46-71-2 (-2.1 units)
They say all good things must come to an end, and that was the case yesterday. We had an over 0-3. The Yankees were going to be my salvation, but ultimately shit their brains out, blowing a huge lead against the Marlins. That team may be dunzo. Put them on my shit list. The other two losses I can’t get too mad about. The Giants won on a walk-off home run but couldn’t cover on the run line, and George Springer, despite having a solid day against the Cubs, could not go deep. Had we hit with a home run prop yesterday, we would’ve officially been en fuego. So it’s not necessarily back to the drawing board, but the good vibes have subsided slightly. We still had a pretty good month of gambling, and we’re looking to get back on the right track today. Let’s take a look at today’s picks.
Astros -1.5 (+125) against the Marlins
I like the value on this one. Framber Valdez, despite recently throwing a no-hitter, hasn’t looked like himself for a minute. I think all the innings he’s eaten up over the last several years are starting to catch up to him. The Marlins are coming off of that miraculous victory against the Yankees and might have some good juju going. But I really like betting on the Astros at plus money. They’ve been very good to me. At this point this season, I am inclined to bet on teams chasing their division. I feel like there’s a different mentality that comes with trying to get to first place in comparison to just trying to wrap up a wildcard spot. Astros need to maintain laser focus if they want to catch the Rangers.
Rangers -1.5 (+115) against the Angels
Betting against the Los Angeles Angels has done wonders for my bank account. It’s hard for me to feel sympathy toward Los Angeles, but I swear they have played a brutal schedule over the last several weeks. They just came off a series loss against Houston, and now they get to go on the road and face Max Scherzer in the Rangers. Scherzer has been solid so far in his first two outings as a member of the Rangers. He may not be the Cy Young front-runner that he was for a solid decade, but he is still a really good starting pitcher, and he’s facing a ball club that just appears to be completely demoralized. Until proven otherwise, I will believe that the Los Angeles Angels are in freefall. I like Mad Max and the Rangers on the run line this evening. They’re looking to bounce back after a tough loss yesterday.
Orioles ML (+120) against Padres
I usually go with a home run prop here, but none of the matchups stood out today. The Orioles have been such a great story this year. Every time that I've believed things were about to go sideways for them, they've done a tremendous job of getting off the mat quickly. They just won a hard-fought series in Seattle against a red-hot Mariners club. Could they be a little bit tired after exchanging blows with the M's? It's possible, but I'm starting to buy into the Grayson Rodriguez hype. We know how good the stuff is, but it seems like he's been able to command it a little bit better over the last month or so, and he also has an offense that's very capable of backing them up. The Padres are by no means a pushover, but given the way they've underachieved this season, it feels like they're going through the motions a little bit. The playoffs are kind of out of reach at this point, pending a miracle. Yu Darvish, while still capable of shutting down a lineup, has been very inconsistent this season. West Coast trips are typically tough for East Coast teams, but the Orioles seem up to the challenge.