These Jaguars Drive Like A Jaguar
Louis Lopez. Shutterstock Images.Win Total Wednesday is back. Our favorite little tradition on Picks Central is back for Year 2 where we forecast out our best picks regarding Win Totals for the season. Now this was designed to be geared towards College Football given our former big headed host who was also a 2 time Dozen runner up, however someone always gets a little funky (Smitty) and goes NFL so we expanded the rules this year to give out a win total anywhere on the gridiron, but don't be surprised if Smitty figures out a way to skirt the system again.
But nonetheless.. here we go with this year's edition of Win Total Wednesday
My first and best bet is in….
South Alabama Wins Over 7.5 -150
The fast facts are these. This is a team off 10 wins last year, who returns 19 starters including the QB, and was within 1 point of pulling off an upset of UCLA. It's a super solid team on both sides of the ball, and seems to be hitting their stride of building back a program who struggled in the 3 years prior.
What's to like?
Let's start under center…. Senior, QB Carter Bradley threw for 3,343 yards and 28 TD's with only 12 INT. He's experienced and reliable two things I love in a Quarterback. The run game has La'Damian Webb who set the S.Alabama school record with 1063 yards last year. Braylon McReynolds is a solid back up and they add in an Ole Miss transfer. They will be running behind an offensive line with 4 starters back. The top 2 WR's return in Devin Voisin and Caullin Lacy each going for over 800 yards last season.
The defense is rated 8th against the rush and 9th overall via Phil Steele's projections this season. It was 25th overall last year and 3rd against the rush. They held teams to under 100 on the ground last year and might be stronger this year. It's as reliable as it gets. What's the old saying … defense travels? This one could play on Mars and it has the goods either way.
As always the biggest thing here is the schedule. The Jaguars are expected to be double digit favorites in 7 games. They could be favored in as many as 10. The only real concrete loss should be at OK State. For this exercise you should assume Week 1 @Tulane will be a loss, but you can bet your ass I'll be playing S.Alabama on the money line that week because I think they are a very live dog. Either way leaves us with 3 swing games needing just 1 win to hit the over. @ JMU, @ Troy, and vs Marshall. I am pretty confident they will take 1 if not all 3 I need to get to the window. There isn't much to worry about here. The QB is reliable, the run game is solid and the defense is lights out.
I not only think South Alabama Over 7.5 is my favorite win total this year, I'm loving +275 to win the division.
PS- Ev mentioned Oregon St Over 8.5 on Picks Central it's a great bet, and +1200 is worth a sprinkle to win The Pac 12 as well.
Check out all of Picks Central below, and watch every day and see you next week for another Win Total Wednesday.
