Let's Hunt Some Overs Following America's Birthday

RECORD

7-8 (-0.5 units)

We had another 2-1 day yesterday. Mike Moustakas didn't deliver against the Padres, but Jean Segura reached base twice (in the future, betting against Adam Wainwright may be the way to go). The Guardians, despite ANOTHER blown save by Emmanuel Clase, rallied in extra innings and beat the Atlanta Braves, which is something few teams have been able to do over the last month or so. We're not 6-3 over our last night. Let's keep the positive vibes up and look at today's picks.

Braves/Guardians over 10 (-107)

This one stood out right away. You have Mike Soroka on the mound for the Braves (1-1 with a 6.89 ERA) going up against Cal Quantrill (2-5 6.18 ERA). Given the way the Braves have played over the last month, the Braves may get to 10 runs on their own. Mike Soroka is facing a subpar lineup in Cleveland. Soroka has had the worst injury luck on any pitcher in baseball since 2019, but his stuff has dramatically diminished over the last several years. It's only been three starts, but opponents are putting up a .939 OPS against him this season. I expect that to continue today. The Braves offense could rally behind him. Either way, I like the over.

Blue Jays/White Sox over 9 (-113)

The value here isn't staggering, but I was stunned at how low the run total is. Lance Lynn is pitching for the White Sox. He's been a gas can this year, posting a 6.47 ERA in 17 starts. He currently leads the American League in hits allowed, earned runs, and home runs given up. He's going up against an inconsistent offense, but the Blue Jays are still top-heavy, and they're playing in a park where the ball flies. On the other side, Jose Berrios has been much better than he was in his disastrous 2022 campaign. He has a lot of experience pitching against AL Central teams (he came up with the Twins), and he's posted a 5.07 ERA in 12 career starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. I trust the numbers here. This should be a slugfest.

Angels/Padres over 8 (-118)

The Los Angeles Angels are about as close to dead as a baseball team gets at this point. Mike Trout will be out for a while, and the team is sliding. They're 1-6 over their last 7. The Padres have also been a dead team walking for a minute. But offensively, they've started to wake up over the last several games. They've scored 18 runs over the last two games against this Angels pitching staff, and they're facing a pitcher tonight in Patrick Sandoval, who has struggled a lot. Sandoval was a bright spot for the Angels last year, but he has taken a massive step back in 2023, posting an abysmal 7.11 ERA since the calendar turned to June. 

I don't look for themes whenever I make my picks. I research, look at the numbers, and go with what I think will most likely hit. I didn't come in today looking to hammer overs, but the data supports my picks. I'm usually a pitching guy. I like low scoring games, just not today.

All odds come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Follow Barstool Baseball on all platforms, including our YouTube page.