My System For Picking The Home Run Derby Winner Worked Last Year. Let's Do It Again

Last year, I picked up a rare dub with my Home Run Derby pick when I went with Juan Soto to take home the title. I came in with a very specific criteria, and it actually worked. Well, we're going to run it back this year. I love the MLB All-Star Game and the Home Run Derby, especially since they changed the format back in 2015. It's hard to predict, but my science was pretty damn tight last year. Let's run it back again. I have three main things that I look for. 

1- Max exit velocity 

This is the Home Run Derby. You're going to be served exclusively meatballs. That's why I pay more attention to max exit velocity than average exit velocity. This tournament is designed for you to hit some fucking taters. Everyone who has won this tournament since the format changed in 2015 has had a maximum exit velocity in the 86th percentile or above. In this case, that doesn't narrow down the field that much. Based on my criteria, Mookie Betts is the only hitter in the tournament without a maximum exit velocity in the 86th percentile or above, so he's eliminated from contention. He's even said he thinks he has no shot, so it's pretty easy to take him out of title consideration.

2- Numbers at T-Mobile Park

I know it's the Derby, and the Derby is designed for you to rake, but being familiar with a park does give you a psychological advantage in this tournament. Juan Soto won this thing last year and came in with fantastic numbers at Dodgers Stadium. Mookie Betts has been eliminated as he did not meet the max exit velo threshold. Pete Alonso has never played a game at T-Mobile Park. Julio Rodriguez leads the way in terms of sample size. He owns a .848 OPS at his home park. Luis Robert, Adley Rutschman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and Adolis Garcia have all put up rather pedestrian numbers in Seattle (sample sizes may vary). I can't remove Pete Alonso from this criteria as he hasn't played any games in Seattle, but I'm removing Luis Robert, Adley, Vladdy Jr, and Adolis Garcia from the equation based on my criteria. That scares me a bit. The Home Run Derby is essentially batting practice, and few players look better taking BP than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but at the same time, he's had some difficulty finding his power stroke this year. Maybe he will find it tonight, but I have to eliminate him based on my criteria.

3- Storylines

We're down to three hitters- Pete Alonso, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena. Last year, Juan Soto won the Derby weeks before getting traded. The microscope was on him, and he delivered. Pete Alonso won it during his historic rookie season. I love Randy Arozarena, but the narratives aren't there for him. Alonso is attempting to win his third Home Run Derby, and Julio Rodriguez is trying to win it at his home ballpark, which is something that has happened before (Todd Frazier in 2015). J-Rod winning would be a cooler storyline, but he isn't having a very good year this year, and his power numbers are down. Anything can happen, but I have a hard time picking someone with a .721 OPS to win the Derby. Alonso has had his struggles, but when he hits, he hits for power. He also has shown multiple times that he takes this very seriously. The field is wide open, but my pick is Alonso.

Enjoy the show, everybody!