My Dark Horse To Beat Joey Chestnut In Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
Upset on Coney Island?
Look, I'm not saying I think Joey Chestnut is going to lose. The racing graph above shows how dominant this dude is at his sport. It's unlike anything else. But if you want to bet your house on him in order to pay for a roman candle and a package of sparklers for the night be my guest. I'm looking for a fun play that has a Pidgeon's chance flying over the fireworks of shocking the world. I've been studying the wienterlytics and I just might have found something.
Geoffrey Esper is the betting favorite outside of Chestnut. But I'm not talking about him. In fact, when asked about his chances of winning this year, Esper replied "only if Chestnut doesn't show up". Esper's been around long enough. We know who he is. He's got 50 dogs in him tops. We need a wild card play here. And we'll have to strangely look both Down Under and up to the stars to find him. I'm talking about the second year Aussie contestant James Webb, who will be viewed as a long shot to take the mustard colored belt.
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I blogged about the full history of the Nathan's hot dog eating contest a few days ago replete with all the wienerlytics. The biggest takeaway is that contestants make a majority of their year-over-year improvements within the first two or three years of Nathans Hot Dog Eating Contest.
The graph below backs this up by showing a plumped up line for contestants first three years followed by a skinny line of the same color there after. Kobayashi and Matt Stonie were really the only ones that broke out after year three, but the rest of the biggest names in this competition - including Joey Chestnut - only improved marginally after their third year.
That's why I think Esper is a bad pivot from Chestnut chalk. But enter James Webb who comes into year two ready to stick some serious meat in his mouth. Of all the big names that have stood over the splash zone on Coney Island, only Takeru Kobayashi ate more dogs in his first year. Not even Joey ate more. If Webb can make a Chestnut-esque launch in year two or a Tim "Eater X" in year three - he can put himself in serious contention.
But Wienertyltics isn't everything. I've been watching a lot of James Webb film on YouTube to get to know him better and it's apparent this guy can take in galaxies worth of Milky Ways through the aperture on his face.
Webb also recently quit his job to go pro in major league eating. So it's hard to believe his new devotion to training won't give him BIG gains in year two. He said he's looking to hit 50 dogs. I think that's an understatement. And if history has something to say about that - his next dot on the graph will do what James Webb's tend to do and lift off into outer space. I think 55-60 dogs is a realistic ceiling. Chestnut took down 32 in his first year followed by 52 in year two. If Webb can improve by 20 from his first year that'll put him at 61.
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That's best case scenario. Webb still has to hope Joey continues his decline from 76 in 2021 to 63 last year. And quite frankfurtly, the wienerlytics don't suggest an age cliff exists to explain the now 39-year old Chestnut's decline. Many others at more advanced hot dog eating ages have maintained their personal averages or even improved.
So yeah - that's why James Webb is being viewed like the Celtics winning the series against Miami after being down 0-3. Sure that didn't happen, but you get the point. It almost did. Which is why I'm picking the immortal Chestnut to go down. I'm going for this!
I know no one's going to listen, so I just ask one thing after the last dog is downed on Coney Island. When this is all said and done - please be kind and share your roman candle and sparklers with me.
- Jeffro