68-111-2 (+0.4 units)
We’re back! We’re back! We are so fucking back! Big day for us yesterday! Michael Lorenzen got rocked by the Padres. That was the only blight on our resume. Besides that, it was a dazzling day. The Rays covered on the run line thanks to a Brandon Lowe three-run walk off home run. That was electrifying, as was Jose Altuve. I bet on him to go deep once. He went deep three times. I would argue I should have been paid triple for making that bet, but I digress. So we’re back in the black. Home run props are your best friend. The vibes have returned. I’m hoping we can stay hot. Let’s take a look at today’s picks.
Rays -1.5 (+135) against the Red Sox
I don’t believe that I’ve done this at any point this season, but I’m betting on the Rays for the third day in a row. They’ve had a lot of trouble splitting the first two games of the series, but Tyler Glasnow has been fantastic￼ for them. I’ve never been that high on him. I always felt like his stuff is way better than his numbers, but he’s stayed healthy, and he’s throwing the ball really well. The Red Sox are a scrappy bunch, but they’re coming off of one of the more devastating losses they’ve had all year. Nick Pivetta is going for Boston. His numbers in his career against Tampa Bay are really ugly. I think that trend continues tonight.
Dodgers -1.5 (+105) against the Marlins
I know that Lance Lynn wasn’t good in his last outing against the Braves, but I’m stunned that the Dodgers are at plus money here on the run line. The Marlins have a reliever starting for them. I’m guessing that this will be a bullpen day. The concerns about the Dodgers starting pitching staff are very legitimate. Dave Roberts alluded to Clayton Kershaw still dealing with a lingering issue last night, but we’re still talking about one of the best teams in baseball. To get them at plus money is a really good play.
Juan Soto to homer (+450) against the Phillies
Juan Soto has been on a dangerous hot streak recently. It’s a shame because the Padres are cooked and have been for a while, but Soto remains one of my favorite players to watch go to work. His numbers against Zack Wheeler in his career are really good as well. In 52 plate appearances, he’s collected 11 hits, including two home runs. Those are just regular season numbers. He also took Wheeler deep in Game Five of the NLCS a season ago. I keep it nice and simple with my home run props. Soto is a great hitter. He has good numbers against Wheeler. I need him to go deep.