53-75-2 (+5.6 units)
We had a split decision yesterday. I rarely do just to plays, but it was a very light board. Paul Goldschmidt did not go deep, though he did come to the dish with the potential to hit a walk off home run against New York. Knowing how the Mets work, I felt like the possibility of Goldy going deep there was pretty high, but he ended up striking out. Zach Gallen did exactly what I hoped he would do. He dominated against the Padres and helped the Diamondbacks cover on the run line. I seem to know that San Diego team pretty well by now. I'm able to pick up on their consistent inconsistency. So we ended up +0.4 units yesterday. Nothing to go crazy over, but it was a positive day. Let's take a look at today's picks.
Astros -1.5 (+135) against the Mariners
The Mariners have been playing some tremendous baseball lately. It would not shock me at all to see them in the postseason. But every time it seems like they're about to shoot off into the stratosphere, they end up playing the Houston Astros. Houston being a problem is not exclusive to Seattle, but they tend to let the air out of many teams' balloons. J.P. France has quietly been a huge part of the Astros' success this season. His peripherals aren't great, but considering their pitching injuries, they've needed him to give them the innings he's given them. It's a good matchup for Houston because, as much as I like Seattle, they lack power in the middle of their lineup. I will be inclined to bet a good pitcher at home against them, especially when that pitcher is backed up by an offense that is good as Houston's.
Dodgers -1.5 (+145) against the Marlins
This was a tough one. Sandy Alcantara has looked more like himself over his last several starts, which does scare me. In his career, though, he's struggled against the Dodgers. He did throw a complete game against them last season, but it was at home. When he's pitched against them on the road, he's tended to get popped. Considering how insanely hot the Dodgers are right now, to get them at +145 on the run line at home is really good. I think they stay hot this evening.
Eddie Rosario to homer (+600) against the Giants
I love these home run props because I feel like I have a leg up on other people. On paper, Eddie Rosario is not one of the scarier hitters in the Braves lineup, though he would be in most other lineups. The Braves just happen to have one of the deepest and best offenses of recent memory. This is where I try to use the data to my advantage. I use stat head for a reason. Eddie Rosario rakes against Alex Cobb. Cobb has had a tremendous year for the Giants, but in 13 plate appearances against Cobb, Rosario has five hits, including two home runs. I feel like betting on some of the lesser hitters in the Braves lineup to go deep is a good idea. You don't want to give Acuña anything to hit, and you don't want to give Olson anything to hit. Alex Cobb will be exhausted by the time he gets to Eddie Rosario in that lineup. I really like the value here at +600.