Three Super Bowl Props That History Is SCREAMING For You To Take (responsibly)
Figuring out what bets to pick on Super Bowl Sunday is a daunting task. The options are endless and ChatGPT is worthless.
Is this really the thing that's going to put us data analysts out of a job? (Don't answer this). Well, I did the actual research and whittled it down to three props that are absolute musts to responsibly throw some units on in the Barstool Sportsbook for the big game. I can't guarantee they'll win but they make so much sense you'll feel like an idiot for not betting them if they hit.
#1: Take opening kickoff NOT being a touchback (+111)
I was all over this bet last year too for the following reason:
Like I said in the tweet "numbers and narrative both jive" on this bet. My hope is this year the result will too unlike last year. Minor detail. Still, only three of the last 23 Super Bowl kickoffs resulted in touchbacks so I'm not letting last year get to me. Real betters can't be afraid to be fooled twice. This is EASY MONEY (maybe).
#2: Over 3.5 total field goals +140
PFT has been all over this throughout the season. Since Week 4, prime time games have gone over 3.5 field goals in 33/51 contests (64.7%). This is pretty much absurd.
There's been more feet over shoulders in the NFL after sundown this year than a cold winter's night. In fairness, when you just consider Chiefs or Eagles games this prop has hit 5/10 times. But even so, a coin flip is worth the implied 42% breakeven point the house is presuming with a +140 line. Like every prime time game Week 4 and after, I'm counting on a cold night in Glendale.
#3: UNDER 173.5 combined jersey numbers of all touchdown scorers - including overtime (+116)
The way this prop is written leads me to believe that if a player scores more than once, it only counts on the first touchdown since said player is still technically only one person (or scorer). So two or even three Travis Kelce touchdowns is still only worth 87 points. If that's what I'm lead to believe this is an easy hammer on the under. My analytics say in any week both the Chiefs and Eagles played, they've gone over 173.5 only five times. This includes any defensive or special teams scores:
I'm just going to assume Travis Kelce is going to score which takes half the points away right there. But after that the only big number to really worry about is Dallas Goedert (88). Touchdown rushes from Hurts or a screen to Jerick McKinnon seem very possible which only nets a point each. A.J. Brown (10) and DeVonta Smith (6) don't hurt too bad either and Mahomes' new favorite toy MVS is only an 11. All in all this seems like a really fun bet that will look great until Chris Jones or Josh Sweat scoops and scores with two minutes to go. But I'm sticking with history here and ready to go down swinging if that happens.
The best part of these props though is that if and when they lose, you still get to say you were a sharp and played the numbers. At the end of the day that's all that matters (if you lose). But if you win, you get to be the smartest person in the world. Or at least smarter than the stupid AI bot who sat it's chicken shit ass on the fence.
My guess is 2/3 of these hit and we'll get screwed with one of them. I'll take that any day. That's called diversification. Anyway, if you're with me, let's ride together to a (responsible) sized fortune.
- Jeffro