Now that the 2023 Basketball Hall Of Fame class has been inducted and will live on for the rest of eternity, the time has now come to shift gears and look ahead at the 2024 class. One of the biggest complaints when it comes to the Basketball HOF is the idea in that reality, it might actually be the Hall Of Very Good when it comes to certain players getting in. I'm not sure I totally buy that, but what I do know is when you look at the 2024 class of eligible players, that idea is absolutely going to be put to the test
Not exactly a group of surefire no doubt HOFers like we just saw in 2023, but let's run through the case for each. When you do that, you can sort of understand why this might be the Class Of Very Good.
- 8x All Star
- 2x All NBA
- 25,728 points (23rd all time)
To me, looking at this list the only one who I feel confident in saying should definitely get in is Vince. For starters, there is not a player in NBA history who has cracked the 25,000 career point mark that isn't in the HOF. All 22 guys ahead of Vince are in or are going to be in (Durant, LeBron). Basketball Reference has his chance at 94.5%, so I can't really understand debating Vince's spot. He's a lock.
I suppose if you wanted to play devil's advocate, you could say that his All NBAs are a little light and a big part of his case is the fact that Vince played for a billion years. I look at that longevity as a positive, but we really didn't see the Vince Carter you probably think of for the final 10 years of his career. Over that span, he never averaged more than 16.6 points a game (age 33 to 43). His HOF case is more rooted from 1998-2006 when he was a mid 20s scorer and a lock as an All Star every season.
- 3x 6MOY
- 19,419 career points 62nd
Here's where things start to get tricky. Never an All Star, never an All NBA player, but one of the best 6th man the league has ever seen. If you look around who's close to Crawford in points that's now in the HOF, someone like Tony Parker comes to mind. The issue there is Parker was also a 6x All Star, 4x All NBA player, 4x champ and a Finals MVP. That's…very different.
If you want to compare it to other 6MOYs, maybe you'd go ith someone like Manu. Problem there is Manu was a 2x All Star, 2x All NBA player, 1x 6MOY and a 4x champ.
McHale is a HOFer with the most 6MOY awards (2), but I'm not going to touch that one.
The one thing that may work in Crawford's favor is the fact that Toni Kukoc is in the HOF. He only had 9,810 career points and 1x 6MOY, but he also was a 3x champ. He was never an All Star, he was never an All NBA player. Now maybe you don't think Kukoc should be in, but he's the precedent for someone like Crawford.
Unfortuntely, I just don't see it. If he had crossed over the 20k points threshold maybe, and while there are players in the HOF who are under that mark, they were also more decorated as players. Basketball Reference has this at 0.0%, and I feel like that's probably how it shakes out. A Hall Of Very Good player, but not quite HOF.
- 5x All Star
- 3x All NBA
- 2x All Defense
- 1x Champ
- 1x Finals MVP
I was actually a little surprised Billups didn't get the nod with the 2023 class. He's been a candidate every year since 2018, but he's never actually been a finalist. When you look at his resume, Billups does check a lot of the boxes that usually get you in. Just like the guys who got inducted as part of the 2023 class, Billups has the title, Finals MVP, and at least 5 All Star appearances. Basketball Reference has his chances at 84.4%, which is higher than someone like Tim Hardaway (79.2%). Hardaway had no title or Finals MVP, was a 5x All Star and a 5x All NBA player. When you compare those two, it's hard to imagine one should be in and the other not.
Given the rest of the field, I think this is the year Billups gets in. Personally I think it should have happened already, but he's a little better than someone who should be stuck in the Hall Of Very Good.
- 6x All Star
- 5x All NBA
- 1x ROY
Amar'e is another one of these guys that's probably on the bubble. When healthy, he definitely looked and produced like a HOF talent. He's 123rd all time in scoring with 15,994 points and 152nd all time in rebounding with 6,632. That doesn't exactly scream HOF to me. At the same time, between his All Stars and All NBAs, he does check that box.
What makes it tricky is his resume isn't all that different from Hardaway either, including his 72.9% of getting in. I think we could have a situation where Stoudemire doesn't get in on the first ballot or anything, but may eventually get the nod down the road. Not all that different from the next guy on this list
- 4x All Star
- 2x All NBA
- 1x NBA Champ
Shawn Marion may be the poster child for this entire debate. Like Billups, he's been on the ballot for a few years now but has been passed over each time. He's 87th all time in scoring with 17,700, 45th all time in rebounding with 10,101, 23rd all time in steals with 1,759, 59th in blocks with 1,233 and he was a true definition of a jack-of-all-trades player. I truly think if he played in today's era he'd be even better because he was certainly before his time. He's also another one of these players with a mid 70s HOF probability at 75.6%
So just like Amar'e, there's certainly a case to be made that he should get the nod, but also a case that he's another one of these Hall Of Very Good players. I think for me what stands out is how well he ranks all time across scoring/rebounding/steals and then the ring to cap it off. That's probably where he differs from Amar'e.
I think this is the year he gets it.
- 2x All Star
- 3x All Defense
- 1x All NBA
- 1x DPOY
Make no mistake, Joakim Noah was absolutely one of the best defenders of his era. The guy was a monster and was such a pain in the ass. Energy like you read about.
Unfortunately, the production just isn't there for me. Only 195th in rebounding (6,058) and 135th in blocks (874). He certainly wasn't a scorer, finishing with just 5,881 career points.
Add it all up and combine it with his 0.6% chance of getting in, Noah is going to be another one of those Hall Of Very Good guys. Maybe the face of it if we're being honest because during his prime he was most definitely an impactful player. Just not HOF worthy.
So looking at the potential 2024 class, I have 1 lock with Vince Carter, and then two maybe's/finally get in with Billups/Marion, with three no's in Amar'e, Crawford, and Noah. I can't imagine they have an entire HOF weekend just to induct one guy, so I'm rolling with those three.
Agree? Disagree? Let's hear your case.