The Astros Are Heating Up, The Braves Keep Mashing, And Domingo German Is Set To Make His First Start After Perfection

RECORD

3-6 (-2.9 units)

The record still isn't excellent, but we got the vibes back yesterday, going 2-1. Jose Abreu had a monster game but sadly didn't go deep. Besides that, the Braves pulled away late, covering on the run line, and the Mets and Giants got into a very predictable slugfest, hitting over nine runs total with relative ease. Like I said yesterday, there's no reason to panic. The logic and reasoning are sound. Let's jump into today's picks.

Astros/Rangers over 9.5 runs (+100)

I usually pay a lot of attention to pitcher vs. batter matchups, but having watched both these starting pitchers (Cristian Javier and Martin Perez) recently, something about them seems slightly off. Perez has been serviceable this year as a fourth starter for the Rangers, but his pitch data is pretty ugly. Javier has shown himself capable of shutting down a lineup, but his velocity and spin rate have been down over his last two starts. He's given up ten earned runs over his previous two outings. The Rangers have been a lethal offense all year, and Houston's is starting to heat up. I like the over.

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Braves -1.5 (+107) against the Guardians

I expect the Braves to be favored in almost every game the rest of the way, but considering how hot they've been, +107 seems like pretty good value. All-Star Bryce Elder is pitching for the Braves. He's been fantastic this year. His pitch data isn't great, but even if he lays an egg, the Braves offense is on a next-level heater right now. They're coming from a three-game series in which they set a franchise record for most home runs hit in a three-game set with eleven. Gavin Williams has shown promise with the Guardians, but he's making only his third career start. I think Atlanta feasts.

Orioles -1.5 (+148) against the Yankees

I like the value here. Domingo German is on the mound for the Yankees, making his first start since his perfect game. He's coming off the best start of his life, but I can't help but wonder if his mental clock has been thrown off just a bit with all the excitement that comes with being perfect. While his last outing was historical, he'd given up 15 earned runs in his previous two starts. You have Tyler Wells going for the Orioles, who has been far and away the Orioles best starter this season. The Yankees lineup without Aaron Judge is inconsistent at best and incompetent at worst. Wells leads baseball in WHIP. I expect him to keep the Yankees off the bath paths today. 

All odds come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Follow Barstool Baseball on all platforms, including our YouTube page.