The NBA's Stretch Run Has Finally Arrived, And The Stage Is Set For Some All Time Chaos
I don't know about you, but when I woke up and saw that today was only 2/21 and we weren't even close to having basketball back in our lives again for another 3 days, I found that to be extremely unacceptable. I know the players need/could use the break, but enough already. This is easily the longest 7-8 days of the basketball calendar and frankly All Star Weekend did nothing to scratch my itch. If anything, it made things worse. Some people out there say nothing really matters in the NBA until after the All Star Break, well welcome to after the All Star Break. The NBA season officially finally matters!
One quick look across the landscape of the NBA tells you that we're in for one hell of a stretch run. It's going to be a sprint to the finish with pretty much everything on the line. Seeding is still wide open in each conference, the MVP, All NBA teams, absolutely nothing is close to being decided as of today, and that's awesome. If the calendar would hurry the fuck up and get to Thursday night already, we'd be golden.
So I thought because there isn't shit else going on right now outside of a few buyout veterans trying to decide where to best ring chase, let's just regroup quickly and take a look at where everything stands and what you can expect over the final 23-25ish games of the 2022-23 regular season.
First, a snapshot of where things stand
A much more "competitive" race in the East at the moment, there are a couple of things to note when it comes to that conference the rest of the way.
For starters, Giannis's wrist injury luckily avoided being anything serious, but he's going to miss some time
For a team that's still fighting for a #1 seed, not having their best player is obviously something to note. Especially when you currently look at the strength of schedules of each team in the top 7 the rest of the way
If you're someone like the Cavs, you have a great opportunity to close your season out strong considering a top 3 seed certainly isn't out of the question. With the 27th hardest schedule in the league to close the year, the Cavs have a path to move up.
The Sixers have benefitted so far this season by having the 28th toughest schedule in the league to this point. Only the Clippers and Kings have had easier runs. While I don't think they're in jeopardy of falling out of the top 4 given their talent, there is a pretty big difference between the 3 and 4 seeds, especially if you think the Knicks can eventually catch the Nets. They're going to have to juggle resting their stars to make sure they're ready for the playoffs while also having a touch matchup pretty much every night.
For the Celts, they have a similar delicate balance when it comes to rest/seeding. While they were fortunate enough to win huge road playoff games last year, including a Game 7, I'm of the thought that having homecourt for as long as you can should be the goal. They don't have the hardest schedule but it isn't exactly a cakewalk either, and I think every Celts fan wants there to be some built in rest days for the two best players. The easiest way to do that is to create some separation in the race for the 1 seed. With Giannis being out, ths is a great opportunity for the Celts to pounce and get that space that could be valuable in about a month.
In the West, while things may not be as close at the top, things are just as jumbled and up for grabs once you get past the 2nd seed.
The Clippers, now the new home of Russell Westbrook, have the 2nd easiest remaining schedule in the NBA. Kawhi and Paul George are healthy and playing, so is it crazy to think they could finish top 3? Not to me. We have no idea what the Suns will look like or when we get to see it, but they do have the 6th easiest schedule to close out the year. With Booker/KD back, I don't think it's crazy to suggest they'll be pretty good.
This is a conference where you just know tie breakers are going to come into play. Whether it's the back half of the top 6 seeds or the Play In teams, head to head records are going to matter.
Take the Warriors for example. The team that just won't die, even with Steph injured is very much still alive for a top 6 seed. All they have to do is jump the Pels, Wolves, and Mavs. So far, they're 0-2 vs NO, 1-1 vs MIN, and 1-1 vs DAL. They only have 1 more game against the Mavs this season (2 against NO/MIN) but for a lot of the teams like the Warriors, they are basically entering must win territory right now.
Then of course there's the Lakers. LeBron called this the most important 23 regular season games of his career
The Lakers revamped their roster, LeBron and AD are healthy (in theory), and they've sort of run out of time before they need to get their shit together and string together a sustained run of wins. Aas you can see, they have a little bit of work to do to even get into the Play In, where at a minimum they need to jump the Blazers, Jazz, and for the moment, OKC.
Head to head, the Lakers are 2-2 vs POR, 0-2 vs UTA, and 0-1 vs OKC. If you look at the Lakers vs all the Play In Teams, you can see the tough road ahead
vs NO: 2-1
vs: MIN: 0-1
vs GS: 1-1
The good news? The Lakers own the 25th toughest schedule the rest of the way. If they can't figure their shit out with an improved roster and one of the easiest schedules in the league with LeBron and AD being healthy, that would be extremely pathetic. If I were the Lakers, I would try and avoid all tie breaker scenarios. Head to head record is out against teams like POR. One more loss to the Jazz, they lose that one. From there, it's Division leader, which the Lakers are not. From there, if it's against someone in the same division, it comes down to division record. For the sake of this exercise, that would be GS. As of now, the Warriors have a better division record (4-6 vs 2-9). If the Lakers tie with someone not in their division and there is no H2H lead, it becomes Conference record. The issue here is the Lakers are 14-20 vs the West, which is the worst of any top 13 seed. They aren't beating anyone at the moment if that's the tie breaker.
So basically, the Lakers need to not only win, they probably need some help.
Once you get through all the craziness we're about to see when it comes to seeding, you then remember the MVP race still exists and is certainly not set in stone as of 2/21. I know it seemed that way based on the latest MVP poll where Jokic got the overwhelming majority of the vote, but I still consider this wide open.
If Embiid carries the Sixers to a top 2 seed putting up monster numbers while dealing with the toughest schedule? You can't ignore that. If Giannis doesn't miss too much time and the Bucks finish in the top spot? His case looks good. If Jokic keeps the Nuggets in the top spot, he should win it. If Tatum goes crazy and the Celts finish with like 60 wins and they are the 1 seed, he'll get his fair share of votes. That's what makes this stretch run so awesome. The best players need to try and actually play because seeding is still so close, and as a result, their performances should help shape the final sprint to the MVP/All NBA/etc. Everyone hates load management, well we could be in a situation where no team has the luxury of resting stars before the playoffs. That would be tremendous.
But as always, the only thing I truly care about and am praying for is health. I'm relieved Giannis' wrist is OK, I want everyone to enter the postseason at full strength. Let's see the best of the best lace them up when things truly matter most and the pressure is at its highest. I can't remember a year where there were legit cases that 5-6 teams could actually win the NBA title, and what we're about to watch over the final 25 games could very well go a long way in telling us who that might end up being.
Buckle up.