I Live By 3 Rules When It Comes To The NFL Draft: 1) The CJ Spiller Rule, 2) The Josh Allen Rule, and 3) The Chase Young Rule
Shutterstock Images.
I used to be obsessed with the NFL Draft. Like, Steven Cheah levels obsessed, but actually good at it. I joke, I kid. Predicting the NFL Draft is wildly stupid. It's amazing to me people take mock drafts seriously and don't just view them as entertainment. I still get hyped for the draft every year- I love the leaks, the rumors, the mind games the GMs play. And I especially love the instant reactions where we get to judge a team's draft and give them grades based off basically nothing. It's all so stupid but so fun.
That being said, when it comes to drafting players, I believe in 3 rules that every GM/front office should follow. They are: 1) The CJ Spiller Rule, and 2) The Josh Allen Rule, and the newest addition to the club, 3) The Chase Young Rule. Let me explain:
1) The CJ Spiller Rule
I stand by this scorching hot take and will stand by it until the day I die- CJ Spiller could have been the best RB in NFL history. Everyone has a take like this, and mine is for CJ Spiller, the RB out of Clemson who the Bills took 9th overall in the 2010 draft. He had everything you want in a RB- size, skill, speed, ball catching ability, vision, everything. But he never panned out in Buffalo, as he mostly just backed up Fred Jackson.
So what is this rule? You can add Trent Richardson, Saquon, and a bunch of other 1st round RBs to this list- as good as the RB is in college, you can't use a first round pick on them. There are just too many solid RBs out there, and as we all know, they have the shortest careers out of anyone. You might be thinking "yeah but what about a guy like Christian McCaffrey"…sorry, you gotta pass on him. I mean shit, he was traded last season!
This rule is why when asked if Washington should draft Bijan Robinson at 16, I have to say no. I'd rather have a solid OT for 10 years than a Bijan Robinson for 5. It's super unfortunate because have an electric player like Bijan would do wonders for the offense, but at what cost? There are plenty of RBs who pop up out of thin air every single season, 7th round and undrafted guys, who dominate the league. I'm a staunch No RB in the First Round believer.
2) The Josh Allen Rule
To be honest, this rule could have been named after a ton of people. Shit, it could even be named the Patrick Mahomes Rule. Or on the flip side, the Jamarcus Russell Rule. Or the Mitch Trubisky Rule You picking up what I'm putting down? The fact of the matter is, GMs and scouts spend 16 hours a day for a year straight analyzing the QBs in the draft, and they still get it wrong CONSTANTLY. It's a crapshoot and they are just hoping to hit on the right QB at the right time.
Advertisement
But I call it the Josh Allen Rule because in recent memory, I can't recall a more polarizing first round QB that panned out. He was inaccurate as hell playing against very mid competition in college, but the Bills still decided to roll the dice on him at 7th overall, while the more safe Josh Rosen was still on the board. And Josh Allen has panned out way better than most everyone could have ever dreamed. If you can honestly sit there and say you saw this sort of career coming, you should be in an NFL war room right now.
This is the same draft where Baker went number 1 overall, and I don't blame the Browns for that either. Because this rule is "If there's a QB on the board you like, take him." To win in the NFL you need a very good quarterback, and until you have one of those, you probably ain't winning a Super Bowl. A QB can change a franchise around in a heartbeat, just look at what Joe Burrow has done for the Bengals. The reason I like to use Josh Allen as the example here is because of the current discussion about Anthony Richardson. A guy with every physical trait you want in the world, but nobody is sure how he will pan out at the next level. But guess what? If he's there at 16, I think you GOTTA roll the dice on him. If he doesn't work out, c'est la vie. A ton of QBs don't work out…remember we were just talking about Baker and Rosen? And how Mahomes with 10th in the same draft Trubisky went 2nd…while a RB in Leonard Fournette went 4th??? It all comes together, it's beautiful.
Somehow every year things like this shoulddddd be obvious, and it's easy to say it in retrospect with 20/20 hindsight, but in the moment nobody has a damn clue. So if you're a franchise that doesn't have THE GUY, swing for the fences. You don't want to be the team that passes over Josh Allen.
Which leads us to rule #3…
3) The Chase Young Rule
This one hurts a lot and is the newest rule to the rule book. Chase Young was about as can't-miss as far as an NFL talent goes. When Washington got the 2nd overall pick in the 2020 draft it was like "holy shit, we are getting Chase Young". A new face of the franchise, a dominant DE who would beat the shit out of Dak and Daniel Jones for years to come. A true cornerstone defensive player that put the fear of god into the opponent we hadn't seen in Washington since Sean Taylor.
So while Joe Burrow went #1 to Cincy, it wasn't the end of the world to take Chase #2. SIGH. Sure he had a freak injury, but today Washington decided not to pick up his 5th year option. His ceiling is still sky high, but it's just another case of taking the wrong guy, or so it seems right now.
Much like Bradley Chubb in 2018 (Broncos #5 overall, 2 picks before Josh Allen), Myles Garrett and Solomon Thomas in 2017 (Browns #1 and SF #3 in 2017, when Mahomes went 10th), and Jadeveon Clowney in 2015 (#1 overall to the Texans when Blake Bortles was taken at 3…) and many other top defensive ends, taking one of these freak EDGE guys over a QB has not panned out.
Yes, an EDGE guy can be disruptive but this rule goes back to rule #2…
Advertisement
I'm being slightly results oriented here, but UGH. Tua and Herbert sitting there and we took Chase. And I love Chase. But you NEED a QB to win in this league. Best player available only works if you have a QB on the team already who can take you to the Super Bowl. It's why the Cardinals took Kyler #1 overall the year after they took Rosen #10. Don't draft a DE in the top 5 if you aren't secure at QB. Don't draft a RB, don't draft a freak EDGE guy, go QB, QB, QB, QB, QB until you have one. And sub-rule: when in doubt, take an OT.
That's actually rule #4- don't take a tweener LB/DE/ATH/Hybrid, just take a tackle out of the SEC.
When listed out like this, the NFL Draft seems pretty easy, right? Don't waste a high pick on a RB, draft QBs until you find one, and don't draft a DE if you don't have a QB. And then everything else falls into place. The Bengals are the best example- Burrow 2020, Ja'Marr Chase 2021, and then they went to the Super Bowl.
Good luck to your team this draft, don't fuck it up!