That same philosophy when it comes to good card players should apply to looking for College Football win totals. Certain teams are great holds aka overachieve and some teams should be folded aka underachieve. People want to complain and whine about having a win total tied up for months, I'll never get that. A wins a win, and if you can essentially predict the future of a team's season, what's wrong with that? Anyway … I like the win totals and being able to forecast a season so I'll always have skin in the game.
Here's three win totals I like this year.
Wisconsin OVER 8.5 Wins -144
Remember that boring old ground and pound type offense? It's gone. Luke Fickell is at the helm with QB Tanner Mordecai, an SMU transfer and what's expected to be a much more uptempo offense. The offensive line will still be beats including 3 starters back and some transfers from Cincinnati. Braelon Allen is one of the most talented RB's in the country. Chez Mellusi adds depth. The top 3 WR's all return (Chimere Dike,Sklyer Bell,and Keontez Lewis) along with big transfers from USC,Cincy and OK State.
The defense returns 5 from a unit that was 17th in total scoring last year and hit the portal hard as well including transfers from Michigan State and Boston College. Mike Tressel as DC is a name that will be floated for head jobs ASAP.
Now the schedule … The Badgers should be double digit favorites against :
Buffalo, @ Wazzou, GA Southern, @ Purdue, Rutgers, @ Indiana, Northwestern, and Nebraska
For this exercise their only loss is Ohio State, which mark my words will be a very close game.
Swing games …
Iowa, @ Illinois, and @ Minnesota
I just need to win 1 of those games? And two of them are at home? I'll take my chances.
Also … just to show how high I am on The Badgers …
Wisconsin To Win Big Ten +900
Wisconsin To Make The Playoff +1100
Wisconsin To Win CFB Title +7500 (75-1)
are all worth a stab in my opinion.
SMU Over 8.5 Wins -105
As much as I love Tanner Mordecai, and it will be a blow to the Mustangs … Preston Stone the new QB is going to be a guy to watch. He played in 6 games last year, and in his lone start threw for over 350 yards. Jaylan Knighton is an upgrade at RB, he's a transfer from Miami. The WR's to watch are Jordan Kerley, Jake Bailey and Moochie Dixon. The O-Line has all upperclassman.The defense needs to improve and will rely on the portal to give them a jolt.
The schedule is VERY favorable.
The two toughest games on the schedule are at Oklahoma, and @ TCU. For this exercise, let's say they lose both. I 100% think they could play spoiler in both of these games.
Every other game they should be a favorite. In 8 games … EIGHT they should be double digit favorites.
LA Tech, Prairie View, Charlotte, @Temple, Tulsa, @Rice, North Texas, and Navy.
The swing games are @ECU (expected to be a favorite), and @ Memphis.
I will take my chances that they get 1 of those two to push over the number. Additionally, SMU +350 to win the AAC is a play for me.
Arizona Under 4.5 Wins +135
Jayden De Laura was much improved last season after leaving Washington State. The Wildcats went from 1 win in 2021 to 5 wins in 2022. Of those 5 wins, three were by one score- which hints at the ball bouncing their way more often than not, and a regression to the means could be due. They will have viable options at RB, and have depth at WR with Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan who combined for 15 TD's.
The Defense returns just 3 starters from a unit that allowed 36.5 points per game (125th), and 467.7 total yards per game (124th). That's a big worry to stay in games, especially in a conference with some great QB's like Bo Nix, Michael Pennix, DJ Uiagalelei, Cam Ward, and Cam Rising.
The schedule is also not favorable for The Wildcats …
They should be double digit dogs in 5 games, and favorites in just 4 total. The losses are expected to be (@ Miss St, Washington, @ USC, @ Oregon St, UCLA, and @ Utah). The wins for sure will be (N.Arizona and UTEP). Then it's four swing games of (@Stanford, @ Wazzou, @ Colorado, and @ Arizona St). They will need 3 of those to push over the number, and all 4 are on the road? I'll take my chances that Arizona will be very pesky against the number this year and a potential cover machine, they will be on the wrong side of wins and losses, resulting in my play of UNDER 4.5 wins for plus money.