The Most Important Stat Points To The Cavs Knocking Out The Knicks In 5 Games
In every playoff series there are a handful of stats that you can point to and determine who has the edge. The Cavs vs Knicks series is no different. Looking just at net ratings, this feels like as even of a series as you could possibly have.
The Cavs have more top end talent and the Knicks have a decided advantage in depth. But unlike when a chick whispers "go deeper" in your ear, not having any more depth to give isn't a death sentence in the playoffs. Rotations tighten and stars play big minutes. That's the nature of the beast.
The stat I'm looking at though is opponents three point attempts per game. Thibs is notorious for allowing opponents to shoot the three and often to his team's detriment. The only thing he covers less than the 3 point line is the top of his head with that combover.
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New York is 25th in the league allowing opponents to shoot 36.5 threes per game while the Cavs are the league's best in that category allowing just 30.6 three point attempts. Some simple math will tell you that if the Cavs get six extra attempts per game and hit them at a 37% clip then that's 7 points the Knicks need to make up per game to keep pace. That's a huge disadvantage right from the jump.
It isn't impossible to overcome, but it will take some doing. First of all, many would say the Knicks look their best when RJ Barrett is on the floor. But RJ isn't what you would call a sharp shooter from the outside. He makes just 1.7 per game on the year. Will Thibs be willing to give some of his minutes to shooters if needed?
And the Cavs are allowing 45%(!!!!) made three point attempts on kick outs when both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are on the floor together. So there will quite a chess match between Thibs and JB Bickerstaff to see who can get the advantage with their rotations. Unfortunately, a chess match between Thibs and JB might look more like two Neanderthals smashing chess pieces on a rock than Magnus Carlsen executing a Budapest Gambit.
Add to that the fact that Julius Randle is not 100% and the Cavs have home court advantage, and this feels like an uphill climb for New York.
I think the Cavs inexperience and the environment at The Garden will make this series go 6 or even 7 games, but in the end you just can't outrun numbers. And if the Knicks are allowing that many more 3 point attempts per game then the Cavs have the decided advantage.
But by far the most important stat in this series is the one that came down just a few days ago. When Aircorg picks a winner you can take it to the bank. The freaking dog has 1.3 Million followers on TikTok so he obviously knows what he's talking about.
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Cavs in 5 it is.