remember Blake on Thursday Night now that I think of it. Will monitor if he's able to climb the standings as we go. Who knows. Maybe we have a Blake of the Year candidate on our hands here.

That's enough takes for Week 1. Try to have Week 2's update on Tuesday. As we progress throughout the year we'll see things start to settle and players with no business being in the top ranks sink down. 


I'm looking at you Cardinals DST!

- Jeffro