Patriots 2023 Draft Preview: Edge

Current roster: Matthew Judon, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Deatrich Wise, Jr., DeMarcus Mitchell, Sam Roberts

Positional overview: After looking at three different offensive spots, it's time to look to the other side of the line of scrimmage. And in doing so, state up front that edge defender isn't necessarily the highest priority at the moment, but it's one of those positions where you can never be too rich. Like every other franchise, this one is never not looking for their next good one. But unlike most of the others, their needs are very specific. 

I say this every year, but it's as relevant now as it ever. The definition of edge defender has changed as the league has evovled to more base nickel with six man fronts. We've blurred the line that used to clearly mark the border between a 3-4 defensive end and a true 4-3 outside linebacker, thus creating the term edge. 

But the requirements haven't changed in New England. The Belichick & Sons defense still employs the "6-4, 4-6" rule of thumb. Meaning players who are 6-4 or bigger, 4.6 or faster. Ish. Rob Ninkovich was listed as 6-2, but played at 260 pounds and had long arms for disrupting passing lanes. Judon is 6-3, but massive at 275 pounds. But say, a Melvin Ingram, good as he is, is a cog that would simply never fit into the gears of this finely tuned piece of engineering. 

There is also no place for a pass rush specialist here. A guy who spent his college career getting off his block and getting after the passer every down won't function in this system until he can learn to set an edge in the running game, get to the level of a running quarterback and contain him (i.e. not get caught upfield and out of the play) and occasionally drop into coverage on curls and flats. Even Judon, who is arguably playing as well on the outside of the Pats front as well as anyone since a pre-restaurant assault Willie McGinest, dropped into coverage on 73 of his 553 passing snaps last year. The point being that there will be some very highly regarded prospects in this year's class who will for all intents and purposes off the Patriots board unless they're true value picks. With that in mind, here are the top dozen or so edge player in an overall very good 2023 draft. Again, I'm going with the Mock Draft Database for where they're expected to come off the board:

Mortal Lock 1st Rounders:

Will Anderson Jr., Alabama. 6-foot-3 1/2, 253 pounds, 4.60 40-time

This frigging guy. He spent more time on the opposition's side of the line as the back judge. As a true freshman, he led the nation with 60 pressures. In 2021, he upped that number to 82, with 17.5 sacks to go along with 31 TFLs. For his career, that would be 207 pressures, which is 55 more than anyone else, and 37 sacks, which is 10 more, making him the Pass Rushing Gretzky. Nick Saban lined him up all across the formation, from wide-9 to 5-technique and some 4-shade, where he overpowered more guards than Dwayne Johnson and Ryan Reynolds in Red Notice. (I'm guessing that will register with about 5% of you, but it stays in.) Still he's universally regarded as someone who'll move outside in the pros. And go very, very soon in the draft. In short, he's this year's Aidan Hutchinson. 

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: DeMarcus Ware

Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech. 6-6, 271 lbs, 4.71

As you can probably assume from his measurables, Wilson is the best tackler in this group, a relentless pursuer who seeks and destroys whomever and whatever is in front of him. He's played traditional defensive end in a 3-point stance and traditional OLB in a 2-point. And even though he was in a rotation at Texas Tech, he still managed 50 pressures and eight sacks. What you can probably also assume is the basic physics of a guy his size limits his movement, so he lacks that quick-twitch burst or the ability to catch a lot of guys from behind, relying instead on winning the strength advantage on every snap. For that reason, he'll go high. But despite the fact the Patriots held a private workout for him, he isn't a fit in New England. (A sentence I'll regret putting my name to if somehow he falls to them.)

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: Ezekiel Ansah

Myles Murphy, Clemson. 6-5, 268 lbs, 4.71

Murphy is arguably the most freakish athlete in this group, with a get-off burst at the snap, the balance to get under tackles' pads and turn the corner, and the power to go right over them, the quick stride to split double teams, and the straight line quickness to pursue ballcarriers from the back side. If there's a knock on him, it's that he hasn't refined his bag of tricks yet, moves and counter moves for when he's initially stopped. But still. With almost 100 career pressures to go with all that raw ability, he's not going to sit around the hall that Thursday night waiting to hear his name called for long.

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: Bradley Chubb

Lukas Van Ness, Iowa. 6-5, 272 lb, 4.58

Van Ness is another prospect the Pats held a private workout with. Though unlike Wilson, he fits the profile on Belichick's Christian Mingle account to a tee. Including satisfying his 3-Cone Drill fetish with a scorching time for a guy his size of 7.02. He's arguably the most versatile guy in this group, playing primarily on the edge but as far inside as 1-technique nose tackle in the C-G gap, and head up on guards at 2-tech, depending on the situation. (Think what the Pats do with Wise.) He combines a power pass rush with run-stuffing ability. And it's easy to picture him as the lone down lineman when the Patriots go to that bunch of guys standing around doing nothing State Worker front on obvious passing downs. A high motor guy with the ability to turn the corner on outside rushes but also defeat double teams in limited space. 

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: Justin Smith

Nolan Smith, Georgia. 6-2, 238 lbs, 4.39

This is no knock on Smith. And by all means, Belichick is attracted to Georgia Bulldogs the way young, childless couples love rescue dogs. But if they use a 1st rounder on him, than everything I think I know is wrong. His speed is insane. He can drop into coverage and outrun ballcarriers to either side of the formation. He's a four year player. Not to size-shame anyone, but he's simply too small and lacking in power at the point of attack to fit what they're looking for. Teams would run at him, and the Pats would have to stack him behind a lineman as Georgia did. He'll be fine elsewhere. But it won't be Foxboro. 

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: K'Lavon Chason

Borderline 1st/2nd Rounder:

Will McDonald IV, Iowa State. 6-4, 239 lbs, 4.67

Some publications consider McDonald to be the best pure pass rusher in his class. Though as long as Anderson doesn't decide to just go become a gamer or an influencer or something instead, that's a big claim to make. Still, he could become the best IV since that Star Trek movie with the whales. He's less an overpowering rusher than he's someone with a refined, varied set of different moves and the athleticism to shed blocks. Particularly using his arms, which have the wingspan of the Spruce Goose. In his five seasons for the Cyclones, he managed 127 pressures and finished off 35 of those with sacks. A unique prospect to be sure. But pundits are all over the map as to where and when he's going. 

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: Leonard Floyd

2nd Rounders You and Your Autocorrect Will Be Fighting About:

Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State. 6-3, 255 lbs, 4.71

Anudike-Uzomah was the Big 12 DPOTY last year, despite putting up bigger numbers the season before, with 11 sacks and 14.5 TFL. He's played some inside, including head up on the center. But he's primarily an edge rusher, with a preposterously low center of gravity for such a big guy, that enables him to get low and under a tackle's pads while maintaining his balance. He can get anchored against bigger tackles and needs to get better at turning outside runs inside. But there's plenty of time for him to get bigger and better, as he's only 21.

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: Jermaine Johnson

Adetomiwa Adebawore, Northwestern. 6-2, 282 lbs, 4.49

There aren't many athletes like Adebawore. And by "not many," I mean zero, as he is the fastest guy in the history of the Lucas Oil Olympics over 280 pounds. He's also short and thicc, though with long arms for a guy his size to help him play bigger. The question is what he is exactly. A small 3-4 end? A huge outside backer? All of the above? None? The things that everyone agrees on is that he's tough to defend, uses his speed in open space, and his RPMs are always on the red line. And when you get the chance to take a guy this unique in the middle of Round 2, you take it and see what you can do with that skillset.

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: Osa Odighizuwa

Big Program Guys for the Bargain Shoppers:

BJ Ojulari, LSU. 6-2, 248 lbs, 4.59

Ojulari's production went up each of his three seasons at LSU, making First Team All-SEC last year. And he cracked 100 in both pressures and total tackles for his career. He's a smallish guy who uses his size to his advantage to slip blocks the way, say Von Miller always has. With a polished rush game and a quality assortment of moves in his bag. He was also moved inside as an A-Gap blitzer on 3rd downs quite a bit, but was primarily out wide in 9-tech. In the right system, he's a plug-and-play Week 1 defender, even if it's limited at first to just obvious passing downs.

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: Azeez Ojulari (That is, if BJ doesn't mind being compared to his older brother, which is always an insult when it happens to me.)

Keion White, Georgia Tech. 6-5, 285 lbs, 4.80

White started out at Old Dominion, playing tight end, which is the preferred position of superior all-around athletes who aren't sure quite who they are as they figure it out. Think of tight end as the Liberal Arts major of football. And he did find himself, obviously. He's got a lot of developing to do still, as you'd imagine from someone who lost so much time to learning how to block and run routes. But for now he gets by on his his size, strength, and explosive punch to get blockers on their back haunches and generate space to blow around them. He also has a tendency to play high and get moved off the point of attack. But there's a lot to work with for a team willing to give a rookie time to figure it out. 

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: John Frankling-Myers

Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame. 6-5, 264 lbs, 4.58

Foskey is a specimen who used his length, power and speed to finish fourth in the nation with 12 sacks. He's got long arms that come in mighty handy for keeping blockers from locking in on him so he can shed and pursue. And he's got the Cobra Kai punch to strike first, strike hard, and show no mercy. All that said, the reason he's not projected higher is that he had a tendency to get engaged against bigger blockers, not escape, and get lost in the wash, without the moves to counter. With a little coaching and a few more pounds on his frame, he's got as much upside as anyone we've discussed. But then again, there's always the possibility he's just another overhyped Fighting Irish in the mold of Manti Te'o. 

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: Yannick Ngakoue

Small School Stud:

Andre Carter II, Army. 6-6 1/2, 256 lbs, 4.58

First things first: Carter II is not the son of the Andre Carter who pulled two tours of duty in New England, racking up 10 sacks in 2011 before cashing in with the Raiders. According to Google, he's the son of the Andre Carter who worked for an airline and now runs pizza and check cashing franchises. But that's neither here nor there. What matters is that he's got the length, the speed and the explosion to be a matchup nightmare and earn a pass rush grade of 93.4 from Pro Football Focus in 2021, before opponent's realized they had to establish a perimeter around his end and defend it to the last. He's unrefined and a little underweight for his size, so he'll need time, coaching and to do barrels of whey powder like Cocaine Bear eating bricks of the Devil's Dandruff. But all the raw materials are there for building a truly special edge player. He has the first step quickness and speed to leave tackles standing in place grabbing air like idiots. And he can laterally cover all 53 1/3. He's quite possibly the most explosive player in this draft class, but the market for him will be limited due to the patience it will take to maximize his skills. Most importantly, as you'd assume from his choice of schools, motivation, dedication, coachability and willingness to work are not issues with Carter. 

Compares to the Other Leading Brand: Maxx Crosby

The Perfect Patriot: Picking Anderson is obvious to the point it's not worth mentioning, so forget I did. And were they in the market for investing a lot of draft capital in this position this year, I'd go with Van Ness. But this is a draft-and-develop situation. So I'm going with the only choice.

Whom the Patriots will choose: Andre Carter II. A mid-round selection with a practically unlimited ceiling. Someone they can stash behind Judon and Uche. Plus, I don't know if you're aware of this, but I'm not afraid to be the first to say it, Belichick has an affinity for military personnel. Even - though this may go against the grain for Steve Belichick's pride and joy - an Army Black Knight. Belichick has always sought to fill his locker room with team captains and leader types, and let the super leaders like your Matthew Slaters and Devin McCourtys emerge from the pack. Carter is your leader of the future. And won't cost the high pick it would take to get Van Ness. Carter on Day 2. Possibly even Day 3. Book it.

Earlier previews:

Wide receiver

Offensive tackle

Tight end