Monday Rap: Finau Closes (Again), Rahm Breaks Money Record And Golf's Version of Ball Don't Lie

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Golf might be the hardest sport to predict. The margins between the best players in the world are so slim they're essentially non-existent, and guys don't have the opportunity to directly impact the play of a competitor like they do in team sports or boxing or tennis. A golf tournament is, in theory, every player taking the same 72-hole test with a ton of randomness and variability and luck factored in. The guy who navigates the test best wins the tournament, and there are perhaps 50 guys capable of doing that. Get all the best players in the world together and the "favorite" is rarely given better than 7-to-1 odds to win the event. 

This week's Vidanta Mexico Open, however, was different. You had two players head and shoulders ahead of the rest. At least on paper. Jon Rahm is the finest golfer in the world, the reigning Masters champion, the games' alpha male. Tony Finau has blossomed into a proper closer in what can only be described as a true plot twist. Those two were the highest-ranked players in the field by a wide margin—after Finau's pre-tournament ranking of No. 16, the highest-ranked player in the field was world No. 50 Alex Noren. Rahm entered the week as a +290 favorite, one of the shortest numbers you'll ever see for a player in a full-field event (and in the non-prime Tiger Woods category) Finau was +850. Next-closest was Wyndham Clark at +2100. 

But again, that's just on paper. Very seldom does that actual tournament reflect what the algorithms forecasted. This was one of those times. Finau and Rahm played their way into the final group alongside Akshay Bhatia, the charismatic 21-year-old who spurned college golf to turn professional at 17 and has already won on the Korn Ferry Tour. Bhatia faded from contention playing alongside two Ryder Cuppers—more than understandable—and a charge from Brandon Wu expired with a double-bogey at the 10th. That left Finau and Rahm as the last two standing, turning Sunday's back-nine into…drumroll please…a match-play situation. Only they weren't both starting from zero—Finau held a three-shot lead standing on the 10th tee, knowing the game's premier player was coming for him. And he never blinked. 

Finau shot a bogey-free, five-under 66 to win the Vidanta Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta, a course designed by Greg Norman, because you just can't escape the War of the Tours these days. It's his sixth win on the PGA Tour but, more importantly, his fifth in the last 280 days. In hindsight, the back-nine 30 he shot at Liberty National in the 2021 Northern Trust, in front of zero fans, changed the entire path of his career. It got him into a playoff with Cameron Smith, who promptly handed the title to Tony with a block-slice that plopped into the murky Jersey City waters. Finau has always been tapped as one of the game's most naturally gifted players, a 6'4" athlete who makes this most vexing game look impossibly simple. The guy only takes the club back to about waist-high and swings at 80 percent—it almost looks more like a flick than a swing—and still can move it out there as far as anyone. And he's been an elite iron player for a half-decade now. Still, before that back nine in New Jersey, you couldn't talk about Tony Finau without getting into the why doesn't he ever win? conversation. That's no longer a relevant topic, as he's added four more since that 2021 Northern Trust. 

"I learned a lot in those (near-misses)," Finau said Monday. "On Sunday out here I've learned that you just have to be aggressive, you have to make birdies. Guys are going to make birdies. There's so many great players, especially someone of Rahmbo's stature, Brandon Wu played amazing today. So you've got some of these guys that can go on these birdie runs.

"So my mindset on Sundays I think has just changed. You never get comfortable with the lead. That's my nature anyway is to be an aggressive player. I always have been that way and so Sundays are starting to shape up better for me since I've been in contention, but I think I just have learned a lot."

A win is a win. Still, we can't ignore that Finau's Ws have come on easier-than-average PGA Tour layouts. The average winning score of Finau's five recent victories is 20.6 under par, and his winning total Sunday came in at 24 deep. These aren't exactly major-championship quality layouts that he's dominating at. And after a really strong stretch at the majors between 2018-2021, when he posted nine top-10 finishes in 13 starts, Finau's failed to finish in the top 10 in seven consecutive major championships. 

Such is the plight of a player with a resume like Finau's—our unending fascination with and increased emphasis on major championships have made them the locus of measurement for any top player's career. A guy wins six times on the PGA Tour and all anyone wants to know is when he'll win a major championship. 

Finau, it should be noted, doesn't seem to concerned with any of that. A PGA Tour employee spotted him caddieing for his many children—there are five, and a fun game to play with friends is which one looks most like Tony?—at the resort's par 3 course just hours after hoisting the trophy. 

The golfers…they are rich

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Jon Rahm's historic season continues full-steam ahead. The big, hairy, Spanish winning machine opted to defend his title in Mexico (a $7.7 million purse) but take off this week's Wells Fargo Championship, a designated event with a $20 million purse. That says a few things about the world No. 1. First, he takes pride in showing up to a defend a title, a long-standing tradition across world golf. Second, he's not exactly low on cash. 

With his solo second in Mexico, Rahm has now made $14,465,840 in official money for the season. (This is the number that contributes to the all-time money list, and it does not include FedEx Cup bonuses). That's a new PGA Tour record. And he set it before May 1. 

Now, as mentioned previously, Rahm's absolutely on a historic pace. He has four wins and a major by May 1, and he has seven top-four finishes in 11 starts this year. But it's not like his current season is head-and-shoulders above any other season. The main reason for the new record: this is an entirely new, and very rich, era in professional golf. Last season, the PGA Tour had just one tournament with a $20 million purse, the Players Championship, and just nine others with a purse of at least $10 million. This season saw the Players purse increase to $25 million, the Sentry Tournament of Champions move from $8.2 million to $15 million and six other designated events rise to $20 million purses. It's just a much, much more lucrative time to be playing good golf, and Rahm is playing the best golf. At 28 years old, he's already 12th in all-time PGA tour earnings. 

The craziest part is how much lucrative golf there is left to be played. Despite skipping this week, Rahm still has on his plate: the $20 million Memorial (with a $3.6 million check for the winner), a tournament he's won once and would've one twice had he not tested positive for COVID; the U.S. Open, which led the majors with a $17.5 million purse in '22 and will likely bump it to $20 million; the $20 million Travelers Championship, the Open Championship, which will likely be around $15 million; the $20 million FedEx St. Jude Championship; the $20 million BMW Championship; plus whatever bonus he receives from the FedEx Cup. He could well end the season well over $20 million in official earnings and, assuming he wins the FedEx Cup, he could take home $40 million dollars on-course. That doesn't include his myriad endorsements, including Callaway, Mercedes, Rolex and Blue Yonder, to name a few. 

He's not the only one eating good. Scottie Scheffler's at $12.5 million for the year, well on track to break his previous record from last season. There are 10 players who've made at least $5 million this season; just 17 reached that number for the entirety of 2021-22. 

It's impossible to ignore LIV Golf's role in this development, and their golfers are similarly racking up the cash. Talor Gooch just became the first back-to-back winner on the rival circuit, holding off Brooks Koepka and Sergio Garcia to back up his W in the Adelaide event with a victory Singapore. LIV events pay their winners $4 million, which means Gooch has earned $8 million over the last two weeks. Gooch has made $9.89 million in five events on the LIV tour this season, almost as much as the $10.1 million he made over eight events last year. 

Rahm and Phil Mickelson have always been tight—Mickelson's brother Tim recruited and coached Rahm at ASU and acted as his agent before replacing Jim 'Bones' Mackay on Lefty's bag. When Rahm turned pro, Mickelson told anyone who'd listen that Rahm was already one of the 10 best players in the world and was a surefire world No. 1. Rahm refused to speak negatively about Mickelson when that was a popular thing to do last year. And one could argue that Mickelson's maneuvering to get LIV off the ground has resulted in Rahm becoming a much, much richer man. Friends helping out friends. 

Golf's version of ball don't lie

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In last week's Monday Rap we discussed the silly penalty handed out to six players on the Korn Ferry Tour. They rode in a shuttle—or, in other words, a golf cart—they shouldn't have and were eached docked two strokes despite having zero intention of breaking any rule. It was, in the words of Alan from the Hangover, a classic mixup. One of those players was Alejandro Tosti, who finished a very solid T22 despite the setback. 

Tosti then headed from Florida to Mexico for this week's Vidanta Mexico Open. He'd earned a spot by being the top Latin American player across three Korn Ferry Events in Latin America last year (Colombia, Panama, Chile). It was a great opportunity for the 26-year-old Argentinian to get some reps against PGA Tour-competition, even if it did come against a weaker field. It also presented a unique opportunity because the Vidanta Mexico Open marked the first non-designated event that would reward its top 10 finishers with a spot in the following week's designated event, the Wells Fargo Championship. The reason: Wells Fargo has bigger field than any of the previous designated events, made possible by the longer days in May. 

Tosti seized that opportunity, firing a seven-under 64—including a back-nine 31—to finish T10 earn $179k, more than double his $84k earnings thus far on the Korn Ferry Tour. It also nabbed him a spot at Quail Hollow, where he'll get to tee it up against many of the world's best in a tournament with a $20 million purse. That's golf's version of Ball Don't Lie. 

It's also a preview of what's to come next season. The designated events will include the best players from the previous run-up of non-designated events, giving a hot player an opportunity to ride the wave and making sure the fields include not just the highest-ranked player, but the guys in the best form. 

"I'm not worried about it," Tosti said of the exemption after his round Sunday. "if it's meant to happen, it's going to happen. I'm happy that I'm able to have the opportunity to show my game at this level. This is only my third start and I know I have a lot to improve, but I know I belong to this level."

Elsewhere…

—A true statistical oddity at the Mexico Open. Last year, the top three players on the leaderboard were Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Brandon Wu. This year, the top three players on the leaderboard were Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Brandon Wu. 

—Gooch's victory in Singapore came over a surging Brooks Koepka, who should be among the favorites in two week's time at the PGA Championship at Oak Hill. He's now gone WIN, T2, T3 in his last three events. 

—Phil Mickelson held a share of the lead in the LIV event on Friday but faded hard with a one-over final round to finish T11. Still, there were enough signs to suggest the week at Augusta wasn't a total fluke, and he might've been on to something when he kept insisting he was about to go on a run. 

—Pablo Larrazabal won the DP World Tour event this past week, the Korea Championship. It didn't have any juice at all. Hardly any fans, hardly any players whose names you'd recognize. This week's DPWT event is the DS Automobiles Italian Open, which is being held at the same Marco Simone GC that will host the Ryder Cup, and the highest-ranked player in the field is No. 66 Victor Perez. It's hard not to see the future of the DPWT as bleak. 

—Hannah Green beat Xiyu Lin and Aditi Ashok in a playoff to win the JM Eagle LA Championship at Wilshire Country Club. 

—The top two players in the world are skipping this week's designated event, as is their right given they've played all of them thus far. That's not the case for Rory McIlroy, who skipped the season-opening Sentry Tournament of Champions and then decided not to play the RBC Heritage after missing the cut at the Masters. He'll surely be asked about his absence this week. I'll do it myself if I have to. 

—Bhatia's also in the field this week. With 261 points, he leads non-suspended members in the non-member FedEx Cup points list. (In first place are Phil Mickelson and Brooks Koepka, from their T2s at the Masters). Last year it took around 330 points to finish in the top 125, which means Bhatia would need about 70 more to get his card through the non-member points route. 

Until next time,

Dan