22-40-2 (-9 units)
Things are looking up for your boy. Despite the Orioles failing to hold onto their lead against the Phillies, we won our other two bets and went up four units in the process. The Mets covered their -1.5 run line. Pete Alonso went nuts at the dish, and Justin Verlander continues to defy to odds. He will be pitching like an ace well into his 40s. He's still the king. Also, while there are specific teams I've put on my shit list, it seems like I have a pretty good gauge on the San Diego Padres. They're inconsistent as hell, but I've been good at guessing when they're going to get hot and when they'll lay an egg. Last night, we cashed in on another home run prop as Manny Machado went deep. His ownership of Rich Hill continues. But we're onto a new day now. I need to go three for three before I consider myself "red hot," but something special might be brewing. At the very least, things are starting to sizzle. Let's take a good at today's picks.
Rays -1.5 (+135) against the Marlins
I love the value of this one. Sandy Alcantara is on the bump for the Miami Marlins. A year ago, at this time, I would've been all over betting the Marlins because Sandy was dominating Major League hitters. I wrote a blog about this a few weeks ago, but he fell apart this year. The number of innings pitched a year ago has not done him any favors, and he's lost the feel for his changeup. On the other side, you have Zach Eflin, who has quietly been a revelation for the Tampa Bay Rays. He leads all of baseball in wins and WHIP. The Rays are 14-5 in games he's appeared in, whereas the Marlins are 7-13 in games Alcantara has pitched. The Marlins have also been scuffling like crazy post-All-Star break. For the Rays to be +135 as a home favorite is surprising. I had to jump all over it.
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140) against the Cardinals
Again, I'm shocked by the value here. All-Star Game starter Zac Gallen is on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's a tremendous pitcher, but he is at his absolute best when pitching at his home park in Chase Field. In 48 career starts at Chase Field, he is 21-10 with a 2.65 ERA. Jack Flaherty is going for the St. Louis Cardinals. He hasn't been awful this season, but I'm a big believer in team morale, and the St. Louis Cardinals' morale at this point is pretty darn low. The writing is on the wall. They know they're about to be sellers for the first time in forever, and as a team, they grossly underachieved. At this point, Adam Wainwright might not even get to 200 wins. They've also lost four out of five and coughed up another heartbreaker last night, giving up three runs in the eighth inning. I think Gallen shuts them down this evening.
Jose Abreu to homer (+400) against the Rangers
This is the season's biggest game for the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers. The Astros come in only one game back of a Rangers team that's held first place all year. The Astros won the first two games of this series and are looking to make it a sweep. ￼￼José Abreu has had the worst season of his career but has dominated Andrew Heaney in 21 career plate appearances, including four home runs. Abreu's power numbers have been down across-the-board, but when you're talking about going up against a pitcher he has a 1.676 OPS against, I can't turn down the value. I wanted to go Astros straight up on the run line here, but we've been pretty good with our home run props lately, and the data here is solid. Jose is going to go deep to left field.￼