Spielberg & Lucas Predicted The EXACT State Of 2023 Cinema Back In 2013

Steven Spielberg on Wednesday predicted an “implosion” in the film industry is inevitable, whereby a half dozen or so $250 million movies flop at the box office and alter the industry forever. What comes next — or even before then — will be price variances at movie theaters, where “you’re gonna have to pay $25 for the next Iron Man, you’re probably only going to have to pay $7 to see Lincoln.” He also said that Lincoln came “this close” to being an HBO movie instead of a theatrical release.

Lucas and Spielberg told USC students that they are learning about the industry at an extraordinary time of upheaval, where even proven talents find it difficult to get movies into theaters. Some ideas from young filmmakers “are too fringe-y for the movies,” Spielberg said. “That’s the big danger, and there’s eventually going to be an implosion — or a big meltdown. There’s going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that’s going to change the paradigm.”

Lucas lamented the high cost of marketing movies and the urge to make them for the masses while ignoring niche audiences. He called cable television “much more adventurous” than film nowadays.

“I think eventually the Lincolns will go away and they’re going to be on television,” Lucas said. “As mine almost was,” Spielberg interjected. “This close — ask HBO — this close.”

Take a look at the biggest box office bombs in history ranked by loss(Adjusted for inflation). 

This doesn't even include some recent ones like this years 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny'  or 'The Flash' which are tracking for a $200,000,000+ losses after marketing costs. And with those in mind, look at how many of these bombs came after 2013. Insane. And the biggest loser in this whole thing is not the studio that loses money, it's us as audience members. Because now movie studios aren't interested in funding the niche projects, mid-budget or original IP movies. They only thing they want is established IP with any sort of existing audience because it secures SOME sort of built-in audience. 

Spielberg was dead on, but Lucas also had a great point. Cable TV(in this case we can lump the streamers in) became WAY more adventurous that movies over the last 10 years which is why TV has really taken over as the spot for prestige content. Studio's don't take risks like they used to, and that risk-averse behavior is backfiring with all the mega-IPs tanking. 

So for the people who complain about hollywood writers, actors etc and how you hate remakes or beating a dead horse, there are only two places you can direct your blame. 

The first is the studios. Professional writers don't want to exclusively write remakes, reboots & franchise properties. They don't want to make some incredibly safe rendition of an IP that makes a studio money. The writers want to make original stuff but the studios only care about making a return to show off a shareholder meeting. So when you wonder why there are no good $30 million dollar comedies like all the great ones of 2000-2015, it's not because funny writers don't exist and it's not because of 'PC' or inclusivity. If you told WB that a movie where the protagonist was a white dude speaking exclusively in slurs would make $500,000,000, they would make a full franchise of them with spin-offs. It's because studios don't want to fund movies that won't have a guaranteed audience and probable big ROI. 

The second group to blame is audiences themselves. Part of the reason that studios don't want to take the risk on something that isn't a mega-budget blockbuster IP is that people just won't go to see a mid-level movie unless it has insane word of mouth. 90% of the people you will see complaining about remakes have not been to a theater for a movie that cost less than $100,000,000 to make in the last 5 years. They wait for those movies to go to streaming where a lot of them get a second life (which is part of the reason the writers are on strike since they don't earn squat from stuff they wrote from the streamers). 

Anywhere, that is my required movie rant of the week since everyone is doing it. Movie theaters rock and if you disagree you're a fucking bozo.